Bayesian analysis of non-negative ar(2) processes

A non-negative AR(2) process with exponentially distributed white noise is investigated in the paper. It is assumed that the autoregressive parameters are random variables with a vague prior density. They can be esto,ated by their posterior expectations. Explicit formulas for these estimators are derived and their strong consistency is proved. An approximation to the estimators is proposed which is easier for calculation. The results are illustrated in a simulation study     

On nonlinear models for time series

The paper is a review of nonlinear processes used in time series analysis and presents some new original results about stationary distribution of a nonlinear autoregres-sive process of the first order. The following models are considered: nonlinear autoregessive processes, threshold AR processes, threshold MA processes, bilinear models, auto-regressive models with random parameters including double stochastic models, exponential AR models, generalized threshold models and smooth transition autoregressive models, Some tests for linearity of processes are also presented.     

What Happened to the Society of Leisure? Of the Gap Between the “Haves” and “Have Nots” (Canadian Time Use and Well-Being Trends)

Canadian time use trends of the past 30 years are examined, using General Social Survey data collected by Statistics Canada in 1981, 1986, 1992, 1998, 2005, and 2010. The article analyses changes in the allocation of time to paid work, domestic work, personal needs, and free time, as well as accompanying changes in perceived time pressure and subjective well-being. The article addresses four questions: (1) Do objectively measured time use trends support optimistic forecasts of the 1960s that transition to post-industrial societies is accompanied by substantial gains of free time? (2) Did the time use changes of the past 30 years affect different population and lifecycle groups evenly or asymmetrically? (3) Is there an accord or discord between the objective measures of time use and subjective feelings of time pressure? (4) What are the emotional, and socio-political implications of the observed time use trends?     

The integration of space and time in the motion picture

Currently, visual sociology is defined as a sub‐field of qualitative sociology. This paper argues that such a view is too narrow and that the field is actually composed of three distinct, yet logically related, areas of investigation. The first is Seeing, or the study of role of sight and vision in the construction of social organization and meaning. The second is Iconic Communication, or the study of how spontaneous and deliberate construction of images and imagery communicate information and can be used to manage relationships in society. The third area I have termed Doing Sociology Visually and is concerned with how techniques of producing and decoding images can be used to empirically investigate social organization, cultural meaning and psychological processes. It includes those techniques, methodologies and concerns that have received the most attention to date and where the camera and other technologies of representation have played a crucial role in the analytic process.     

Risk Analysis, Philosophy, and the Social and Behavioral Sciences: Reflections on the Scope of Risk Analysis Research

This paper reviews the contributions of philosophy and the social and behavioral sciences to risk analysis. It concludes that philosophical, social, and behavioral research can contribute to the resolution of complex risk issues in at least four areas: (i) comparative risk analysis; (ii) the use of risk-related scientific information in the decision-making process; (iii) risk perception; and (iv) institutional and organizational features of the risk-management system.