The Italian Labour Force Survey to estimate fertility

The own-children method (OCM) applied to the Italian Labour Force Survey (ILFS) is an alternative way to give information on fertility for the years before the survey. By deriving children information and the population at risk on the basis of parents’ characteristics, a large-scale dataset for fertility analysis in Italy becomes available, also to reconstruct event histories. The quality assessment provided by comparing the total fertility rate (TFR) calculated on ILFS with the official regional and national TFRs by ISTAT gives us usable outcomes.     

Marital and Reproductive Behavior in Italy After 1995: Bridging the Gap with Western Europe?

Despite a delay of 20–25 years, when it comes to cohabitation, Italy has now begun to resemble other Western countries. In addition, the increase in legal separations has accelerated since 1995, although their number still remains far from that observed in countries such as the USA, the UK, and France. Finally, Italy’s fertility decline has come to a halt: the cohort of women born in the early 1970s will likely have the same TFR as those born in the mid-1960s (around 1.55). Moreover, in the Centre–North areas, period TFR rose from 1.1 in 1995 to 1.35 children per woman 10 years later. The territorial diffusion of cohabitation, legal separation, out-of-wedlock births, and fertility recovery overlaps closely with that of the decline in births during the first half of the twentieth century. A similar geographical pattern has been observed for the diffusion of school enrolment, industrialization, secularization, and (during the last 20 years) foreign immigration.     

A 6/5-approximation algorithm for the maximum 3-cover problem

In the maximum cover problem, we are given a collection of sets over a ground set of elements and a positive integer w, and we are asked to compute a collection of at most w sets whose union contains the maximum number of elements from the ground set. This is a fundamental combinatorial optimization problem with applications to resource allocation. We study the simplest APX-hard variant of the problem where all sets are of size at most 3 and we present a 6/5-approximation algorithm, improving the previously best known approximation guarantee. Our algorithm is based on the idea of first computing a large packing of disjoint sets of size 3 and then augmenting it by performing simple local improvements.     

The Effect of Changing Sexual, Marital and Contraceptive Behaviour on Conceptions, Abortions, and Births

A model is proposed to estimate the number of conceptions during a single year using scarce survey data, official data on births and abortions for the two years following the survey, and some parameters on contraception failure. The model is fitted for 1979, 1989, 1994 to Puglia, a Southern Italian region with a population of 4 millions. Simulations are also produced.The decrease in births is caused mainly by the decline in wanted births, whereas the decline in abortions is caused by diffusion of the pill, IUD, and condom. The rapid increase in the proportion of never-married women explains the slow decrease in unwanted births and conceptions, compared to the fast decline in wanted ones. This situation is different compared to other Western countries (e.g. France, UK, and USA) where the decline in TFR during the 1960s and 1970s was largely caused by the decline in unwanted fertility, thanks to improved modern contraception and sterilisation.     

Innovation and tradition: Reproductive and marital behaviour in Italy in the 1970s and 1980s

Fertility, nuptiality, reproductive behaviour and living arrangements of never-married women and legally separated women are examined in order to underline differences and similarities to other Western countries. Prospects for the future are also discussed to see whether Italy is in line with the frameworks recently proposed to interpret demographic changes. The results show that delay in the timing of events cannot provide a satisfactory explanation of Italian peculiarities.On examine ici la fécondité, la nuptialité, le comportement procréateur et l'organisation des modes de vie des femmes jamais mariées et de celles séparées légalement en vue de souligner les differénces et les similitudes avec d'autres pays occidentaux. Des perspectives d'avenir sont également discutées pour voir si l'Italie se conforme aux cadres récemment proposés pour interpréter les changements démographiques. Les résultats montrent que les délais d'apparition des changements ne peuvent fournir une explication satisfaisante des particularités.     

Population Dynamics in Italy in the Middle Ages: New Insights from Archaeological Findings

Studies of settlements in Italy indicate that during the Early Middle Ages (6th–9th centuries) the Italian population was stagnant, whereas a slow but persistent growth followed during the High Middle Ages (10th–13th). However, the components of the dynamics of the Italian population in the long period between the Justinian Plague (around 565 in Italy) and the Black Death (1348) are largely unknown. In this article, data from anthropometric analysis of the skeletons in 154 Italian cemeteries that date between the 1st century BCE and the 13th century are used to gain new insights on mortality of adults and nutrition. Adult mortality was higher during the Early Middle Ages than during the Roman Empire and the High Middle Ages, suggesting that the stagnation of population was determined by higher mortality. During the Early Middle Ages, however, nutritional levels were higher, as suggested by taller statures, more widespread meat consumption, and longer periods of breastfeeding. We discuss some possible research lines to resolve this apparent contradiction.     

Cohort Replacement and Homeostasis in World Population, 1950–2100

Using a simple empirical approach, we analyze world and regional‐level cohort replacement as determined by the key components of population dynamics, i.e. fertility, survival, and migration, for 1950–2010, using UN data. We define two kinds of homeostatic relationships among these components: fertility responses to mortality change (type I) and migration responses to changes in net reproduction (type II), and show that both can be observed to some degree in this period. We examine the extent of cohort replacement embodied in the medium‐variant UN population projections over 2010–2100 and consider how the international migration assumptions made in such projections would be affected by a homeostatic perspective.     

On the Methodological Framework of Composite Indices: A Review of the Issues of Weighting,Aggregation, and Robustness

Social Indicators Research - In recent times, composite indicators have gained astounding popularity in a wide variety of research areas. Their adoption by global institutions has further captured...     

Tacit consent: the Church and birth control in northern Italy

This article employs novel documentation to examine ways in which the Church's moral rules on contraception were (or were not) communicated to parishioners in a predominantly Catholic context in a period of rapid fertility decline: the diocese of Padua, in the northeastern Italian region of Veneto, during the first half of the twentieth century. The account is based on documents that have until now been overlooked: the moral cases discussed during the periodic meetings among Padua priests in the years 1916–58, and the written answers provided by priests in response to a question asked of them concerning their efforts to combat the limiting of births. This documentation reveals the limited effect on the reproductive behavior of the position of the Catholic Church against birth control.