Bill Clinton, Newt Gingrich, and the 1998 House Elections

The outcome of the 1998 congressional elections was an exceptionto the rule that the president's party loses seats in midtermHouse elections. This article reviews and draws together theoreticallythe distinctive characteristics of the political context in1998 and assesses the effects of the public's evaluations ofBill Clinton (as president and as a person) and Speaker of theHouse Newt Gingrich. The findings suggest that voters' viewsof Bill Clinton as president exerted a sizable effect on theelections. A substantial influence of public opinion towardNewt Gingrich is also revealed. The estimated effects of voters'opinions of Bill Clinton as a person were much smaller. Twoestimates of the combined effects indicate that if public opiniontoward Clinton and Gingrich had been evenly balanced, the Democraticparty would have lost seats in the 1998 House elections as thepresident's party traditionally has. In addition to providinginsight into the 1998 elections, the findings answer broaderquestions about congressional elections. They also bear on importantquestions regarding the extent to which the determinants ofpolitical judgments are subject to influence ("priming") bythe political environment.