Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Organisationskultur im Spielfilm

By analyzing cinema films, specific organizational cultures can be illustrated. The culture of prison as a “total institution” is explained on the basis of the movie “The Shawshank Redemption” (1994). With regard to the developing friendship between the former banker Andy Dufresne who is innocently convicted and the homicide delinquent Ellis Boyd Redding typical characteristics of a total institution are pointed out. Furthermore, the psychological function those characteristics serve for employees, inmates and even for the society as a whole is analyzed. Central to this interpretation is thinking of the prison as a father substitute. Many interactions become comprehensible viewed in this context. Additionally, the prison represents a huge object of projection which facilitates the collective release of aggression.     

Analysis of strategic plans to assess planning for sustainability of comprehensive community initiatives

In order to achieve the intended impact on a community, comprehensive community initiatives must sustain programs once they have been implemented. However, planning for sustainability is challenging and is rarely incorporated in the planning process of an initiative. The current study examined 19 5-year plans developed during the planning phase of the Comprehensive Strategy for Serious, Violent and Chronic Juvenile Offenders. Quantitative and qualitative methods were employed to assess the extent to which the construct of sustainability was incorporated. The plan analysis was supplemented with results from other components of the complex evaluation design implemented as part of the process evaluation of Comprehensive Strategy. Results suggested that sustainability was not accounted for during the planning phase of this initiative. The implications of these findings, including the importance of planning for sustainability in order to achieve sustainability, are discussed.     

Understanding the bear movement in gay male culture: redefining masculinity

The bear movement emerged in the gay male culture of the 1980s, but little research on this group has been conducted. The purpose of this qualitative study was to examine the meanings and functions of bear identity. Six bear-identified men participated in intensive interviews investigating this question. Results suggest that men who identify as bears consciously adopt a masculine aesthetic that signifies values of self-acceptance and maturity. The participants described the acceptance of diverse body shapes and ages within the bear community as leading to positive self-esteem and body image. Results are discussed in relation to clinical and advocacy work. They broaden the awareness of the diversity of cultures that exist within the gay community.     

Walking a tightrope: reflections on police gatekeeping roles in suicide research in Ghana

Engaging non-conventional gatekeepers such as the police presents both promises and perils. Although studies have relied on police data for researching suicide and other sensitive topics in Africa, there is a paucity of literature that explores or reflects on police gatekeeping and its research implications. This paper presents authors’ reflections on police gatekeeping in a qualitative suicide study in Accra, Ghana. The main observation is that the process was double-edged. On the one hand, it led to field delays and costs, (mis)apprehensions and positionality problems, and trust building challenges. On the other hand, it vouched for research(er) credibility, provided therapeutic openings, and facilitated the viability of research with the suicide bereaved. Sensitivity to research context, sensitising the police, and reinforcing ‘therapeutic-research discourse’ with participants, are recommended means for aligning participants’ goals to research goals and for achieving therapeutic disclosures.     

Protesting the police: anti-police brutality claims as a predictor of police repression of protest

Police face a unique dilemma when policing protests that explicitly target them, such as the anti-police brutality protests that have swept the United States recently. Because extant research finds that police response to protests is largely a function of the threat – and especially the threat to police – posed by a protest, police may repress these protests more than other protests, as they may constitute a challenge to their legitimacy as a profession. Other research suggests police agencies are strongly motivated by reputational concerns, suggesting they may treat these protests with special caution to avoid further public scrutiny. Using data on over 7,000 protests events in New York over a 35-year period from 1960 to 1995, I test these competing hypotheses and find that police respond to protests making anti-police brutality claims much more aggressively than other protests, after controlling for indicators of threat and weakness used in previous studies. Police are about twice as likely to show up to anti-police brutality protests compared with otherwise similar protests making other claims and, once there, they intervene (either make arrests, use force or violence against protesters, or both) at nearly half of these protests, compared to about one in three protests making other claims.     

‘It’s better if someone can see me for who I am’: stories of (in)visibility for students with a visual impairment within South African Universities

Issues of visibility, invisibility and the non-disabled gaze are very relevant to the lives of many disabled persons. With this article we tentatively show that, despite the physical ‘over’-visibility of disabled bodies, many intricate parts of their personhood remain obscured and invisible. Interviews with 23 students with a visual impairment revealed that they sometimes experienced stares and averted gazes from their sighted counterparts. In response, they often hid their entire impairment, or parts thereof, in an effort to conform and gain acceptance and to earn membership to a non-disabled peer group. Acceptance was often found in companionship with fellow disabled peers. Since these stories told of continuing exclusion for disabled students on tertiary grounds, further participatory research is recommended.     

Factors enhancing adaptive coping and mental health in lesbian youth: a review of the literature

Mental health practitioners who find themselves working with lesbian youth have a limited knowledge base by which to guide them in the helping process. This article explores, examines, and synthesizes current literature in an attempt to uncover factors that serve to enhance adaptive coping strategies for lesbian youth.