Modelling daily multivariate pollutant data at multiple sites

Summary. This paper considers the spatiotemporal modelling of four pollutants measured daily at eight monitoring sites in London over a 4-year period. Such multiple-pollutant data sets measured over time at multiple sites within a region of interest are typical. Here, the modelling was carried out to provide the exposure for a study investigating the health effects of air pollution. Alternative objectives include the design problem of the positioning of a new monitoring site, or for regulatory purposes to determine whether environmental standards are being met. In general, analyses are hampered by missing data due, for example, to a particular pollutant not being measured at a site, a monitor being inactive by design (e.g. a 6-day monitoring schedule) or because of an unreliable or faulty monitor. Data of this type are modelled here within a dynamic linear modelling framework, in which the dependences across time, space and pollutants are exploited. Throughout the approach is Bayesian, with implementation via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.     

Taking Stock of Neighbourhood Planning in England 2011–2016

Neighbourhood planning (NP) as enabled by the 2011 Localism Act in England has precipitated a considerable literature discussing its potential, limitations and likely shortcomings referenced against government rhetoric and the reporting of initial experiences of the process. This paper provides an overview of the current literature on neighbourhood planning and sets out how it has been received and practised across England drawing on empirical evidence. The extent of take-up and the experience of those involved in the first five years of neighbourhood planning is used to consider how community-led planning may be designed and used following operational principles of inclusivity, capacity-building and adding value.     

Improved bridge constructs for stochastic differential equations

We consider the task of generating discrete-time realisations of a nonlinear multivariate diffusion process satisfying an Itô stochastic differential equation conditional on an observation taken at a fixed future time-point. Such realisations are typically termed diffusion bridges. Since, in general, no closed form expression exists for the transition densities of the process of interest, a widely adopted solution works with the Euler–Maruyama approximation, by replacing the intractable transition densities with Gaussian approximations. However, the density of the conditioned discrete-time process remains intractable, necessitating the use of computationally intensive methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. Designing an efficient proposal mechanism which can be applied to a noisy and partially observed system that exhibits nonlinear dynamics is a challenging problem, and is the focus of this paper. By partitioning the process into two parts, one that accounts for nonlinear dynamics in a deterministic way, and another as a residual stochastic process, we develop a class of novel constructs that bridge the residual process via a linear approximation. In addition, we adapt a recently proposed construct to a partial and noisy observation regime. We compare the performance of each new construct with a number of existing approaches, using three applications.     

Inquiring Systems and Development Led Inquiry: Uniting the Efforts of Farmers,Development Professionals,and Researchers

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - This paper introduces Development Led Inquiry (DLI) as an approach to improve situations incorporating relationships...     

Trust and the Dilemmas of Suicide Risk Assessment in Non-government Mental Health Services

Reducing suicide rates is a national mental health priority as over 2,200 people die from suicide each year in Australia. Increasingly, nongovernment organisations (NGOs) provide services to people experiencing severe and persistent mental illnesses—a significant cohort at risk of suicide. While clinical services are generally seen as the arbiters of risk, little is known of how suicide risk assessments are undertaken in NGOs. This article reports the findings of a survey-based pilot study of 44 frontline workers in mental health-focused NGOs in Tasmania, Australia, with the aim of sketching a preliminary picture of this under-studied terrain. We identified the assessment practices utilised by workers, and the challenges and dilemmas they experienced in navigating issues of trust in suicide risk assessment in contexts where they often felt vulnerable and under-prepared. We argue that these early findings demonstrate the need for organisations to foster cultures of trust to facilitate both the activities of relationship building between practitioners and clients, and those of monitoring risk.     

