刻意创新

我们大多数人都认同创新是成长的关键途径。问题是如何创新?许多企业依靠突发机遇。也就是说,他们指望某个人提出产品或服务方面的点子,然后从中获利。然而有些时候,企业必须发掘比以往更多的创意,并先于竞争对手将创意化为切实可行的产品与服务。此时,企业便不能再依靠机缘巧合了。我们需要可持续、可重复的创新方法。     

Quantifying the Establishment Likelihood of Invasive Alien Species Introductions Through Ports with Application to Honeybees in Australia

The cost of an uncontrolled incursion of invasive alien species (IAS) arising from undetected entry through ports can be substantial, and knowledge of port‐specific risks is needed to help allocate limited surveillance resources. Quantifying the establishment likelihood of such an incursion requires quantifying the ability of a species to enter, establish, and spread. Estimation of the approach rate of IAS into ports provides a measure of likelihood of entry. Data on the approach rate of IAS are typically sparse, and the combinations of risk factors relating to country of origin and port of arrival diverse. This presents challenges to making formal statistical inference on establishment likelihood. Here we demonstrate how these challenges can be overcome with judicious use of mixed‐effects models when estimating the incursion likelihood into Australia of the European (Apis mellifera) and Asian (A. cerana) honeybees, along with the invasive parasites of biosecurity concern they host (e.g., Varroa destructor). Our results demonstrate how skewed the establishment likelihood is, with one‐tenth of the ports accounting for 80% or more of the likelihood for both species. These results have been utilized by biosecurity agencies in the allocation of resources to the surveillance of maritime ports.     

Using Difference Scores to Inform Therapy Practice: Differences in Perceptions of Attachment Behaviors between Partners in a Clinical Sample

Using clinically relevant research methodology, this study focuses on differences (cross‐partner difference scores) in perceptions of attachment behaviors (emotional accessibility, responsiveness, and engagement) between partners in couples therapy. In general, findings suggest that higher levels of self‐enhancement attachment behaviors (participant perceives self as demonstrating more attachment behaviors than the partner's ratings of the participant) are associated with lower relationship satisfaction and greater relationship instability. The association between attachment behavior difference scores and measures of relationship health is mediated through partner perceived positive communication. These results suggest that differences in perceptions between partners’ level of attachment behaviors are an important clinical construct for therapy. As such, clinical recommendations for addressing self‐enhancing attachment behaviors, and the mediating role of positive communication, are discussed with recommendations for researchers.     

Professional quality of life of adult protective service workers

Adult Protective Services (APS) workers are exposed to substantial occupational hazards and job stress, but these stressors are underdocumented. Therefore, we sought to describe APS workers’ work environments and responses to occupational hazards and stressors, including compassion fatigue, burnout, and secondary traumatic stress. Survey data were gathered with closed-ended questionnaires administered to APS workers in an urban setting. Virtually all workers (97%) reported exposure to one or more environmental hazards in their work, and 80% reported hazard exposure in the past month. Workers also reported mixed responses to their work environment and to experiences with supervision. A sizable minority (22.7%) was at high risk for burnout, 24.6% were at risk for secondary traumatic stress, and 19.9% reported low compassion satisfaction. The results document multiple stressors in APS work. The APS partner is committed to ongoing efforts to better support its staff, and these findings can inform future efforts to enhance supervisor support and worker self-care, to minimize burnout and secondary traumatic stress.     

ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN AIR POLLUTION AND HOSPITAL VISITS FOR CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES IN THE ELDERLY IN SYDNEY USING BAYESIAN STATISTICAL METHODS

Using generalized linear models (GLMs), Jalaludin  et al. (2006;  J. Exposure Analysis and Epidemiology   16 , 225–237) studied the association between the daily number of visits to emergency departments for cardiovascular disease by the elderly (65+) and five measures of ambient air pollution. Bayesian methods provide an alternative approach to classical time series modelling and are starting to be more widely used. This paper considers Bayesian methods using the dataset used by Jalaludin  et al.  (2006) , and compares the results from Bayesian methods with those obtained by Jalaludin  et al.  (2006) using GLM methods.     

Non‐accidental injury and bone fragility disorders: the need for a multidisciplinary perspective

A case is presented of a child who was initially diagnosed with osteogenesis imperfecta following a skull fracture. However, she later presented with multiple fractures and soft tissue injuries which were considered to be due to non‐accidental injury. It can be perplexing distinguishing accidental and non‐accidental injury in children where a bone fragility disorder has been suspected. A combination of a careful review of the history, a thorough examination and expert review of the radiology is imperative. DNA testing can be helpful. Multidisciplinary case review, taking into account the social history and any concerns professionals have about the family, is invaluable in informing a difficult diagnosis. In this context, there is a definite role for other agencies in challenging the diagnosis or exclusion of non‐accidental injury. Professionals should be willing to challenge the exclusion of non‐accidental injury when such exclusion is not evidence based. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

It is risky business: can social capital reduce risk-taking behaviours among disadvantaged youth?

This study addresses the gap in the research for sound multidimensional assessment of social capital and its relationship with risk-taking behaviour among youths living in disadvantaged communities. Social capital and adolescent risk-taking outcomes were studied cross-sectionally in 1371 secondary students living in two disadvantaged communities within Australia. First, a multidimensional measure of social capital was developed and tested using confirmatory factor analysis. Then, the associations between social capital and a range of youth risk-taking behaviours were examined using structural equation modelling across five-year groups (Grades 7–12). With a few exceptions, higher levels of social capital and belongingness within the school and community were generally associated with decreases in smoking, alcohol and drug consumption, and physical violence. Some outcomes were more strongly associated with family and peer social capital, while others associated more with neighbour and community social capital, indicating that attempts to build social capital need to be targeted across the whole community. This study supports the notion that social capital can be measured empirically and is beneficial in alleviating many of the detrimental health outcomes commonly associated with risk-taking behaviours during adolescence.     

Migration to the US and marital mobility

When immigrants enter the US they typically access a marriage market with a larger supply of educated spouses compared to the marriage market in their home countries. Absent any selectivity bias, this access should increase the likelihood that migrants ‘marry-up’ in terms of education. We combine survey data on British and German immigrants in the US with data on natives in Britain and Germany to estimate the causal effect of migration on educational mobility through cross-national marriage. To control for selective mating, we instrument educational attainment using government spending on education in the years each person was of school-age. To control for selective migration, we instrument the migration decision using inflows of immigrants to the US during puberty and early adulthood. We find strong selectivity effects that work against the positive prospects of the US marriage market. All migrants give up spousal education in exchange for US entry and assimilation. Migrant men also give up spousal education because they cannot compete with native men as bread-earners. Migrant women have some advantage in the US marriage market, as they can compete with native women in home production.     

A global count of the extreme poor in 2012: data issues,methodology and initial results

The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity (PPP) conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the World Bank’s international poverty line. In revising the line, we have sought to minimize changes to the real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs), so as to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the World Bank’s twin goals – which were set with respect to that line. In particular, the new line was obtained by inflating the same fifteen national poverty lines – originally used by Ravallion et al. (World Bank Econ. Rev. 23(2): 163–184 2009) to construct the $1.25 line – to 2011 prices in local currency units, and then converting them to US dollars using 2011 PPP conversion factors. With a small approximation, this procedure yields a new international poverty line of $1.90 per person per day. In combination with other changes described in the paper, this revision leads to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence for 2011: from 14.5 % using the old method to 14.1 % using the new method. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 % of the world’s population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats and limitations of the approach taken.