GM Foods and the Misperception of Risk Perception

Public opposition to genetically modified (GM) food and crops is widely interpreted as the result of the public's misperception of the risks. With scientific assessment pointing to no unique risks from GM crops and foods, a strategy of accurate risk communication from trusted sources has been advocated. This is based on the assumption that the benefits of GM crops and foods are self-evident. Informed by the interpretation of some qualitative interviews with lay people, we use data from the Eurobarometer survey on biotechnology to explore the hypothesis that it is not so much the perception of risks as the absence of benefits that is the basis of the widespread rejection of GM foods and crops by the European public. Some respondents perceive both risks and benefits, and may be trading off these attributes along the lines of a rational choice model. However, for others, one attribute-benefit-appears to dominate their judgments: the lexicographic heuristic. For these respondents, their perception of risk is of limited importance in the formation of attitudes toward GM food and crops. The implication is that the absence of perceived benefits from GM foods and crops calls into question the relevance of risk communication strategies for bringing about change in public opinion.     

Missing item imputation for quality-of-life instruments with application to asthma quality-of-life questionnaires

There has been increasing use of quality-of-life (QoL) instruments in drug development. Missing item values often occur in QoL data. A common approach to solve this problem is to impute the missing values before scoring. Several imputation procedures, such as imputing with the most correlated item and imputing with a row/column model or an item response model, have been proposed. We examine these procedures using data from two clinical trials, in which the original asthma quality-of-life questionnaire (AQLQ) and the miniAQLQ were used. We propose two modifications to existing procedures: truncating the imputed values to eliminate outliers and using the proportional odds model as the item response model for imputation. We also propose a novel imputation method based on a semi-parametric beta regression so that the imputed value is always in the correct range and illustrate how this approach can easily be implemented in commonly used statistical software. To compare these approaches, we deleted 5% of item values in the data according to three different missingness mechanisms, imputed them using these approaches and compared the imputed values with the true values. Our comparison showed that the row/column-model-based imputation with truncation generally performed better, whereas our new approach had better performance under a number scenarios.     

Emotional Climate in a European Problem Area: East Berlin and West Berlin Three Years After Reunification

In autumn of 1992, three years after the unification of Germany, during a period of violent attacks against foreigners, 120 students from East Berlin and West Berlin and 20 foreign students living in West Berlin answered the Emotional Climate Questionnaire developed by de Rivera and Fernandez-Dols. Foreign respondents expressed a positive attitude toward their government/state and believed in prosocial behavior to a greater extent than respondents from East Berlin and West Berlin. Whereas East Berlin students disagreed only somewhat with statements in favor of selfishness and egoism, West Berlin students strongly disagreed with them. We attribute the differences that were found in the answers of the foreign students to their national values. In addition, we regard the differences between the emotional climates of East Berlin and West Berlin as reflecting a climate of instability among East Berliners. We interpreted selfishness as a kind of polarized behavior indicating a climate of instability. A factor analysis revealed 5 factors of an emotional climate: Nation's Future, Just World, Reactive Egoism, Scepticism, and Basic Egoism. The concept of emotional climate is discussed on the basis of the current data.     

T-CIA: investigating T cells in aging

Over the past few decades it has become clear that the immune system and especially T cells are instrumental in achieving a long and healthy life. The European Union (EU) previously supported several pan-European research projects coordinated from Tuebingen, Germany, aimed at providing a better understanding of immunosenescence. For 3 years, until the end of 2005, the EU is supporting a project called T cells in aging (T-CIA). The aim of T-CIA is to spy out and combine current efforts in immunology, molecular biology, and gerontology for a better understanding of why the elderly often have dysregulated immune responses and are more susceptible to infections and cancer.     

A MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ENERGY SUBSIDIES IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

We construct a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyze the effects of large energy subsidies. The model includes domestic energy production and consumption, trade in energy at world market prices, as well as private and public sector production. The model is calibrated to Egypt and used to study reforms such as reductions in energy subsidies with corresponding reductions in various tax instruments or increases in infrastructure investment. We calculate the new steady states, transition paths to the new steady state, and the size of the associated welfare losses or gains. Our main results for a 15% cut in energy subsidies are: (1) Steady state gross domestic product drops in most of our experiments as less energy is used in production. (2) Steady state consumption rises in most of our experiments. (3) Welfare can rise by as much as 0.6% in consumption equivalent terms. (4) The largest gains in terms of output and of welfare can be obtained when savings from energy subsidy cuts are used to fund additional infrastructure investment. (JEL E21, E63, H55, J26, J45)     

T Cell Immunity and Aging

The effect of age on the immune system is generally detrimental and results in "immunosenescence," a poorly-defined state inadequately reflected in clinical data and for which few reliable "biomarkers of aging" are available. The multinational consortium "T-Cell Immunity in Ageing," T-CIA, was set up to examine these issues specifically as applied to T lymphocytes. This Perspective discusses some of the outcomes of a recent conference that considered progress toward resolving these questions in humans.     

Use of visitors’ perception in urban reserves in the Buenos Aires metropolis

Urban nature reserves (UR’s) fulfill unique functions for society and are irreplaceable, satisfying human needs particularly in urban and periurban areas. The aim of this paper was to use a perception based approach to analyze whether the urban nature reserves in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, Argentina were principally used by visitors according to their main conservation mission. Five hundred written surveys designed to evaluate users’ profile and their perceptions of the selected reserves were conducted during the summer of 2009 to visitors selected at random. Collected data was analyzed by multivariate analyses. The results discriminated two groups (1 and 2) of reserves showing that people chose to visit a nature reserve for two contrasting motivations: the contemplation of nature (group 1) or active recreation (group 2). Both groups of reserves, the respondents participated in environmental programs. All respondents knew about plants whereas knowledge of the fauna was related to the visitors’ level of education. In all reserves respondents considered that nature enhance the quality of human life in the first place, and valued biodiversity en second place. Visitors in group 1 considered nature as very important, while respondents in group 2 thought that is important as a place for having fun. Our findings can potentially assist administrators to understand better how visitors perceive the reserves.     

Relative Commodity Prices and Cointegration

The Prebisch–Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the relative price of primary commodities is reassessed, on the basis of recently available time series data, for 1900–1986. Special attention is given to adequate dynamic modeling of price fluctuations. Primary and manufactured-goods prices are found to be cointegrated. The hypothesis of stationarity for the long-run relative-price movements cannot be rejected. The empirical evidence does not support the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis.     

Intergroup Contact, Forgiveness, and Experience of "The Troubles" in Northern Ireland

Two studies used random sample surveys to test the "contact hypothesis" on intergroup attitudes of Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland. In Study 1, archival data from two different surveys in 1989 ( N = 310 Catholics, 422 Protestants) and 1991 ( N = 319 Catholics, 478 Protestants) showed that contact was positively related to attitudes toward denominational mixing. Study 2 ( N = 391 Catholics, 647 Protestants) explored predictors of intergroup forgiveness, and also showed that intergroup contact was positively related to outgroup attitudes, perspective-taking, and trust (even among those who had a worse experience of sectarian conflict). These studies indicate that research in peace psychology can provide a deeper understanding of the conflict in Northern Ireland and, in due course, contribute to its resolution.     

THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT AND COLLEGE ENROLLMENT DECISIONS

We investigate the effect of the expansion of the federal dependent coverage mandate for young adults under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on college enrollment decisions of young Americans. The expansion removes the requirement that young individuals need to be enrolled as full‐time students in order to remain on their parents' health insurance past the age of 18 and expands the coverage mandate to age 26 irrespective of student status. This changes the incentives for the full‐time college enrollment decisions of young individuals. We use panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for the years 2003–2013 and estimate that the dependent coverage expansion under the ACA decreases the probability to enroll as full‐time student by 3 percentage points using a difference‐in‐differences framework. Furthermore, we find that part‐time college enrollment is unaffected by the new policy. The results are robust to changes in the model specification and become stronger when we increase the sample overlap between treatment and control groups using trimming based on propensity scores. (JEL C35, I23, I10, I18)