The 10% Flat Tax: Tithing and the Definition of Income

Developing a fair and widely accepted income definition presents one of the greatest challenges to tax reform. To arrive at a definition separate from the federal tax code, we surveyed 1200 Latter‐day Saints about their practice of tithing. Tithing is similar to a flat tax with no deductions, where individuals voluntarily contribute 10% of self‐defined income to the church. The results of our survey indicate that most respondents operate on a cash realization basis, which excludes savings and does not allow any deductions. Respondents' income concepts generally do not coincide with current tax laws or economists' views of comprehensive income.     

What Drives Citizen Participation in Political Gatherings in Modern South Africa? A Quantitative Analysis of Self-Reported Behaviour

Social Indicators Research - Community and public gatherings are an important component of political participation in sub-Saharan Africa. Formal and informal community meetings and rallies are...     

Foot-and-Mouth Disease Entrance Assessment Model Through Air Passenger Violations

This article aims to construct a risk model for the prediction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) entrance caused by passengers who illegally carry meat products of cloven-hoofed animals through international airports into a country. The risk that meat contaminated with the FMD virus is formulated as the probabilities of FMD factor events (the prevalence of FMD), the commodity factor event (the transportation, storage, and distribution (TSD) factor event), and the passenger event. Data used for analysis were records of illegal meat product carriers from areas A and B intercepted at an international airport in Taiwan. A risk model was proposed to simulate the probability distributions in disease prevalence, probability of FMD virus existing in the meat products after meat processing, and estimation of survival of virus and time period for TSD. The probability of the passenger event was hypothesized with the odds of intercepted passengers and estimated via logistic regression. The results showed that the odds of passengers being intercepted by beagles were higher than those intercepted by Customs. By conducting Monte Carlo simulations, the probability of FMD virus risk caused by FMD factors from area A was 149 times lower than that from area B. The probability of FMD virus risk caused by the passenger event from area A was four times lower than the corresponding probability from area B. The model provides a contribution to FMD prevention and can be a reference for developing models of other diseases.     

ESTIMATING A PARAMETER WHEN IT IS KNOWN THAT THE PARAMETER EXCEEDS A GIVEN VALUE

In some statistical problems a degree of explicit, prior information is available about the value taken by the parameter of interest, θ say, although the information is much less than would be needed to place a prior density on the parameter's distribution. Often the prior information takes the form of a simple bound, ‘θ > θ₁ ’ or ‘θ < θ₁ ’, where θ₁ is determined by physical considerations or mathematical theory, such as positivity of a variance. A conventional approach to accommodating the requirement that θ > θ₁ is to replace an estimator, , of θ by the maximum of and θ₁. However, this technique is generally inadequate. For one thing, it does not respect the strictness of the inequality θ > θ₁ , which can be critical in interpreting results. For another, it produces an estimator that does not respond in a natural way to perturbations of the data. In this paper we suggest an alternative approach, in which bootstrap aggregation, or bagging, is used to overcome these difficulties. Bagging gives estimators that, when subjected to the constraint θ > θ₁ , strictly exceed θ₁ except in extreme settings in which the empirical evidence strongly contradicts the constraint. Bagging also reduces estimator variability in the important case for which is close to θ₁, and more generally produces estimators that respect the constraint in a smooth, realistic fashion.     

The potential of a couples approach to employment assistance: results of a nonexperimental evaluation

We present findings from a nonexperimental evaluation of an employment program in which both partners in young, low-income, primarily African-American couples simultaneously participated. Mothers participating in the couples program had larger immediate gains in employment and earnings and decreases in TANF receipt following their exit from the program relative to mothers who received employment assistance as individuals. Fathers showed similar although weaker results. These immediate benefits appeared to be driven by higher rates of program completion among couples’ participants. Couples in which both partners completed the program experienced the largest quarterly earnings gains, and couples with greater earnings’ gains were more likely to still be together one year after the program ended. Mothers’ earnings gains eroded in the two years following program completion and many reported new pregnancies and problems with child care. We suggest directions for future programs and encourage future studies to consider the range of mechanisms associated with a couples focus, including potential motivational benefits and unintended consequences.

An evaluation of the rural development commission's redundant building grant

The Rural Development Grant operates the Redundant Building Grant which is designed to bring redundant buildings in certain areas into commercial activity. This paper outlines the results of a recent evaluation of the Grant largely based on contacts with more than 400 applicants in nine counties. This survey is used to explore five aspects of rural policy: property development; business performance; job creation; integrated rural development; and aspects of land use planning.