Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

Measuring and Achieving Equity in Multiperiod Emergency Material Allocation

Emergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single‐period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this article introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an exponential utility function to reflect the disutility loss due to material shortfalls), and illustrates the relationship between equity of allocations and the cost of emergency response. Finally, numerical examples are presented to demonstrate both the feasibility and the usefulness of the proposed model for achieving multiperiod equitable allocation of emergency material among multiple disaster locations. The results indicate that the introduction of a nonlinear utility function to reflect the disutility of large shortfalls can make the material allocation fairer, and minimize large losses due to shortfalls. We found that achieving equity has a significant but not unreasonable impact on emergency costs. We also illustrate that using differing utility functions for different types of materials adds an important dimension of flexibility.     

Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis

This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and application of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include: (a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of robust or reference prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human performance in PRA, including not only human error per se but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presenting interesting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.     

Illinois's child welfare research agenda: an approach to building consensus for practice-based research

This article presents a consensus-building initiative to develop a statewide research agenda that responds to the needs of Illinois's child welfare community. Researchers conducted this process through a university-community partnership to engage those interested in child welfare services. The process and findings resulted in a living document that will guide child welfare research throughout the state. Findings of the inquiry suggest that the development of best practice models may be one of the most important contributions research can make to practice.     

A natural conjugate prior for the nonhomogeneous poisson process with an exponential intensity function

This article presents a natural conjugate prior for the nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with an exponential intensity function, for modeling the failure rate of repairable systems. The behavior of the conjugate prior distribution with respect to its parameters is studied, and the use of this prior in Bayesian estimation is compared to two other estimation approaches (the use of independent prior distributions, and the bivariate normal distribution). The use of the conjugate prior proposed here facilitates Bayesian statistical analysis of aging. In particular, the proposed prior allows us to explicitly account for dependence between the initial failure rate and the aging rate. This is a significant improvement over the assumptions made in most prior work (either the assumption that the aging rate is known, or the assumption that the initial failure rate and the aging rate are independent). Monte Carlo simulation shows that Bayesian estimation using the proposed prior generally performs at least as well as Bayesian estimation using independent priors for the initial failure rate and the aging rate,except in the case where the prior distribution underestimates both the initial failure rate and the aging rate.     

Socioeconomic evaluation of a correctional programme in Sweden—long-term effects Samhällsekonomisk utvärdering av ett kriminalvårdsprogram i Sverige—långsiktiga effekter

The present article focuses on the long-term socioeconomic outcome of a correctional programme in Sweden, called KrAmi (n=62), using a systematic comparison with a control group of probation clients (n=51). The evaluation, which had a quasi-experimental design, was based on actual costs for each client (n=113) for a period of five years, from 1995 to 1999. The follow-up period was two years, during which the socioeconomic costs decreased step-wise for both groups, probation groups more so than programme groups. The deteriorations were 70–80% compared to the period before treatment. Rehabilitation to labour market, measured in pension points, was more successful for programme groups than for control groups. Thanks to this, as well as lower costs during the treatment period, the programme groups’ socioeconomic profitability, measured with a 15-year cost–benefit analysis (CBA), was greater than that of the control groups. The cost–effectiveness analysis (CEA) shows that the KrAmi groups are better off in work rehabilitation, depreciation time (one year compared with two and a half years for probation groups) and repayment ratio (14 SEK compared to 6 SEK for probation groups) although cost savings are greater for probation groups.     

The emotional toll of postfeminist fatherhood

Postfeminism shapes the political economy of the workforce and household, constituting a re-entrenchment of traditional heterosexual gender regimes and the pressure to transgress them. Focusing on the understudied area of postfeminist masculinity, we analyze the emotional toll some fathers experience as a result of the fraught expectations to be the breadwinner, nurturing parent, and enlightened feminist spouse who completes equal domestic duties. Using empirical data of parents’ participation in a family-based health intervention, we argue that the paradoxical expectation to enact traditional gender relations and to adopt gender egalitarianism is exhausting, upsetting, and confusing for fathers. By focusing on the affective dimensions of postfeminism, we demonstrate how working to achieve the impossible expectation of doing “it all,” a bind that women have been caught in for centuries, takes an emotional toll on fathers and couples, leading to discontent at work and home, and in regard to their self-concept, parental role, and spousal relationship. We close by offering counter examples of fathers and couples who have disengaged from postfeminist parenting relations and have reached a state of contentment. Contrary to the alignment of postfeminism with positive affect, the experience of resisting postfeminist resulted in feelings of joy, pride, and satisfaction.     

Incapsulating hands: on the (in)dependence of young adults in the UNHCR’s Maratane Refugee Camp

Drawing on research with a small group of young women and men in Maratane Refugee Camp, Mozambique, this paper argues that youth envisage themselves as incapsulated in the camp’s physical and ideological boundaries. It shows that the United Nations’ (UN) mandate of finding durable solutions to international problems is difficult to achieve when young people envisage themselves as reliant or dependent on the UN. It argues that greater attention needs to be given to the mentoring of young people within the UN system, so that they are equipped with viable and realistic life expectations and skills.     

Social Work Educators' Views and Experiences of Grow Your Own Qualifying Programmes in England

Little is known about the impact on social work educators and social work programmes of employer sponsorship of social work students through secondment or traineeship schemes, often referred to as Grow Your Own (GYO) schemes. This article reports on social work educators' views of sponsorship, the effects on their activities and the dynamics of mixed student cohorts. The study took place in England during 2007–2009 and comprised a review of the literature, interviews with a range of social work educators (n = 23), GYO students (n = 35), and employers (n = 27), and the production of a good practice guide based on stakeholder contributions. Social work educators reported that GYO activity may enhance and enrich social work programmes. They valued secured and guaranteed practice placements, considered that employer-sponsored students enriched the total student cohort, facilitated an expansion of student numbers, and strengthened partnerships with local employers. A further advantage was that GYO benefited the teaching programme overall with more robust employer/university relationships. Social work educators reported that such schemes required careful management and investment of time and might lead to some tensions about the balance between education and training. These findings are placed in the context of developments in social work education in England.