Competitive bidding — The probability of winning

A company bidding by sealed tender needs to know the relationship between their bid price and their chances of winning the contract. Previously published models for computing the probability of winning are examined and found to be inaccurate. The problem is reformulated, and a new general predictive model for computing the probability of winning is developed. The method of computation is illustrated by a simple worked example.     

Development and correlates of alcohol use from ages 13-20

This study examined alcohol use development from ages 13-20 years. The sample comprised 256 youth (50.4% female; 51.2% White, 48.8% African American) assessed annually for 6 years. A cohort-sequential latent growth model was used to model categorical alcohol use (non-use vs. use). Covariates included gender, race, income, parent marital status, risk taking, spiritual beliefs, parent alcohol use, family alcohol problems, family cohesion, friends' alcohol use, and normative peer use. The alcohol use trajectory increased steadily with age. Risk taking, friends' alcohol use, and normative peer use were positively associated with higher initial rates of alcohol use. Initial parent alcohol use and positive change in parents' and friends' alcohol use over time were related to an increase in alcohol use from ages 13-20 years.     

Productivity of highly skilled immigrants: economists in the postwar period

Prior work finds declining immigrant quality in the postwar period that is linked to source-country and skill-composition changes associated with the 1965 Immigration Act. This paper uses a unique panel of foreign- and native-born American Economic Association members to show that the highly skilled experienced a similar shift away from European migrants toward those from Asia. However, the findings do not indicate that this change in source-country composition has been accompanied by a decline in quality; rather, the most recent cohorts of foreign-born economists appear to be more productive than their native counterparts.     

Rolling with the shakes: an insight into teenagers’ perceptions of recovery after the Canterbury earthquakes

Natural disasters are harmful worldwide events that inflict multiple psychosocial impacts on disaster-exposed individuals. A significant proportion of affected individuals are teenagers (13–18 years old) who, compared with adults, have been historically overlooked in disaster research. The literature is particularly sparse concerning teenagers’ recovery from natural disasters, specifically what recovery means to them and the contributing factors towards their positive recovery. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to gain deeper insight into this largely unexplored area by conducting five focus groups with teenagers (16–18 years) who experienced at least one of the Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquakes since and including the initial September 2010 earthquake. This study directly asked teenagers about their recovery over the three years after the initial earthquakes, with data being analysed using thematic analysis. Two main themes were identified: (1) perceptions of recovery, with three sub-themes (i) knowledge and being less frightened, (ii) talking about the earthquakes and (iii) shift in perspectives; and (2) contributing factors to recovery, with three sub-themes (i) participation in the community response, (ii) returning to school and (iii) the rebuild of Christchurch. These factors provide insight into how we can better support the recovery process for disaster-exposed teenagers to reduce long-term distress.     

A common-features analysis of Amsterdam and London financial markets during the eighteenth century

We examine the financial linkage between the London and Amsterdam financial markets using stock prices recorded in each market over the period 1723-94 in conjunction with tests for common trends, cycles, and regime shifts. These tests reveal a surprising degree of integration between the markets as their prices move together in both the short and long run. Moreover, shocks to the assets translate quickly and accurately between markets. It also appears that Dutch investment did not destabilize London markets and stock prices in London were the primary determinant of prices in Amsterdam.     

Risk factors for suicide in Taiwanese college students

OBJECTIVE: The authors investigated the personality characteristics, psychopathology, parenting style, and family function among Taiwanese college students with high, moderate, and low suicidal risks. PARTICIPANTS: The sample included 2,919 first-year college students (1,414 men, 1,505 women) from a university in Taipei, Taiwan. METHODS: A self-administered questionnaire assessed domains covering demographics, personality, psychopathology, frequency of substance use, parenting style, family functioning, and suicidal behaviors. The authors used mixed models for data analysis. RESULTS: The authors observed a positive linear trend between increased suicidal tendency and levels of neuroticism, harm avoidance, novelty seeking, psychopathology, and parenting styles of low affection, overprotection, and authoritarian controlling. Use of tobacco and alcohol and impaired family adaptation and cohesion were associated with high and moderate suicidal risks. CONCLUSIONS: Personality, psychopathology, substance use, and familial factors are important correlates of suicidal risks among college students in Taiwan. Optimal suicide prevention strategies in the college setting should incorporate the multiple facets of suicidal risks.     

Improving homeless persons' utilisation of primary care: lessons to be learned from an outreach programme in The Netherlands

Elissen AMJ, Van Raak AJA, Derckx EWCC, Vrijhoef HJM. Improving homeless persons' utilisation of primary care: lessons to be learned from an outreach programme in The Netherlands Faced with rising homelessness, countries around the world are in need of innovative approaches to caring for those without shelter, who, more often than not, suffer from severe health problems. We conducted a case study of an innovative Dutch Primary Care for the Homeless (PCH) programme to gain insight into clients' demographic characteristics, health problems and service use, and to develop an explanation for its success in increasing the latter. Our analyses are based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative data. The results of the study suggest that the success of the PCH programme can be explained by the providers' pragmatism and will to adapt their mode of care provision to the behavioural patterns and needs of their homeless clients.     

Midlife Women Online: Evaluation of an Internet-Based Program to Prevent Unintended Pregnancy & STIs

Background: Midlife women are an underserved population in the areas of unintended pregnancy and STI prevention yet remain at risk for both health conditions. Methods: A randomized controlled trial of an Internet-based multimedia program to reduce risk of unintended pregnancy and STIs among midlife women was conducted with 164 women ages 40–55 years of age. Results: Women in the treatment condition compared to the control condition reported significant gains in attitudes, self-efficacy, and behavioral intentions at posttest. Conclusion: Interventions specifically targeted to midlife women can impact constructs known to reduce risk. Implications for future research and intervention development are presented.