Objective Testing Procedures in Linear Models: Calibration of the p-values

Abstract.  An optimal Bayesian decision procedure for testing hypothesis in normal linear models based on intrinsic model posterior probabilities is considered. It is proven that these posterior probabilities are simple functions of the classical F -statistic, thus the evaluation of the procedure can be carried out analytically through the frequentist analysis of the posterior probability of the null. An asymptotic analysis proves that, under mild conditions on the design matrix, the procedure is consistent. For any testing hypothesis it is also seen that there is a one-to-one mapping – which we call calibration curve – between the posterior probability of the null hypothesis and the classical bi p -value. This curve adds substantial knowledge about the possible discrepancies between the Bayesian and the p -value measures of evidence for testing hypothesis. It permits a better understanding of the serious difficulties that are encountered in linear models for interpreting the p -values. A specific illustration of the variable selection problem is given.     

The Relationship Between Pathological Gambling and Sensation Seeking: The Role of Subscale Scores

Research investigating the relationship between gambling and sensation seeking has yet to establish conclusively whether pathological gamblers (PGs) are more or less sensation seeking than nonpathological gamblers (NPGs). Sensation seeking is usually measured with the Zuckerman et al. (J Consult Clin Psychol 46:139–149, 1978) SS Scale form V (SSS-V). Whereas previous studies relied on the SSS-V total score, the current study uses two samples to demonstrate the importance of the SSS-V subscales, which include Thrill and Adventure Seeking (TA), Experience Seeking (ES), Disinhibition (DS), and Boredom Susceptibility (BS). In two samples, strong intrascale correlations between DS and BS, and between TA and ES, suggest that certain subscales reflect similar underlying characteristics. In both samples PGs displayed higher scores than NPGs on the DS and BS subscales, with mean differences in Sample 2 reaching significant levels for both DS and BS. Results support the notion that the SSS-V can be divided into concepts reflecting actual behavior, based on the DS and BS subscales, and hypothetical behavior, based on the TA and ES subscales. Furthermore, PGs appear to have a preference for the more behavioral subscales while NPGs show a preference for the more hypothetical subscales. Reasons for the subscale divisions and preferences are discussed.     

Comparing the Utility of a Modified Diagnostic Interview for Gambling Severity (DIGS) with the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) as a Research Screen in College Students

The South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) is compared in reliability to a modified version of the Diagnostic Interview for Gambling Severity (DIGS-S) for use as a pathological gambling (PG) screen in college students. Seventy-two undergraduates (83.3% male, mean age of 18.8) from the University of Georgia completed the measures, completing a longitudinal design with 3 sessions over a 2-month time period. The DIGS-S and the SOGS demonstrated good internal consistency over the 3 sessions, with Cronbach’s Alphas ranging from 0.73 to 0.89, as well as strong concurrent validity, with correlations of .50 to .80 (Ps < .001) between the 2 measures across the 3 sessions. Both Cronbach’s alpha and test–retest reliability were higher with the DIGS-S than the SOGS. Given this, and given that the DIGS directly measures symptoms of pathological gambling, future research could benefit from the use of the DIGS-S as a PG screening tool in a college-aged sample.     

Long distance intimacy: class,gender and intergenerational relations between mothers and children in Filipino transnational families

Abstract In this article I address transnational intergenerational relations between Filipino migrant mothers and their young adult children and examine how families achieve intimacy across great distances. I do this by identifying and examining the transnational communication methods Filipino migrant families use to develop intimacy, in other words familiarity, across borders. In my analysis, I address how political economy and gender shape the dynamics of transnational communication. By showing how economic conditions and gender shape transnational family communication, I provide a socially thick lens through which to understand the formation of transnational intimacy and emphasize how larger systems of inequality shape the lives of the children left behind by the global migration of women.     

The Use of Base Rate Information as a Function of Experienced Consistency

Three experiments examine the effect of base rate consistency under direct experience. Base rate consistency was manipulated by blocking trials and setting base rate choice reinforcement to be either consistent or inconsistent across trial blocks. Experiment 1 shows that, contrary to the usual finding, participants use base rate information more than individuating information when it is consistent, but less when it is inconsistent. In Experiment 2, this effect was replicated, and transferred in verbal questions posed subsequently. Despite experience with consistent base rates increasing sensitivity to base rates in word problems, verbal responses were far from normative. In Experiment 3, participants’ use of base rates was once again moderated by its consistency, but this effect was itself moderated by the diagnosticity of base rate information. Participants were highly accurate in estimating experienced base rates. These studies demonstrate that base rate usage is complex and a function of how base rates are presented (experienced versus summary statistics) and response format (choice proportions versus probability estimates). Knowledge of base rates was insufficient for proper usage in verbal word problems. Although choice proportions showed a sophisticated sensitivity to experienced base rate information, participants seemed unable to demonstrate a similar sophistication when given typical word problems indicating that base rate neglect is a function of information representation and not an inherent processing bias.     

Frequent Card Playing and Pathological Gambling: The Utility of the Georgia Gambling Task and Iowa Gambling Task for Predicting Pathology

The current investigation examined performance on two laboratory-based gambling tasks, the Georgia Gambling Task (GGT; Goodie, 2003. The effects of control on betting: Paradoxical betting on items of high confidence with low value. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 29, 598–610) and the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Anderson, 1994. Insensitivity to future consequences following damage to human prefrontal cortex. Cognition, 50, 7–15), as well as self-reported markers of gambling pathology using the Diagnostic Interview for Gambling Severity (DIGS; Winters, Specker, & Stinchfield, 2002. The downside: Problem and pathological gambling (pp. 143–148). Reno, NV: University of Nevada, Reno) among a sample of undergraduate students who are frequent card players. Two hundred twenty-one participants (55 female and 166 male; mean age 19.21 years) who self-classified as playing cards at least once per month completed these measures. Performance on GGT and IGT systematically related to gambling-related pathology in several ways. Overconfidence and bet acceptance on the GGT, and myopic focus on reward on the IGT, predicted gambling related pathology. GGT and IGT performance correlated with each other, but both contributed independently to predicting gambling pathology. Card playing frequency predicted gambling pathology but not GGT or IGT performance. Discussion focuses on the role of biases of judgment and risky decision making in pathological gambling.     

Using the Medicare buy-in program to estimate the effect of Medicaid on SSI participation

This article assesses the importance of receiving supplemental health insurance on participation in Supplemental Security Income (SSI) for the elderly. The implementation of the Qualified Medicare Beneficiary (QMB) program offered a substitute for Medicaid, and expanded health insurance eligibility to a higher income level. Using a sample of elderly respondents aged 66 to 75, I find that the QMB program reduced SSI participation. More than half of the QMB participants were previously covered by SSI and Medicaid. The calculations suggest that the QMB program was not as expensive as it might first appear because of reductions in SSI expenditure.