Reporting on The State of Canada's Environment

The 750 page report,The State of Canada's Environment, is the collaborative effort of more than 100 experts from universities, private industry, environmental groups, and government. In 27 chapters the report addresses four fundamental questions about Canada's environment: what are the key environmental conditions and trends in Canada; what are the links between human activities and environmental changes; what are the environmental, economic, and health implications of these changes; and what are Canadians doing to address the concerns identified? Topics examined include: environmental components (air, fresh and marine water, land, and wildlife), human activities that affect the environment (e.g. forestry, agriculture, fisheries, urbanization), as well as six regional case studies and major environmental issues such as toxic chemicals, ozone depletion and acid rain. The report also indicates areas where Canadians have made progress toward sustainable development and identifies areas where work remains to be done. Actions that are being taken to strengthen state of the environment reporting in Canada, including the development of indicators, are also briefly discussed.     

Toward the development of an adolescent gambling problem severity scale

The development and initial psychometric properties of an adolescent gambling problem severity measure are described. The scale, based on a revision of the South Oaks Gambling Screen (Lesieur & Blume, 1987), was administered to 1,101 older (ages 15 to 18) Minnesota adolescents as part of a state-wide gambling survey. Study results indicated that the scale had moderate internal consistency reliability and was significantly related to alternate measures of problem severity for male subjects. Because the rate and severity of gambling among females was very low, the psychometric adequacy of the scale for females is not known at this time. The implications of study findings to the conceptual understanding of adolescent gambling problem severity as well as study limitations and future research needs, are discussed.Support for the study was provided by the Minnesota Department of Human Services and the Center for Addiction Studies, University of Minnesota, Duluth. The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance from Robert Blum, Linda Harris, Durand Jacobs, J. Laundergan, Alan Mathiason, Brenda Miller, James Schaefer, school officials from the participating high schools, and interviewers who assisted with the telephone survey.     

Unions,PAC contributions,and the NAFTA vote

Political action committees (PACs), especially those controlled by organized labor and business, have been shown to affect Congressional voting. We explore how PACs influenced the House of Representatives’ vote on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The NAFTA vote is analyzed because organized labor strongly opposed the treaty while business generally supported it and because of the straight-forward voting generated by its fast-track status. Probit analysis of a unique, unpublished data set containing information about PAC and non-PAC contributions to the 1992 House election campaigns demonstrates that Representatives who depended largely on labor PACs tended to oppose NAFTA, while Representatives who derived a large proportion of their campaign contributions from business PACs tended to favor its passage.     

Social Sanctions in the Comprehensive High School and Language Acquisition

The organization of pupils in a boys' comprehensive high school into homogeneous teaching units in order to eliminate the psychological, social and academic effects of streaming by ability may be dysfunctional if the objectives of the institution include the attainment of higher verbal standards. A practising teacher identifies the establishment by pupils of a ‘verbal norm’, and describes the system of social sanctions imposed by the verbally less proficient against the above-average pupil.     

Survival Convergence and the Preceding Mortality Crossover for Two Population Subgroups

In this paper, we present and develop the argument that if the survival functions for two population subgroups converge in later life, a mortality crossover must precede the occurrence of this convergence. Specifically, two survival curves, S ₁(x) and S ₂(x), associated with two distinct population subgroups, G₁ and G₂, tend to converge before all members die out, as often observed and anticipated. This convergence leads to an increased mortality acceleration for the “advantaged” group, and eventually fosters the occurrence of a mortality crossover. We present a mathematical proof for this relationship and offer several explanations for the mechanisms involved in the process of survival convergence and the preceding mortality crossover. This new presentation demonstrates that mortality crossover is a highly observable demographic event given the trend of survival convergence in later life.     

Confidence intervals on p(y < x) for small sample sizes

When F = G^a, confidence intervals are derived and presented in graphs for p = P(Y < X), when X and Y are independent and the sample sizes are at most 25. Also, it is demonstrated via a monte carlo simulation that this is a robust procedure, when the distributions of X and Y differ by a location parameter.     

CUSUM Hypothesis Tests and Alternative Response Probabilities for Finite Poisson Trials

This article develops a new cumulative sum statistic to identify aberrant behavior in a sequentially administered multiple-choice standardized examination. The examination responses can be described as finite Poisson trials, and the statistic can be used for other applications which fit this framework. The standardized examination setting uses a maximum likelihood estimate of examinee ability and an item response theory model. Aberrant and non aberrant probabilities are computed by an odds ratio analogous to risk adjusted CUSUM schemes. The significance level of a hypothesis test, where the null hypothesis is non-aberrant examinee behavior, is computed with Markov chains. A smoothing process is used to spread probabilities across the Markov states. The practicality of the approach to detect aberrant examinee behavior is demonstrated with results from both simulated and empirical data.