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1.
Dennis Wagenaar Tiaravanni Hermawan Marc J. C. van den Homberg Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts Heidi Kreibich Hans de Moel Laurens M. Bouwer 《Risk analysis》2021,41(1):37-55
Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer. 相似文献
2.
Oliveira Flávio G. Tapisso Joaquim T. von Merten Sophie Rychlik Leszek Fonseca Paulo J. Mathias Maria da Luz 《Urban Ecosystems》2021,24(5):851-862
Urban Ecosystems - The development of urban areas imposes challenges that wildlife must adapt to in order to persist in these new habitats. One of the greatest changes brought by urbanization has... 相似文献
3.
Social Indicators Research - Debates about the appropriate role of markets and governments are often shaped by sharply contrasting opinions. Based on individual data from the World Values Survey... 相似文献
4.
Christian P. Robert Xiao-Li Meng Jesper Møller Jeffrey S Rosenthal C Jennison M. A Hurn F Al-Awadhi Peter McCullagh Christophe Andrieu Arnaud Doucet Petros Dellaportas Ioulia Papageorgiou Ricardo S Ehlers Elena A Erosheva Stephen E Fienberg Jonathan J Forster Roger C Gill Nial Friel Peter Green David Hastie R King Hans R Künsch N. A. Lazar C Osinski 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(1):39-55
5.
6.
Franses Philip Hans 《Econometric Reviews》1995,14(1):55-63
In this paper it is shown that several models for a bivariate nonstationary quarterly time series are nested in a vector autoregression with cointegration restrictions for the eight annual series of quarterly observations. Or, the Granger Representation Theorem is extended to incorporate, e.g., seasonal and periodic cointegration. 相似文献
7.
Laura Bernardi Andreas Klärner Holger von der Lippe 《Revue europeenne de demographie》2008,24(3):287-313
This article contributes to the ongoing debate on the economic determinants of fertility behavior by addressing the role of
job insecurity in couples’ intentions concerning parenthood and its timing. It starts from the hypothesis that cultural values
moderate individuals’ reactions to job insecurity and the way it is related to family formation. With a systematic thematic
content analysis of a set of semi-structured interviews with childless men and women around the age of 30 in eastern and western
Germany, we are able to show that there are substantial differences in the consequences of job insecurity on intentions to
have a first child. In western Germany, a relatively secure job career is expected to precede family formation, and this sequence
of transitions is rather rigid, whereas in eastern Germany job security and family formation are thought of and practiced
as parallel investments. We suggest that the lack of convergence in family formation patterns between eastern and western
Germany after the unification of the country in 1990 is partially related to different attitudes toward job insecurity in
the two contexts. 相似文献
8.
Statistical Papers - 相似文献
9.
In this paper, we propose to detect seasonal unit roots within the context of a structural time series model. Such a model is often found to be useful in practice. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that our method works well. We illustrate our approach for several quarterly macroeconomic time series variables. 相似文献
10.