Influence of National Qualifications Frameworks in Conceptualising Feedback to Students

Social work students in Britain receive feedback on a range of academic and practice issues as they progress through qualifying courses, however the way in which feedback differs to reflect the increasing complexity of learning as the course progresses is unclear. There is little, if any, guidance at a national level and the most widely known documents that provide information about the hierarchy of qualifications are the National Qualifications Frameworks (NQFs). Despite the widespread acceptance of NQFs there is little evidence supporting their use in professional areas such as social work. This study uses a documentary analysis to critique the Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF). The findings suggest that there are fundamental difficulties with the SCQF and its value in helping academics to better conceptualise feedback that reflects the increasing complexity of learning throughout the social work qualifying course. Whilst the SCQF is specific to a Scottish context, it is suggested that the inherent limitations and dominance of a neo-liberal ideology are common to other NQFs. It may be necessary to create the conditions where academics and students are able to discuss and debate the merits of NQFs and their implementation in social work qualifying courses.     

Affective practices,care and bioscience: a study of two laboratories

Scientific knowledge‐making is not just a matter of experiments, modelling and fieldwork. It also involves affective, embodied and material practices (Wetherell, 2012) which can be understood together as ‘matters of care’ (Puig de la Bellacasa, 2011). In this paper we explore how affect spans and connects material, subjective and organizational practices, focusing in particular on the patterns of care we encountered in an observational study of two bioscience laboratories. We explore the preferred emotional subjectivities of each lab and their relation to material practice. We go on to consider flows and clots in the circulation of affect and their relation to care through an exploration of belonging and humour in the labs. We show how being a successful scientist or group of researchers involves a careful choreography of affect in relation to materials, colleagues and others to produce scientific results, subjects and workplaces. We end by considering how thinking with care troubles dominant constructions of scientific practice, successful scientific selves and collectives.     

Comparing Social Work Students’ Perceptions of Risk Using Online Discussion Fora: Lessons Learned from a European Pilot Project

Comparisons of international child welfare systems have identified two basic orientations to practice; a ‘child protection’ orientation and a ‘child welfare’ orientation, which are founded upon fundamentally different values and assumptions regarding the family, the origins of childcare problems, and the proper role of the state in relation to the family. This paper describes a project which sought to compare how undergraduate social work students from three European Universities perceive risk in referrals about the welfare of children and to explore the impact of different cultural, ideological and educational contexts on the way in which risk is constructed by students. Students from Northern Ireland, Germany and Poland examined three vignettes via 10 online discussion fora each of which provided a narrative summary of their discussion. The paper presents some findings from the analysis of the qualitative data emerging from the student discussions and draws out the lessons learned in terms of how the project was designed and implemented using online discussion fora.     

East Asian childbearing patterns and policy developments

Childbearing behavior in East Asian countries has changed rapidly during the past half century from an average of five to seven children per family, to replacement-level fertility, and subsequently to unprecedentedly low levels, the lowest in the world. This article analyzes fertility trends in Hong Kong, Japan, singapore, south Korea, and Taiwan using cohort fertility data and methods, then examines social and economic causes of the childbearing trends, and surveys policies pursued to reverse the fertility trends. Postponement of childbearing started in the 1970s with continuously fewer delayed births being "recuperated," which resulted in ultra-low fertility. A rapid expansion of education and employment among women in a patriarchal environment has generated a stark dilemma for women who would like to combine childbearing with a career. Policy responses have been slow, with a more serious attempt to address issues in recent years. Thus far public and private institutions are not devoting sufficient attention to generating broad social change supportive of parenting.     

Racial Wage Disparity in US Cities

This paper estimates the conditional wage gaps between black and white full-time male workers at the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level using data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. Censuses. The magnitudes of the wage gaps are found to vary substantially across location. As predicted in Becker's (The economics of discrimination, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1957) seminal theory on wage discrimination, we find that the wage gaps are greater in MSAs that have a larger proportion of black workers in the labor force. This is the most consistent result across all specifications and years. We also find the gaps to be greater where there is an overrepresented black population in jail and a more segregated population if the MSA is in the South. The proportion of workers covered by a collective bargaining agreement in the private sector is associated with greater relative black earnings. We find that although the relationship between race and wages has diminished over time as famously suggested in Wilson (The declining significance of race: Blacks and changing American institutions, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1978), the significance of race remains.