Nonparametric Tree‐Based Predictive Modeling of Storm Outages on an Electric Distribution Network

This article compares two nonparametric tree‐based models, quantile regression forests (QRF) and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), for predicting storm outages on an electric distribution network in Connecticut, USA. We evaluated point estimates and prediction intervals of outage predictions for both models using high‐resolution weather, infrastructure, and land use data for 89 storm events (including hurricanes, blizzards, and thunderstorms). We found that spatially BART predicted more accurate point estimates than QRF. However, QRF produced better prediction intervals for high spatial resolutions (2‐km grid cells and towns), while BART predictions aggregated to coarser resolutions (divisions and service territory) more effectively. We also found that the predictive accuracy was dependent on the season (e.g., tree‐leaf condition, storm characteristics), and that the predictions were most accurate for winter storms. Given the merits of each individual model, we suggest that BART and QRF be implemented together to show the complete picture of a storm's potential impact on the electric distribution network, which would allow for a utility to make better decisions about allocating prestorm resources.     

What Novice Family Therapists Experience During a Session… A Qualitative Study of Novice Therapists' Inner Conversations During the Session

“What do novice family therapists experience during a session with a couple or family?” This is the central question in this article. A videotape‐assisted recall procedure was used to study novice family therapists’ inner conversations. The therapists' reflections were analyzed using thematic analysis. This resulted in a coding system that distinguishes four main domains: (a) reflections concerning the self; (b) reflections about the therapy process; (c) reflections on emotions about the family members; and (d) managing the session as well as own emotions. The study furthermore revealed that during a session, novice family therapists experience strong emotions, such as self‐criticism and irritation. Both emotions may encompass dangers, as well as opportunities for the therapeutic alliance and the process.