THE HARDER THE TASK,THE HIGHER THE SCORE: FINDINGS OF A DIFFICULTY BIAS

Studies have found that going first or last in a sequential order contest leads to a biased outcome, commonly called order bias (or primacy and recency). Studies have also found that judges have a tendency to reward contestants they recognize with additional points, called reference bias. Controlling for known biases, we test for a new type of bias we refer to as “difficulty bias,” which reveals that athletes attempting more difficult routines receive higher execution scores, even when difficulty and execution are judged separately. Despite some identification challenges, we add to the literature by finding strong evidence of a difficulty bias in gymnastics. We also provide generalizations beyond athletics. (JEL L10, L83, D81, J70, Z1)     

DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENTS AND THE 1984 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: A CASE STUDY

This article examines the advantages a single Democratic incumbentutilized to win reelection in 1984 despite an overwhelming victoryby Ronald Reagan at the top of the ticket in the congressionaldistrict. The incumbent won reelection because of two typesof ticket splitting: Republican-inclined voters who voted forRepublican candidates for president and U.S. Senate and splitto vote for the Democratic incumbent for Congress, and Democraticvoters who supported Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate andCongress but split to vote for Ronald Reagan for president.Ticket splitting was found to be associated with basic politicalorientation—weak Republican and independent voters splitin favor of the Democratic incumbent and were far less likelyto vote a straight ticket for either party. Support for theDemocratic incumbent was explained in nonideological terms andwas based upon high recognition and favorability, constituentservice, voting record, and personal familiarity. For the Republicanchallenger, who never achieved a high level of recognition (despitesignificant campaign expenditure), support came almost solelyfrom the most partisan Republican members of the electorateand was based simply upon the party affiliation of the Republicanchallenger.     

Immediate and Delayed Responses to a Carter-Ford Debate: Assessing Public Opinion

The televised Carter-Ford debate elicited consistently morefavorable responses among young voters viewing in a lecturehall under controlled conditions and responding immediatelyafterward than among a comparable group who viewed it in settingsof their own choice and whose reactions were obtained only aftera lapse of four to seven days. Where the immediately-after reactionsdivided very much along partisan lines, the gains Ford registeredamong respondents of all political persuasions in the week followingare attributed to contamination by published poll results aboutthe Carter performance, criticism of the debate format, andother media coverage of the debate. Such findings underEne thefutility of tracing a particular response during a campaignto a specific message without taking into account the totalcommunication environment.     

INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR AND BIDDING HETEROGENEITY IN SEALED BID AUCTIONS WHERE THE NUMBER OF BIDDERS IS UNKNOWN

This article uses laboratory data from a series of first‐price (FP) and second‐price (SP) sealed bid auctions in which the number of bidders is unknown to test for possible deviations of individual behavior from theory and study the source of heterogeneity in bidding. In SP auctions we find a substantial amount of coincidence with theory. We observe systematic deviations from risk neutral bidding in FP auctions and show theoretically that these deviations are consistent with risk averse preferences. We find essentially no heterogeneity in bidding in SP auctions where risk preferences and the number of bidders do not affect the optimal bid, while in the FP auctions heterogeneity in bidding persists with experience. We find that heterogeneity in bidding in FP auctions is consistent with heterogeneity in risk preferences, the attempt to count the number of bidders in the auction, and bidder specific noise. (JEL D44, C91)     

METAPHORS FOR PUBLIC OPINION IN LITERATURE

Previous research found substantial effects of the race of theinterviewer on measures of civic attitudes and electoral participationof blacks in NES surveys from 1964, 1976, 1978, 1980, and 1984.This study extends the previous analysis in two ways: it usesdata from two additional NES surveys, 1982 and 1986; and itfocuses on the effects of the race of the interviewer on race-relatedattitudes. Blacks interviewed by whites were much more likelyto express warmth and closeness toward whites than were blacksinterviewed by blacks. But whereas there is no race-of-interviewereffect on blacks' expressions of warmth toward blacks, thereis a clear race-of-interviewer effect on blacks' expressionsof closeness toward blacks. The pattern of responses to thecloseness items appears to result from the format of the question.The observed trend of decreasing expressed closeness of blackstoward blacks in NES surveys between 1976 and 1984 is an artifactof changes in the racial composition of the interviewer staff.     

Preelection Polling in the 1982 Illinois Gubernatorial Contest

All the polls in advance of the 1982 Illinois gubernatorialelection proved incorrect in their prediction of a substantialvictory for James Thompson, the Republican. After examiningsome of the popular explanations for the "missed call," thispaper shows that while the voters "preferred" Thompson, therewas a very substantial increase in the number of straight partyballots cast for the Democrats, compared to 1978. This paperconcludes that in those states where straight party vote isan option, the poll takers probe for the possibility of a partyline vote. Information used in this paper to examine five hypothesesstems from a preelection poll of 1,200 Illinois voters.     

Generations and Ideological Change: Some Observations

The recollections of 28 cohorts of college graduates—allof them former recipients of Woodrow Wilson Fellowships forgraduate study—of historical events between 1945 and 1971and their participation in activities specifically associatedwith the peace movement and student activism of the 1960s werebrought to bear on Mannheim's theory of generations. The analysissuggests proportionately greater sensitivity to the events ofthe 1960s among those who reached the age of 20 near the middleof the decade, a finding that bears out generational theory.But despite this apparently heightened sensitivity among thosethe fight age at the right time, the effect of these recollectionsand experiences on attitudes expressed in 1973 was consistentlyovershadowed by even stronger attitudinal effects attributableto an early commitment to activism. The latter was more closelyrelated to the family milieu than to having come of age politicallyin a particular historical period. The data were obtained froma mail survey of 1321 former Wilson Fellows.     

TAXPAYER WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR HEALTH INSURANCE REFORM: A CONTINGENT VALUATION ANALYSIS

A key criterion for evaluating policies to expand health insurance coverage is weighing the costs of such policies against the willingness of the public to pay for coverage expansions. We use new panel survey data from New York State to estimate residents' willingness to pay (WTP) to expand public insurance coverage. Using a nonparametric double‐bounded contingent valuation (CV) approach, we specifically ask residents about their WTP to reduce the rate of uninsurance in the state. Our results imply an aggregate lower‐bound WTP of over $2,800 per year to cover one person. We also analyze heterogeneity in WTP by sub‐group and changes in individual WTP over time between 2008 and 2010. We find that a large majority of residents are willing to pay additional taxes to reduce the number of uninsured in the state, and that average WTP remained remarkably stable despite the economic downturn and the politically polarized discussions surrounding the Affordable Care Act. Decomposing the changes in individual WTP, we find that economic factors related to the recession, including changes in income and employment status, cannot explain changes in individual WTP, whereas individual changes in political opinions about health insurance reform between 2008 and 2010 are strongly correlated with changes in WTP. (JEL H20, H42, H51, H75, I13)     

BILATERAL OLIGOPOLY IN POLLUTION PERMIT MARKETS: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE

We experimentally investigate behavior in a bilateral oligopoly using a supply function equilibria model discussed by Klemperer and Meyer (1989), Hendricks and McAfee (2010), and Malueg and Yates (2009). We focus on the role that market size and the degree of firm heterogeneity have on the market equilibrium. Our results indicate that subjects within the experiment recognize the strategic incentives in a bilateral oligopoly, but they do not exploit these incentives to the exact magnitude predicted by theory. We find weaker support for predicted market outcomes, as market efficiency does not depend on market size, and in some cases buyers or sellers are more successful at extracting the rents from the market. (JEL L13, Q5, C9)