Romantic Relationships and Criminal Desistance: Pathways and Processes

In dominant theories of criminal desistance, marital relationship formation is understood to be a key “turning point” away from deviant behavior. Empirical studies supporting this claim have largely focused on the positive role of marriage in men's desistance from crime, and relatively few studies have examined the role that nonmarital relationships may play in desistance. Drawing on 138 longitudinal in‐depth interviews with 22 men and women reentering society from prison, this article extends the scope of desistance research by additionally considering the significance of more fleeting and fluid relationships, and the diverse processes through which romantic relationships of all sorts are linked with criminal behaviors. We present an empirically based typology detailing six processes, grouped within three conceptual categories, through which romantic relationships had their effects. These pathways include material circumstances, social bonds and interactions, and emotional supports and stressors. We also consider gender differences in these processes. While more tenuous bonds to marginally conventional partners would seem to exert little effect, as one of the few relationships and social roles available to many former prisoners, we found that they wielded important influence, if not always in a positive direction.     

It's a rave new world: estimating the prevalence and perceived harm of ecstasy and other drug use among club rave attendees

The use of 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA or "ecstasy") appears to be increasing worldwide, with "rave" attendees being one high-risk population. To date, however, only one study has collected ecstasy use information from rave attendees in the United States. To address this limitation, we collected self-report drug use information from 70 adult "club rave" attendees within the Baltimore-Washington corridor in April and May 2002. Data collection was scheduled between 12 A.M. and 5 A.M. Participation rates were high, with 85 percent of the club rave attendees completing the interview. Eighty-six percent of the respondents reported lifetime ecstasy use, 51 percent reported 30-day use, and 30 percent reported using ecstasy within the two days preceding the interview. While past-year ecstasy users were comparable to non-users with respect to a host of demographic and drug use variables, non-ecstasy users were significantly more likely than past-year users to perceive risks associated with the regular use of alcohol and ecstasy. Not surprisingly, non-ecstasy users were significantly more likely than past-year users to perceive harmful long-term physical and psychological effects associated with ecstasy ingestion. These findings suggest that rave attendees may be an important population for ecstasy-related prevention efforts.     

The fiducial argument and hacking's principle of irrelevance

In a searching analysis of the fiducial argument Hacking (1965) proposed the Principle of Irrelevance as a condition under which the argument is valid. His statement of the Principle was essentially non-mathematical and this paper presents a mathematical development of the Principle. The relationship with likelihood inference is explored and some of the proposed counter-examples to fiducial theory are considered. It is shown that even with the Principle of Irrelevance examples of non-uniqueness of fiducial distributions exist.     

Characterising the Perceived Risks and Benefits of Some Health Issues

Previous work on perceived risk, particularly a study by Fischhoff et al. (1978), is critically examined with reference to its applicability to specific health related issues. Judgments were obtained from 159 subjects of 15 health-related items in terms of perceived risk, benefit, and a number of risk characteristics based on the Fischhoff et al. research. In addition, demographic details concerning sex of respondent, seat belt usage, smoking status, and birth order were collected. Using regression analyses it was found that the direction of the risk-benefit relationship was dependent on the issue being judged. Risk was found to be better explained by ratings of likelihood of mishap and likelihood of death as a consequence of mishap. Benefit was poorly explained by the risk characteristics and demographic data. However, subject group characteristics were shown to be important influences on risk and benefit perception in certain situations. The implications of these results for understanding behavioral decisions involving risk in relation to specific activities are discussed.     

Socio-political forecasting and management information systems

This paper is an attempt to place the forecasting of socio-political variables in the context of actual information needs of industrial companies. Initially discussion is of the effect of socio-political variables upon companies with a review of this significance for decision makers and decision takers. An attempt is then made to categorise existing forecasting techniques in the context of socio-political data whilst regard is paid to the possible effects of socio-political variables on companies. Discussion is then broadened to a consideration of current practice both in the UK and in the USA. Problems implicit in current practice are commented upon and the paper ends with the conclusion that socio-political forecasting is currently significant to many companies and that there is a major potential role for management scientists to play in the development and implementation of appropriate techniques.     

Fossil fuel supplies simulation 1972–1979

Fossil fuels are an important source of energy for Ontario Hydro and purchases exceed $100 million per year. This paper describes a computer simulation of the inventory situation over an eight-year period, which is being used to assess the relationship between order flexibility and the target carry-over stocks at the beginning of each shipping season. A simple way of presenting the results for management evaluation is illustrated. Variations of the model are used to assess random influences, such as strikes, and to determine the economic balance between holding costs and stock-outs.     

Iraqi refugees and the humanitarian costs of the Iraq war: What role for social work?

Harding S, Libal K. Iraqi refugees and the humanitarian costs of the Iraq war: what role for social work? The US‐led invasion and war in Iraq has created one of the most significant refugee crises in recent decades. International nongovernmental organizations have partnered with local organizations in Jordan and Syria to provide humanitarian aid to some two million displaced Iraqis. Field research indicates that, as with other humanitarian crises, few trained social workers have contributed to policy and practice with displaced Iraqis. The case of Iraq provides an opportunity to consider how the social work profession can shape comprehensive global refugee policies and programs. This role is appropriate, given mandates for the profession to promote social justice and human rights. Using the case of Iraqi displacement, we illustrate the complexities of humanitarian services provision and the need for trained social workers to participate in humanitarian relief and development programs. We argue that a variety of social work institutions and actors should become more robust advocates for shaping just refugee policy and practice.