Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

Heteroscedastic Global Tests that the Regression Parameters for Two or More Independent Groups are Identical

Simulation results are reported on methods that allow both within group and between group heteroscedasticity when testing the hypothesis that independent groups have identical regression parameters. The methods are based on a combination of extant techniques, but their finite-sample properties have not been studied. Included are results on the impact of removing all leverage points or just bad leverage points. The method used to identify leverage points can be important and can improve control over the Type I error probability. Results are illustrated using data from the Well Elderly II study.     

Sibling Conflict and Ineffective Parenting as Predictors of Adolescent Boys' Antisocial Behavior and Peer Difficulties: Additive and Interactional Effects

Extensive sibling conflict is predictive of multiple poor adjustment outcomes during adolescence and early adulthood, but the frequency and developmental impact of such conflict may be conditional on ineffective parenting. Thus, sibling conflict may add to or amplify the negative effects of ineffective parenting on adolescent boys' adjustment. Hypotheses in this study were that: (a) multiple informant measures of problematic parent–child relationships and of sibling conflict would form distinct constructs rather than a single negative family process construct, and (b) ineffective parenting, sibling conflict, and their interaction measured at ages 10 to 12 would predict boys' concurrent status and developmental trajectories for antisocial behavior and peer adjustment across a 4‐year span from ages 12 to 16. Confirmatory factor and latent growth modeling analyses were consistent with these hypotheses, demonstrating the important developmental impact of sibling conflict.     

How Welfare Policies Affect Adolescents' School Outcomes: A Synthesis of Evidence From Experimental Studies

Using data from 8 random assignment studies and employing meta‐analytic techniques, this article provides systematic evidence that welfare and work policies targeted at low‐income parents have small adverse effects on some school outcomes among adolescents ages 12 to 18 years at follow‐up. These adverse effects were observed mostly for school performance outcomes and occurred in programs that required mothers to work or participate in employment‐related activities and those that encouraged mothers to work voluntarily. The most pronounced negative effects on school outcomes occurred for the group of adolescents who had a younger sibling, possibly because of the increased home and sibling care responsibilities they assumed as their mothers increased their employment.     

The Market Provision of Management Services, Information Asymmetries and Service Quality—Some Market Solutions: an Empirical Example

This article examines the problems of information asymmetry associated with the market provision of managerial services. Such problems are heightened by those characteristics which differentiate services from goods. Two unique, and central, characteristics of services, are intangibility and perishability. These create special problems for the market provision of services. In particular they make for difficulties in assessing quality; whereas the producer may know product quality, the buyer often does not. The asymmetry between sellers and buyers is of two types: Adverse selection and moral hazard. Adverse selection occurs when the buyer cannot observe the relevant characteristics of the seller or the conditions under which they work. The problem of moral hazard is the buyer's inability to observe the action taken by the sellers. If these difficulties are not overcome, the market could collapse as companies withdraw and internalize service provision. However, each market has a number of in-built mechanisms which remedy the harmful effects associated with information-related problems. The institutional arrangements which predominate in particular markets are dependent upon the trust-producing mechanisms within those markets. Consequently, market responses to information asymmetries are far from uniform. The argument is illustrated using the example of the executive recruitment industry. In this respect the paper is a highly focused study of those mechanisms which overcome information asymmetries in one service market.     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.     

Pulling together: building a community debriefing team.

1. Research shows that many emergency workers are affected physically and emotionally by critical incident stress. 2. Debriefings conducted by trained team members are an effective method to mitigate the impact of critical incident stress. A debriefing is a structured, time-limited group intervention. 3. Cooperation among community agencies is essential for the development and effective functioning of a critical incident stress debriefing team. 4. Several teams in Illinois have organized to form a Critical Incident Stress Debriefing Network. The Illinois network is part of an international organization composed of critical incident stress debriefing providers.     

A circular-cone test for testing homogeneity against a simple tree order

Several methods exist for the problem of testing the equality of several treatments against the one-sided alternative that the treatments are better than the control. These methods include Dunnett's test, Bartholomew's likelihood-ratio test, the Abelson-Tukey-Schaafsma-Smid optimal-contrast test, and the multiple-contrast test of Mukerjee, Robertson, and Wright. A new test is proposed based on an approximation of the likelihood-ratio test of Bartholomew. This test involves using a circular cone in place of the alternative-hypothesis cone. The circular-cone test has excellent power characteristics similar to those of Bartholomew's test. Moreover, it has the advantages of being simpler to compute and may be used with unequal sample sizes.