Creating a Crisis:German Mass Media andOil Supply in 1973-74

In the winter of 1973-74, the German Federal Republic importedmore oil than in any other year before or since. Nevertheless,the mass media were warning that an energy crisis might occur.Thereupon the population became nervous andbought more crudeoil products than ever before. As a consequence, short-termdifficulties of supply from industrial producers seemed to confirmthe warnings.     

THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF A NEW VOTING GAP MARITAL DIFFERENCES IN AMERICAN VOTING

There is now a marriage gap in presidential voting in the UnitedStates, with married people voting about 10%–15% moreRepublican than unmarried people. This voting difference developedin the 1972 election, and it is also evident in party identification.The proportion of unmarried people has doubled since 1964, sothis cleavage is important. The gap can be explained statisticallyin terms of race and income, but still may give politiciansthe opportunity to gain votes by appealing to voters on thebasis of family issues.     

Choosing Priors for Constrained Analysis of Variance: Methods Based on Training Data

Abstract. This article combines the best of both objective and subjective Bayesian inference in specifying priors for inequality and equality constrained analysis of variance models. Objectivity can be found in the use of training data to specify a prior distribution, subjectivity can be found in restrictions on the prior to formulate models. The aim of this article is to find the best model in a set of models specified using inequality and equality constraints on the model parameters. For the evaluation of the models an encompassing prior approach is used. The advantage of this approach is that only a prior for the unconstrained encompassing model needs to be specified. The priors for all constrained models can be derived from this encompassing prior. Different choices for this encompassing prior will be considered and evaluated.     

A THREE-PHASE APPROACH TO INSTILLING A CONTINUOUS LEARNING CULTURE IN MANUFACTURING EDUCATION AND TRAINING

We describe a “learn-by-doing” approach that involves the following three phases designed in part to integrate management and engineering curricula and instill a continuous learning philosophy: (1) involve cross-functional teams as “process and business owners” in a replica of a real-life manufacturing/design problem (Do), (2) require teams to not only learn by doing but to then apply or implement what they have learned in phase 1 (Apply), and (3) share best practices and knowledge gained with subsequent participants (Document). These last two phases are essential and potentially the most valuable but are often ignored in the learning process. They can be accomplished either manually or through the use of an electronic bookshelf (e.g., company or school intranet), which is a database system used to collect and store templates of best practices, collective wisdom, and related information associated with learning and operational activities. We describe two of several educational packages we have developed and discuss their impact on our teaching, our students, and practitioners.     

The Cultural Meaning of Disaster: Remarks on Gregory Button's Work

After the two major nuclear disasters I have witnessed in my life, Chernobyl and Fukushima, I experienced uncertainty that seemed stronger than fear, anger or panic. In George Button's excellent work I found my personal experience of uncertainty explained as a cultural phenomenon that indeed prevails after all natural and manmade disasters. He has been studying disasters for over 30 years as an academic and a reporter. He covered and reported on, for example, the Three Mile Island nuclear disaster, the Exxon Valdes oil spill, and Hurricane Katrina. His book tells a powerful story about US disasters and their cultural aspects. However, I think that Button's research methodology and his findings can be applied to the Japanese situation as well. On the one hand, his book can serve as a warning on how not to act in the face of calamity if we want our culture to survive the suffering, and, on the other, it can serve as inspiration for domestic research on the most recent Japanese calamity. Button is interested in the way a disaster becomes a cultural, social and political phenomenon where uncertainty prevails and his focus on uncertainty as a main category seems to be a pioneering attempt that his book extends from previous studies. He focuses on uncertainty as an experience of affected people as well as the politics of uncertainty inflected in a time of calamity and finds that the two aspects are correlative.     

Making something of the sacrifice: gender,migration and Mexican children's educational aspirations

Transnational families often use international migration as a strategy not only for survival, but also for social mobility. Migrant parents hope their sacrifices via migration will translate into educational benefits for non‐migrant children. In this article, we use mixed methods to explore the success of parents' efforts by considering the relationship between gender, family migration patterns and the educational aspirations of children in the Mixteca region of Mexico. Analysis of surveys collected from 1273 students show that mothers' migrations affect children's educational goals in different ways depending on whether they migrate alone or with their husbands. Fathers' lone migrations have no significant impact on children's educational aspirations. Interviews with 51 children of migrants suggest that children of unmarried migrant mothers are motivated academically because they invest in their mothers' migrations as a sacrifice, whereas the emotional consequences of parental absences lower the educational aspirations of children with both parents in the USA.     

Adolescents in Crisis: on Hypothesizing with Minimal Information

Summary This paper suggests some of the questions that practitionersshould ask themselves when faced with an adolescent in crisis.It is important that professionals have available a number oflevels for conceptualizing behaviour if they are to make senseof complex information. Minimal information from a referralis given to demonstrate our approach. We consider some issuesconnected with change in systems; symptomatic behaviour in alife cycle context; agency contexts as they affect professionalhelp; and adolescent development in the context of marital breakdown.The practitioner is encouraged to develop hypotheses, whilehaving very few facts which in the light of further contactmay be developed, or discarded in favour of hypotheses morerelevant to the particular family. We warn against the equal,but different dangers of approaching each new family eitherwith a totally open mind, or with fixed ideas concerning whatit ‘must be about’. We do not argue that it is betterto have little or no previous history (although too much historycan become part of ‘the problem’), but that workersalways have more information, from the very start, than theymay realise.