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1.
Keisuke Himoto 《Risk analysis》2020,40(6):1124-1138
Post-earthquake fires are high-consequence events with extensive damage potential. They are also low-frequency events, so their nature remains underinvestigated. One difficulty in modeling post-earthquake ignition probabilities is reducing the model uncertainty attributed to the scarce source data. The data scarcity problem has been resolved by pooling the data indiscriminately collected from multiple earthquakes. However, this approach neglects the inter-earthquake heterogeneity in the regional and seasonal characteristics, which is indispensable for risk assessment of future post-earthquake fires. Thus, the present study analyzes the post-earthquake ignition probabilities of five major earthquakes in Japan from 1995 to 2016 (1995 Kobe, 2003 Tokachi-oki, 2004 Niigata–Chuetsu, 2011 Tohoku, and 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes) by a hierarchical Bayesian approach. As the ignition causes of earthquakes share a certain commonality, common prior distributions were assigned to the parameters, and samples were drawn from the target posterior distribution of the parameters by a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the hierarchical model were comparatively analyzed with those of pooled and independent models. Although the pooled and hierarchical models were both robust in comparison with the independent model, the pooled model underestimated the ignition probabilities of earthquakes with few data samples. Among the tested models, the hierarchical model was least affected by the source-to-source variability in the data. The heterogeneity of post-earthquake ignitions with different regional and seasonal characteristics has long been desired in the modeling of post-earthquake ignition probabilities but has not been properly considered in the existing approaches. The presented hierarchical Bayesian approach provides a systematic and rational framework to effectively cope with this problem, which consequently enhances the statistical reliability and stability of estimating post-earthquake ignition probabilities. 相似文献
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This paper proposes an optimal combinatorial method for finding groups of industries with relatively large CO2 emissions through industrial relations. Using an economic input–output table, we estimated a non-symmetric matrix describing how much CO2 is emitted in producing the commodity of industry i, which was purchased to produce commodity of industry j, to meet the final demand for a specific commodity. A symmetric strength of relations matrix describing the CO2 emissions associated with the industrial relations was further estimated using the non-symmetric matrix. The strength of relations matrix can be viewed as a representation of the supply-chain network of the final commodity. In this study, we estimated the strength of relations matrix associated with the final demand for automobiles and applied the multiway cut approach using nonnegative matrix factorization to the matrix in order to find environmentally important industry clusters in the Japanese automobile supply chain. According to our empirical results, the optimal number of industry clusters is 19, and 4 industry clusters are playing a key role in CO2 emission reduction. 相似文献
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Summary Larvae of genusPieris in the northern part of Kyoto City are parasitized by two tachinid flies:Epicampocera succincta, a specialist on genusPieris, andCompsilura concinnata, a generalist with very wide host-range. We surveyed the parasitism rates ofPieris by both flies for two years at six study areas. In these study areas, there lived three host species in the genusPieris: P. rapae, P. melete, andP. napi, but neither tachinid parasitizedP. napi to any significant extent. In the mountainous district,P. rapae andP. melete coexisted and their populations were relatively continuous, while in the lowland, onlyP. rapae larvae were abundant in spring and autumn, but even they disappeared in summer. Parasitisms byE. succincta occurred mainly in mountainous district and never in the lowland.C. concinnata parasitizedPieris in all the areas, but its parasitisms occurred mainly in autumn.
We analyzed the factors affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of parasitism rates and presumed that the temporal discontinuity
of host population restricted the distribution of the specialist parasitoid. 相似文献
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5.
Keisuke Hirano Jack R. Porter 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2009,77(5):1683-1701
This paper develops asymptotic optimality theory for statistical treatment rules in smooth parametric and semiparametric models. Manski (2000, 2002, 2004) and Dehejia (2005) have argued that the problem of choosing treatments to maximize social welfare is distinct from the point estimation and hypothesis testing problems usually considered in the treatment effects literature, and advocate formal analysis of decision procedures that map empirical data into treatment choices. We develop large‐sample approximations to statistical treatment assignment problems using the limits of experiments framework. We then consider some different loss functions and derive treatment assignment rules that are asymptotically optimal under average and minmax risk criteria. 相似文献
6.
Keisuke Hirano Jack R. Porter 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2012,80(4):1769-1790
We examine challenges to estimation and inference when the objects of interest are nondifferentiable functionals of the underlying data distribution. This situation arises in a number of applications of bounds analysis and moment inequality models, and in recent work on estimating optimal dynamic treatment regimes. Drawing on earlier work relating differentiability to the existence of unbiased and regular estimators, we show that if the target object is not differentiable in the parameters of the data distribution, there exist no estimator sequences that are locally asymptotically unbiased or α‐quantile unbiased. This places strong limits on estimators, bias correction methods, and inference procedures, and provides motivation for considering other criteria for evaluating estimators and inference procedures, such as local asymptotic minimaxity and one‐sided quantile unbiasedness. 相似文献
7.
Summary We compared the seasonal changes in population density and nymphal development at different water temperatures and under different
food conditions between two giant water bugs,Diplonychus japonicus andD. major, in Okayama, Japan.
D. japonicus produced 1–2 generations a year, whileD. major was strictly inivoltine. The developmental velocity was higher inD. japonicus than inD. major. The thermal constant ofD. japonicus was less than that ofD. major. These results suggest thatD. japonicus is adapted, to higher water temperature thanD. major. In the field,D. japonicus preyed predominately on Lymnaeidae and Physidae snails, whileD. major preyed on aquatic insects such as dragonfly nymphs. 相似文献
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We investigate the impact of domestic financial frictions on the current account dynamics in Asian countries before and after the Asian financial crisis in 1997–1998 by introducing collateral constraints into the intertemporal current account approach. We examine six Asian countries. Before the crisis, collateral constraints significantly impact the current account in Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, but after the crisis, they do not. Our study shows that the impact of domestic financial frictions on the current account changes before and after a financial crisis. (JEL F32, F41) 相似文献
10.
Intra- and interspecific larval interactions that take place in a host body were investigated for two tachnid fliesEpicampocera succincta andCompsilura concinnata (Diptera: Tachinidae) parasitizingPieris butterfly larvae.E. succincta, a specialist onPieris butterflies, showed contest-type intraspecific competition, eliminating all the other conspecific larvae. On the other hand,
an extreme generalist parasitoidC. concinnata exhibited scramble-type competition, sharing the host with other conspecifics and suffering reduced body size as a result.
However, when these two species occurred together in a single host,C. concinnata had a much higher chance of survival. Moreover,C. concinnata could often survive in the presence of a parasitoid waspCotesia glomerata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) whileE. succincta could not. The high tolerance ofC. concinnata could be attributable to its being an extreme generalist: To attack and survive on many different hosts, one has to be able
to deal with various competitors. The competitive inferiority of the specialistE. succincta, on the other hand, may be a result of relatively recent encounter with, those competitors. 相似文献