THE DETERMINANTS AND STRUCTURE OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION

In Latin America, import substitution is a synonym for industrialization. Influences having an effect on this process range from the capacity to import (a supply influence) to the output-induced demand for import substitutes in production. Relative prices, changed through the exchange rate, may also switch demand from imports to import substitutes. A time-series “test” using measures of these three variables showed that the sectoral capacity to import was the most important determinant of the pattern and variation in Argentine import substitution (1951–65). Left unanswered was the relative influence that world-market conditions, home consumption of exportables, or factor movements to industry may have had on import capacity. With a mean R² of only .42, it is clear that influences other than the three used have played a role in determining Argentine import substitution. Using measures of backward (demanding) and forward (supplying) linkages, we sought to identify “key” import-substitute sectors in the industrialization process. According to Hirschman, if these sectors expand rapidly and bottlenecks are created, greater than “normal” profit opportunities may occur. The result would be that more private savings may be mobilized and investment decisions made more obvious. Although no such key sectors could be identified, this result is partly dependent on the degree of input-output aggregation, which, for Argentine data, is substantial.     

The Portrayal of Blacks in Magazine Advertisements: 1950-1982

This article compares the frequency and social characteristicsof blacks and whites in advertisements in Time and Ladies' HomeJournal during 1950 and 1980. The occupational level of blacksportrayed has risen considerably, and blacks are no longer presentedas maids or servants. However, white authority figures are stillfrequently shown aiding poor blacks or supervising black children.Furthermore, ads show friendly and informal social relationshipsbetween individual whites much more frequently than they showsuch relationships between whites and blacks. Finally, in anextended analysis the frequency of black ads in 1980, 1981,and 1982 is examined for Time, Newsweek and LHJ. Blacks arestill somewhat underrepresented, and recent fluctuations inthe use of black advertisements are considered. The articlebegins and ends with a discussion of three different modelsthat might account for the way blacks are presented in advertisementsin the United States.     

A Reconviction Predictor for Probationers

Correspondence to Ken Pease, Professor of Criminology, University of Manchester, Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Manchester M13 9PL. Summary This paper reports the development of a predictor of reconvictionsuitable for use with probationers. The predictor, based onthe Burgess method of prediction, was developed using a sampleof 750 probation cases and a prediction period of three years.Its predictive power is substantial, being of the same orderas that of the parole predictor (see Nuttall et al., 1977; Ward,1988). Despite the increasing emphasis on offence-focused work in theprobation service, the work of the service is not routinelyor comprehensively measured in terms of its alteration of criminalcareers. By detailing the development of the predictor, andwelcoming experimentation with it amongst individual area probationservices, it is hoped that this paper will encourage a morefocused consideration of the effect of probation supervisionon offending behaviour, and therein facilitate the incorporationof broader service quality issues within performance evaluation.