Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

Children's involvement in their parents' divorce: implications for practice

The paper reports findings from a research study that explored children's experience of divorce. It shows that children experience parental divorce as a crisis in their lives but that they are able to mobilise internal and external resources to regain a new point of balance. In doing so, children demonstrate the degree to which they are active and competent participants in the process of family dissolution. The implications of the data are then considered in relation to engaging with children involved in divorce and in relation to some of the cultural presumptions that might militate against hearing what they have to say about their experiences. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Case study in the Bayesian analysis of a cost‐effectiveness trial in the evaluation of health care technologies: Depression

We present a case study based on a depression study that will illustrate the use of Bayesian statistics in the economic evaluation of cost‐effectiveness data, demonstrate the benefits of the Bayesian approach (whilst honestly recognizing any deficiencies) with respect to frequentist methods, and provide details of using the methods, including computer code where appropriate. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Power‐base Research in Marketing Channels: A Narrative Review

This paper provides a contemporary and comprehensive review of work in the marketing channel field that is based on French and Raven's power‐base theory. It traces the development of theoretic, conceptual and methodological orthodoxies from the 1970s. Mirroring the movement towards the relationship marketing paradigm, the paper considers the theory's empirical contribution to knowledge of power, conflict, trust and commitment in marketing channels. Limitations relating to inconsistency of treatment, contradictory findings and the simplification of complex phenomena are identified. Nevertheless, current work extends power‐base theory to other cultures, other styles of research and to the area of supply chains. The review raises questions about the value of contribution made using this theory and notes the surprising absence within the channels literature of the broader, current debate about power. To illustrate, the paper shows how Clegg's (1989. Frameworks of Power. London: Sage) circuits of power framework, if applied to channel contexts, could address forms of power that are invisible, anonymous and not necessarily negative. Applications and methods are discussed, opening a space wherein a broadened understanding of power is integrated within a focus upon cooperative channels.     

Providing a secure base for LGBTQ young people in foster care: The role of foster carers

The experiences and needs of lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans and queer/questioning (LGBTQ) young people in care have been overlooked in England, in both policy and research. This paper reports on findings from the first study of LGBTQ young people in care in England and focuses on the nature of foster carers' experiences and perspectives on caring for LGBTQ young people. Qualitative interviews regarding the fostering role in caring for LGBTQ young people were conducted with a sample of foster carers (n = 26) and analysed thematically. Foster carers described the importance of offering LGBTQ young people not only the nurturing relationships that all children in care need but also availability, sensitivity and acceptance to help young people manage stigma and other challenges associated with minority sexual orientation and gender identity. The Secure Base caregiving model provided a framework for analysing the different dimensions of these relationships. Understanding caregiving roles and relationships for LGBTQ young people in care has important implications for recruiting, training, matching and supporting foster carers to care for LGBTQ young people effectively.     

Symbolic Compliance and Student Concerns: Legal Endogeneity and Title IX at American Colleges and Universities

This article considers how American colleges and universities responded to rapid legal change around Title IX immediately following the 2011 release of the Office for Civil Rights’ Dear Colleague Letter. By analyzing the content of 250 campus sexual harassment policies, this article finds that contrary to the predictions of the employment discrimination literature, which suggests that the largest, most visible institutions in a field are the most likely to embed markers of symbolic compliance in their formal policies, small baccalaureate colleges are more likely to include references to the law in their formal documents than their research university peers do. To understand this intriguing finding, the article then analyzes 15 interviews with campus administrators at research universities and baccalaureate colleges to uncover the distinct logics of symbolic compliance and student concerns that differentially inform how actors at different kinds of institutions inhabit their roles and endogenously interpret new Title IX regulations in their formal policies and campus practices. In doing so, this article illuminates the ways in which processes of legal endogeneity differ across institution types within the broader field of higher education.     

Happiness is not Enough: Cognitive Judgements as Indicators of National Wellbeing

The European Social Survey, on which this issue of the journal focuses, is a 30-nation multi-funded survey series measuring attitude change. Started in 2001, it is characterised by unusually high standards of sampling and data equivalence. Its data are made available on-line with equal access to all, and have already attracted over 20,000 users. Many papers, articles and books based on the ESS have already appeared. But none has yet employed the data—whether alone or with other sources—to derive indicators of citizens’ cognitive judgements of their society. A recent EC grant is enabling the authors to fill this gap, covering topics such as trust in national institutions, tolerance, social cohesion, social trust and fear of crime. The aim is to be able to monitor changes over time in the distance between what citizens believe their society ought to be in these respects and how they actually perceive it to be.