Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

Bootstrap Testing of Hypotheses on Co‐Integration Relations in Vector Autoregressive Models

It is well known that the finite‐sample properties of tests of hypotheses on the co‐integrating vectors in vector autoregressive models can be quite poor, and that current solutions based on Bartlett‐type corrections or bootstrap based on unrestricted parameter estimators are unsatisfactory, in particular in those cases where also asymptotic χ² tests fail most severely. In this paper, we solve this inference problem by showing the novel result that a bootstrap test where the null hypothesis is imposed on the bootstrap sample is asymptotically valid. That is, not only does it have asymptotically correct size, but, in contrast to what is claimed in existing literature, it is consistent under the alternative. Compared to the theory for bootstrap tests on the co‐integration rank (Cavaliere, Rahbek, and Taylor, 2012), establishing the validity of the bootstrap in the framework of hypotheses on the co‐integrating vectors requires new theoretical developments, including the introduction of multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with random (reduced rank) drift parameters. Finally, as documented by Monte Carlo simulations, the bootstrap test outperforms existing methods.     

The Politics of Women's Economic Independence

We identify the political conditions that shape the economicposition of married/cohabiting women and of the economicallymost vulnerable group of women—single mothers. Specifically,we examine the determinants of reductions in single mothers'poverty rate due to taxes and transfers, and women's wages relativeto spouses'/ partners' wages. The Luxembourg Income Study archiveyields an unbalanced panel with 71 observations on 15 countries.The principal determinants of poverty reduction due to taxesand transfers are left government, constitutional veto points,and welfare generosity. The relative wage of women in couplesis a function mainly of female labor force participation, parttime work among women, and women's mobilization. In explainingthe causal pathways to these outcomes, we highlight the interrelationshipsof welfare state, care, and labor market policies.     

12‐Month‐Olds Produce Others' Intended but Unfulfilled Acts

Following Meltzoff's (1995) behavioral reenactment paradigm, this study investigated the ability of 12‐month‐olds (N = 44) to reproduce a model's attempted‐but‐failed actions on objects. Testing was conducted using a novel set of objects designed to enable young infants to readily identify the potential outcome of the model's actions. Infants who saw an adult's attempted‐but‐failed actions now produced her intended outcomes at an equivalent rate to infants who saw the model's completed acts, and significantly more so than infants who either observed an adult manipulating the test apparatus using nontarget actions or who did not see any actions demonstrated on the test apparatus. This result shows that, contrary to previous studies, 12‐month‐olds can produce the intended but unconsummated acts of others.     

Psychodynamic Couple Therapy: A Practical Synthesis

This essay reviews the most significant contributions of psychodynamic thought to the field of couple therapy. It distills the work of numerous clinicians and researchers who, though writing from diverse perspectives, share fundamental assumptions and concerns. Rather than emphasizing differences between schools of thought, this paper mines their best contributions in a discussion of five central therapeutic targets: underlying issues, divergent subjective experiences, transferences, projective identification, and acceptance. Two detailed cases illustrate the benefits and techniques for targeting these five therapeutic domains. Video Abstract is found in the online version of the article .     

The impact of a workplace terrorist attack on employees' perceptions of leadership: A longitudinal study from pre- to postdisaster

A terrorist attack targeting a workplace represents an organizational crisis that requires the leaders to manage emerging threats. The changing roles and expectations of the leaders are reflected in the employees' perceptions of them over time. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the 2011 Oslo bombing attack affected the targeted employees' perceptions of the leadership behaviors of their immediate superiors or the organizational managers' interest in the health and well-being of their workers. Ministerial employees (n ≈ 180) completed questionnaires on fair, empowering, and supportive leadership, in addition to human resource primacy, on two occasions several years prior to the terrorist attack. Assessments were then repeated one, two, and three years after the attack. Changes in the course of perceived leadership from predisaster to postdisaster were examined using bootstrapped t-tests and latent growth curve models. Furthermore, the general course of perceived leadership was compared with a nonexposed control sample of matched employees. Results showed that employees with high levels of posttraumatic stress perceived their immediate leader to be less supportive. However, overall perceptions of leadership were remarkably stable, which suggests that the effects of critical incidents on perceptions of leadership may be negligible.     

Workplace resources to improve both employee well-being and performance: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Organisations are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of employees in gaining and maintaining competitive advantage. The happy worker–productive worker thesis suggests that workers who experience high levels of well-being also perform well and vice versa; however, organisations need to know how to ensure such happy and productive workers. The present review and meta-analysis identifies workplace resources at the individual, the group, the leader, and the organisational levels that are related to both employee well-being and organisational performance. We examine which types of resources are most important in predicting both employee well-being and performance. We identified 84 quantitative studies published in print and online from 2003 to November 2015. Resources at either of the four levels were related to both employee well-being and performance. We found no significant differences in employee well-being and organisational performance between the four levels of workplace resources, suggesting that interventions may focus on any of these levels. Cross-sectional studies showed stronger relationships with well-being and performance than longitudinal studies. Studies using objective performance ratings provided weaker relationships between resources and performance than self-rated and leader/third-party-rated studies.     

Work hours,social value of leisure and globalisation

We examine how openness interacts with the coordination of consumption–leisure decisions in determining the equilibrium working hours and wage rate when there are leisure externalities (e.g., due to social interactions). The latter are modelled by allowing a worker's marginal utility of leisure to be increasing in the leisure time taken by other workers. Coordination takes the form of internalising the leisure externality and other relevant constraints (e.g., labour demand). The extent of openness is measured by the degree of capital mobility. We find that: coordination lowers equilibrium work hours and raises the wage rate; there is a U-shaped (inverse-U-shaped) relationship between work hours (wages) and the degree of coordination; coordination is welfare improving; and, the gap between the coordinated and uncoordinated work hours (and the corresponding wage rates) is affected by the extent and nature of openness.