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1.
Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war. 相似文献
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Jens Jetzkowitz C.S.A. van Koppen Rolf Lidskog Konrad Ott Lieske Voget-Kleschin Catherine Mei Ling Wong 《Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research》2018,31(1):S38-S60
The term “biodiversity” is often used to describe phenomena of nature, which can be studied without a reference to the socially constructed, evaluative, or indeed normative contexts. In our paper, we challenge this conception by focusing particularly on methodological aspects of biodiversity research. We thereby engage with the idea of interdisciplinary biodiversity research as a scientific approach directed at the recognition and management of contemporary society in its ecological embedding. By doing this, we explore how research on and assessments of biodiversity can be enhanced if meaning, aspiration, desires, and related aspects of agency are methodically taken into account. In six sections, we substantiate our claim that the discourse on biodiversity (including the IPBES (Intergovernmental science-policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) debate) is incomplete without contributions from the social sciences and humanities. In the introduction, a brief overview of biodiversity’s conceptual history is provided showing that “biodiversity” is a lexical invention intended to create a strong political momentum. However, that does not impede its usability as a research concept. Section 2 examines the origins of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) by way of sociological discourse analysis. Subsequently, it proposes a matrix as a means to structure the ambiguities and tensions inherent in the CBD. The matrix reemphasizes our main thesis regarding the need to bring social and ethical expertise to the biodiversity discourse. In Section 3, we offer a brief sketch of the different methods of the natural and social sciences as well as ethics. This lays the groundwork for our Section 4, which explains and illustrates what social sciences and ethics can contribute to biodiversity research. Section 5 turns from research to politics and argues that biodiversity governance necessitates deliberative discourses in which participation of lay people plays an important role. Section 6 provides our conclusions. 相似文献
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Sandström Glenn Namatovu Fredinah Ineland Jens Larsson Daniel Ng Nawi Stattin Mikael 《Population research and policy review》2021,40(2):163-185
Population Research and Policy Review - This study investigates how the probability to live alone has developed among working age individuals with and without disabilities in Sweden during the... 相似文献
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The intersection of class origin and immigration background in structuring social capital: the role of transnational ties 下载免费PDF全文
The study investigates inequalities in access to social capital based on social class origin and immigration background and examines the role of transnational ties in explaining these differences. Social capital is measured with a position generator methodology that separates between national and transnational contacts in a sample of young adults in Sweden with three parental backgrounds: at least one parent born in Iran or Yugoslavia, or two Sweden‐born parents. The results show that having socioeconomically advantaged parents is associated with higher levels of social capital. Children of immigrants are found to have a greater access to social capital compared to individuals with native background, and the study shows that this is related to transnational contacts, parents’ education and social class in their country of origin. Children of immigrants tend to have more contacts abroad, while there is little difference in the amount of contacts living in Sweden across the three groups. It is concluded that knowledge about immigration group resources help us predict its member's social capital, but that the analysis also needs to consider how social class trajectories and migration jointly structure national and transnational contacts. 相似文献
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Jens Beckert 《Theory and Society》2012,41(1):119-125
This is a detailed reply to Kurtuluş Gemici’s article, in this issue of Theory and Society, “Uncertainty, the problem of order, and markets: a critique of Beckert, Theory and Society, May 2009.” 相似文献
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Informal Food Production in the Enlarged European Union 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
How widespread is the production of food in old and new member states of the European Union and what is the social meaning or logic of such activities? We show that growing food is (a) more widespread in former communist countries than in traditional market economies and (b) is predominantly a hobby or recreational activity in affluent countries, but a coping strategy in reaction to experienced difficulties in making ends meet in poorer nations, and especially so in the former communist countries. 相似文献
8.
Volkhard Krech Jens Schlamelcher Markus Hero 《KZfSS K?lner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie》2013,65(1):51-71
The article examines different forms of institutionalization of religion in Germany since the 1950s. Going beyond the classical church-sect dichotomy, we discuss in a theoretical part communities, organizations, market relations, movements and events as possible candidates for the structuring of religious communication. In an empirical part, we outline recent changes of social forms in Germany. By addressing divergent trajectories in the major German churches, smaller Christian denominations, immigrant religions and the evolving spectrum of new religiosity, we show that a general trend is not observable. The developments do not prove the often claimed ‘end of religious communities’. It rather seems that modernity produces a variety of religious social forms that seem to balance the tension between communalization (Vergemeinschaftung) and socialization (Vergesellschaftung). 相似文献
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Jens Bonke Mette Deding Mette Lausten Leslie S. Stratton 《Social science quarterly》2008,89(4):1023-1043
Objective. Focusing on housework activities, we hypothesize that the degree of specialization is influenced by economic notions of efficiency, as well as by time constraints and egalitarian values. Methods. Employing time‐use data on U.S. and Danish couples, we construct a composite index measure of intra‐household specialization. We analyze the comparability of reported time use and our specialization index using different types of data, and then model specialization using a multivariate two‐limit Tobit. Results. We find evidence that Danish households specialize less than U.S. households and that children, particularly preschool‐aged children, are associated with significantly increased specialization in the United States but not in Denmark. Conclusions. We postulate that the more egalitarian social structure in Scandinavia is a driving force behind the lower rate of specialization observed in Denmark. Further, we believe the subsidized child‐care services provided by the Danish welfare system reduce the impact children have on specialization in ordinary housework tasks. 相似文献