Modelling daily multivariate pollutant data at multiple sites

Summary. This paper considers the spatiotemporal modelling of four pollutants measured daily at eight monitoring sites in London over a 4-year period. Such multiple-pollutant data sets measured over time at multiple sites within a region of interest are typical. Here, the modelling was carried out to provide the exposure for a study investigating the health effects of air pollution. Alternative objectives include the design problem of the positioning of a new monitoring site, or for regulatory purposes to determine whether environmental standards are being met. In general, analyses are hampered by missing data due, for example, to a particular pollutant not being measured at a site, a monitor being inactive by design (e.g. a 6-day monitoring schedule) or because of an unreliable or faulty monitor. Data of this type are modelled here within a dynamic linear modelling framework, in which the dependences across time, space and pollutants are exploited. Throughout the approach is Bayesian, with implementation via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.     

Population Policy in Early Victorian England

This paper argues that the generally-held belief that there was no population policy in Great Britain during its fertility transition is incorrect. There were, in fact, clear and implicit and explicit policies in place by the early 19th Century which aimed at reducing population growth. These were negative, involving elimination of family allowances (the famous Poor Laws), and also positive, through subsidised emigration and ``transportation' of felons to the colonies. Moreover, a changed ``ideation' on the part of the nation's political, intellectual and spiritual leaders, changed norms about marriage and child-bearing, raising sharply the perceived economic and psychic cost of children. Lacking acceptable means to control pregnancies, many working class women resorted to abortion, infanticide and child abandonment to reduce their family size. The policy's actual impact on overall fertility is uncertain but it did constitute a deliberate attempt by society to affect demographic behaviour and outcomes.     

The shape of mortality curves: an analysis of counties in England and Wales, 1911

Previous analysis has shown that life tables may be distinguished by two orthogonal pieces of information, the level of mortality in the population and the relative shape of the mortality curve. We show that both the regions of England and Wales in 1911, and locality types (county boroughs, other urban, and rural) differ in the shape of their mortality curves. Using data for the administrative counties, we examine the underlying correlates of this differentiation, paying particular attention to the socio-economic structure of the counties as reflected in their wealth, opportunity levels, and degree of urbanisation.     

The Fatherbook: A Document for Therapeutic Work with Father-Absent Early Adolescent Boys

There is convincing evidence that children who grow up without fathers are vulnerable for psychosocial dysfunction. A document called the Fatherbook is presented for therapeutic work with the father-absent early adolescent boy. Modeled on the life story book used with children in foster care, the Fatherbook records information, thoughts, and feelings about absent fathers. It provides a tangible object with which the youngster can begin to work through the experience of being fatherless. The boy's mother must have the opportunity to voice her feelings about the Fatherbook because the Fatherbook brings the father back into her life as well as her son's.