Two-Step Residual-Based Estimation of Error Variances for Generalized Least Squares in Split-Plot Experiments

In split-plot experiments, estimation of unknown parameters by generalized least squares (GLS), as opposed to ordinary least squares (OLS), is required, owing to the existence of whole- and subplot errors. However, estimating the error variances is often necessary for GLS. Restricted maximum likelihood (REML) is an established method for estimating the error variances, and its benefits have been highlighted in many previous studies. This article proposes a new two-step residual-based approach for estimating error variances. Results of numerical simulations indicate that the proposed method performs sufficiently well to be considered as a suitable alternative to REML.     

On Small Sample Properties of the Wald,LR and LM Tests in a Linear Model with AR(1) Errors

When the error terms are autocorrelated, the conventional t-tests for individual regression coefficients mislead us to over-rejection of the null hypothesis. We examine, by Monte Carlo experiments, the small sample properties of the unrestricted estimator of ρ and of the estimator of ρ restricted by the null hypothesis. We compare the small sample properties of the Wald, likelihood ratio and Lagrange multiplier test statistics for individual regression coefficients. It is shown that when the null hypothesis is true, the unrestricted estimator of ρ is biased. It is also shown that the Lagrange multiplier test using the maximum likelihood estimator of ρ performs better than the Wald and likelihood ratio tests.     

Obesity over the life course

Obesity in middle-aged humans is a risk factor for many age-related diseases and decreases life expectancy by about 7 years, which is roughly comparable to the combined effect of all cardiovascular disease and cancer on life span. The prevalence of obesity increases up until late middle age and decreases thereafter. Mechanisms that lead to increased obesity with age are not yet well understood, but current evidence implicates impairments in hypothalamic function, especially impairments in the ability of hypothalamic pro-opiomelanocortin neurons to sense nutritional signals. The rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity at all ages in the past decade suggests that, in the next two or three decades, diseases associated with obesity, especially diabetes, will begin to rise rapidly. Indeed, these trends suggest that for the first time in modern history, the life expectancy of people in developed societies will begin to decrease, unless the rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity can be reversed.     

宇野理论与广松涉的价值概念

价值本身的阐明,在马克思那里是以与价值实体论相混合的形式而展开的,后来的多数马克思学派也继承了这一缺陷。与此相对,作为有别于眼下价值实体论而阐明价值本身的性质的尝试,是日本的两位研究者即宇野弘藏和广松涉的研究。宇野认为:论证劳动价值说(及剩余价值论)即,《资本论》应该不是开头,而是第三篇绝对剩余价值的生产之后才展开价值实体论,第一篇、第二篇则是与作为流通形式论(商品、货币、资本这种价值本身的存在方式的分析)。而广松认为:价值不是单以物理的存在为出发点,而是主体间性地形成的既不是主观的判断也不是客观的实在的东西。     

Lifetime Assessment by Intermittent Inspection under the Mixture Weibull Power Law Model with Application to XLPE Cables

This paper proposes a new treatment for electrical insulation degradation. Some types of insulation which have been used under various circumstances are considered to degrade at various rates in accordance with their stress circumstances. The cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) insulated cables inspected by major Japanese electric companies clearly indicate such phenomena. By assuming that the inspected specimen is sampled from one of the clustered groups, a mixed degradation model can be constructed. Since the degradation of the insulation under common circumstances is considered to follow a Weibull distribution, a mixture model and a Weibull power law can be combined. This is called The mixture Weibull power law model. By using the maximum likelihood estimation for the newly proposed model to Japanese 22 and 33kV insulation class cables, they are clustered into a certain number of groups by using the AIC and the generalized likelihood ratio test method. The reliability of the cables at specified years are assessed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Games of Capacity Manipulation in Hospital-intern Markets

In this paper, we analyze capacity manipulation games in hospital-intern markets inspired by the real-life entry-level labor markets for young physicians who seek residencies at hospitals. In a hospital-intern market, the matching is determined by a centralized clearinghouse using the preferences revealed by interns and hospitals and the number of vacant positions revealed by hospitals. We consider a model in which preferences of hospitals and interns are common knowledge. Hospitals play a capacity-reporting game. We analyze the equilibria of the game-form under the two most widely used matching rules: hospital-optimal and intern-optimal stable rules. We show that (i) there may not be a pure strategy equilibrium in general; and (ii) when a pure strategy equilibrium exists, every hospital weakly prefers this equilibrium outcome to the outcome of any larger capacity profile. Finally, we present conditions on preferences to guarantee the existence of pure strategy equilibria.     

Between the Global Environmental Regime and Local Sustainability: A Local Review on the Inclusion, Failure and Reinventing Process of the Environmental Governance

Abstract: Japan has undergone drastic changes in ecological policy and practice over the past 40 years. Although this short history began with significant levels of pollution, notoriously termed “kogai”, the country seems to have achieved great ecological improvements, both technologically and institutionally, and now is one of the most highly ecologically modernized countries. But can this process really be posited as a simple, linear one of ecological modernization, a sort of natural, historical progress toward ideal environmental governance? This paper proposes some questions that cast doubt over this view. It focuses on local struggles for environmental governance, particularly in the city of Kamakura, which proclaimed itself an “environmental municipality” in 1993, a designation that seemingly fell by the wayside in 2001. Investigating this 8‐year case we can extract some lessons concerning the contradictions between global and local, and consequently about the inherent difficulties of top‐down environmental ordinances and insufficiently decentralized environmental governance. At the same time, through this case readers may also discover a new type of civic activity: cities with agriculture. After a short sketch of agri‐environmental movements, I will suggest that such movements are converging with more conventional ones and prevailing throughout the country. Therefore, the ecological modernization process can be seen to include a sort of restoration process: an updated return to perma‐cultural sustainability. Consequently, this essay contributes to international environmental discussion, not only by uncovering the cleavages between global and local, but also by suggesting the possibility of environmental governance alternative to technologically and institutionally driven ones.     

The general expressions for the moments of lawless and wang's ordinary ridge regression estimator

In this paper, we derive the exact general expressions for the moments of an ordinary ridge regression (ORR) estimator for individual regression coefficients in a different way from Firinguetti (1987). Using the derived expressions, we evaluate numerically the first four moments of the ORR estimator, and examine its bias, mean square error, skewness and kurtosis. Further, Monte Carlo experiments are carried out in order to examine the shape of the density function of the ORR estimator.     

Equilibrium in abstract political economies: with an application to a public good economy with voting

Consider an abstract political economy which has a collective choice rule together with strategic interactions among players. We prove that there exists an equilibrium in such an economy by synthesizing an equilibrium existence theorem in generalized games by Shafer and Sonnenschein (1975) and a voting core existence theorem in simple games by Schofield (1984, 1989). The theorem can be applied to a public good economy where public good provisions are determined by a class of voting rule.Thanks are due to David Austen-Smith, Jeffrey Banks, Marcus Berliant, Steve Ching, Ryo-Ichi Nagahisa, Mary Beth Savio, Norman Schofield, and Tomoichi Shinotsuka. Detailed comments from an anonymous referee of the journal are gratefully acknowledged. Errors are, of course, my own.