论盛唐声诗和绝句为唐曲词发生的前夜

盛唐延续了初唐的去音乐化运动，古风中的乐府和歌行盛行，造成了音乐消费的空缺，以七言绝句为代表的声诗大量涌现以满足对声乐歌词的需求，这种现象一直延续到中唐时代，直到词体形式的代兴，才渐次出现了词体取代声诗的现象，因此，盛唐绝句声诗的兴盛可以看作词体发生的前夜。     

自然、艺术以及美的含义辨析

本文对日常生活和学术研究中自然、艺术以及美这三个词语的含义进行了深入细致的辨析,旨在 澄清其含义,有助于正确、恰当地使用。     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

论建安五言诗女性题材的兴起——兼论《怨诗》的作者

建安五言诗女性题材的兴起,由建安时代的必然因素和偶然因素促成,必然因素由建安的时代文化氛围所决定,偶然因素由发生在建安中后期的三组事件引发。五言诗最早的女性视角写作是曹丕与徐干。曹、徐之作,呈现了由男子视角向女性视角转型的过程。传为班婕妤的《怨诗》,也应是这个时期的产物。     

发挥统计科研的超前导向作用 争取统计科研有一个新的突破

发挥统计科研的超前导向作用争取统计科研有一个新的突破翟立功一、进一步发挥统计科研的超前导向作用（一）必须进一步确立统计科研在统计发展战略中的重要地位科学技术是第一生产力，这是小平同志的精辟论断。科学技术已成为新时期经济与社会发展的先导力量。统计事业的...     

基于企业生态理论的公司融资因子与区域经济发展研究

依据企业生态学理论,运用主成分分析法就区域公司融资因子对区域经济发展的影响进行实证分析可以看出,一定区域的公司融资因子对该区域的经济发展具有重要的作用。因此,应采取建立良好的区域信用环境、加强和改善金融机构的金融服务、提高区域内公司的融资因子等措施,以优化区域公司的融资因素。     

Multidimensional Analysis of Deprivation and Fragility Patterns of Migrants in Lombardy,Using Partially Ordered Sets and Self-Organizing Maps

Social Indicators Research - In this paper, we present a multidimensional fuzzy analysis of the levels and the patterns of poverty and social fragility of migrants’ families, in the Italian...     

Lessons from Nigeria for improved thinking and working politically in the extractives sector

Despite the wealth that comes from being the biggest oil producer in Africa, Nigeria has some of the worst development indicators in the world. From 2011 to mid‐2016, the DFID‐funded Facility for Oil Sector Transparency and Reform (FOSTER) programme's unique design aimed to reduce incentives for the capture of oil revenue by elites and international oil companies, restoring the potential of those revenues to accelerate economic and social development. This article asks what lessons FOSTER's successes and failures offer for improved “thinking and working politically” (TWP). It examines the outcomes from five “clusters” of interventions: three viewed by the FOSTER team as successes and two as failures. The article identifies factors for successful TWP‐based programming, including the need for local ownership rooted in staff with a combination of technical expertise, a deep knowledge of the local political context and excellent networking abilities. The research used a qualitative and inductive approach. Field research was undertaken with 44 semi‐structured qualitative interviews during one month of fieldwork in Abuja and Lagos. The research also included reviews of FOSTER's internal documentation and evaluation frameworks, as well as analysis of newspaper articles and grey literature on the oil sector in Nigeria. The project offers important lessons for politically informed programming about how interventions were implemented (process), what was actually done (content) and how the project responded to changes in context that created or blocked opportunities for reform (responsiveness). The article identifies factors for successful TWP‐based programming, including the need for local ownership rooted in staff with a combination of technical expertise, a deep knowledge of the local political context and excellent networking abilities. The findings have important implications for programme design. They demonstrate the value of built‐in flexibility that allows staff to choose and switch the partners they work with and the channels they work through. They also show that a key aspect of TWP‐based programming is implicit acceptance that some failure may be unavoidable, since this permits staff to balance risk against opportunities. Finally, a better understanding of FOSTER's failures reveals the challenges of a TWP‐based approach and the trade‐offs it demands.