Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Goodness of fit for the inverse Gaussian distribution

For testing the fit of the inverse Gaussian distribution with unknown parameters, the empirical distribution-function statistic A² is studied. Two procedures are followed in constructing the test statistic; they yield the same asymptotic distribution. In the first procedure the parameters in the distribution function are directly estimated, and in the second the distribution function is estimated by its Rao-Blackwell distribution estimator. A table is given for the asymptotic critical points of A². These are shown to depend only on the ratio of the unknown parameters. An analysis is provided of the effect of estimating the ratio to enter the table for A². This analysis enables the proposal of the complete operating procedure, which is sustained by a Monte Carlo study.     

Art in Social Movements: Shantytown Women's Protest in Pinochet's Chile

How social movements use art is an understudied question in the social movements literature. Ethnographic research on the use of art by the prodemocracy movement in Pinochet's Chile suggests that art plays a very important role in social movements, which use it for framing, to attract resources, to communicate information about themselves, to foster useful emotions, and as a symbol (for communicating a coherent identity, marking membership, and cementing commitment to the movement).     

Erickson’s identity theory and the importance of ethnic exploration for transnational adoptees

In an effort to promote their child’s ethnic identity development, parents of transnational adoptees regularly engage in cultural exploration activities with their children. This practice is aligned with Erik Erikson’s identity theory and constructs of exploration and commitment. Using qualitative analysis of interviews with adult adoptees, this study identifies four themes common to participants including: (1) travel to one’s birth country is a transformative experience; (2) relationships with other adoptees are important; (3) adoptees feel differently about the importance of cultural activities during childhood; and (4) adoptees feel both unique in their personal ethnic identity and have feelings of marginality.     

Organisationskultur im Spielfilm

By analyzing cinema films, specific organizational cultures can be illustrated. The culture of prison as a “total institution” is explained on the basis of the movie “The Shawshank Redemption” (1994). With regard to the developing friendship between the former banker Andy Dufresne who is innocently convicted and the homicide delinquent Ellis Boyd Redding typical characteristics of a total institution are pointed out. Furthermore, the psychological function those characteristics serve for employees, inmates and even for the society as a whole is analyzed. Central to this interpretation is thinking of the prison as a father substitute. Many interactions become comprehensible viewed in this context. Additionally, the prison represents a huge object of projection which facilitates the collective release of aggression.     

Socioeconomic and Demographic Predictors of Potable Water and Sanitation Access in Ghana

Lack of access to potable water and good sanitation is still one of the most challenging public health concerns of the twenty-first century despite steady progress over recent decades. Almost a billion people globally lack access to safe water; over two billion live without adequate sanitation facilities. The challenge is even more daunting for Sub-Saharan Africa where coverage levels for both potable water and sanitation remain critically low. The urgent need to address the issue calls for adequate understanding of the socio-economic dimensions. Using the 2008 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, we investigated the socio-economic and demographic factors associated with access to potable water and improved sanitation facilities. Our generalized linear models reveal that income, education, household size, and region are significant predictors of improved water and sanitation access. Our discussion and conclusion sections highlight the implications of the study results for water policy formulation and implementation in Ghana, and broadly for other developing countries.     

Assessing Participation and Effectiveness of the Peer-Led Approach in Youth Sexual Health Education: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis in More Developed Countries

Sexual health education for young people is crucial not only for development of norms but also for protection against vulnerabilities during this stage in life. Although several systematic reviews have examined the effectiveness of peer-led sex education, none have focused on the extent of peer participation. The purpose of this review was to evaluate peer-led sexual health education interventions in more developed countries (MDCs). Electronic and manual searches across five social science, education, and medical databases were conducted. Fifteen articles were selected in total. Most (10 of 15) studies gave low or no responsibility to peers. The majority of articles found improvements in sexual health knowledge (13 of 14) and attitudes (11 of 15) at postintervention stages. Two studies showed improved self-efficacy, and three showed behavioral changes. A preliminary synthesis of effectiveness and level of participation was done. Meta-analysis revealed a large effect on knowledge change (Hedges’ g = 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43 to 1.25) and a medium effect on attitude change (Hedges’ g = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.19 to 0.80). Peer-led interventions could be a powerful tool. This review shows that this approach is effective in changing knowledge and attitudes but not behaviors. Further research and action are needed to understand optimal implementation.     

Building Community Leaders in Underserved Communities: An Exploration of the Role of Seed-Funding for Community Projects by Program Graduates

Investing in community leadership development (CLD) remains a strategy with promise in creating vibrant communities. Although many low-income CLD programs teach effective leadership skills, these often lay fallow due to lacking opportunities for graduates to apply the skills. This study explores how providing competitive minigrants fuels the creation of value-adding community projects. In-depth interviews were conducted with 55 graduates of a low-income CLD program, 19 facilitators, and 12 community members knowledgeable about the program. The study observed that by providing seed money for graduate projects, CLD programs can help translate skills into practice thereby increasing community engagement and socio-economic wellbeing.