Migrant employment and the recession--the case of the Irish in Britain

"The past decade has witnessed a substantial contraction in the size of the Irishborn community in Britain. This paper uses shift share analysis to assess the extent to which job losses amongst the Irish in Britain over the years 1971-1977 may have induced return migration to Ireland. The article concludes that such 'push' factors are likely to have been relatively weak in comparison to the 'pull' of an Irish economy considerably more buoyant than that of Britain."     

The Bayesian Microbial Subtyping Attribution Model: Robustness to Prior Information and a Proposition

Attributing foodborne illnesses to food sources is essential to conceive, prioritize, and assess the impact of public health policy measures. The Bayesian microbial subtyping attribution model by Hald et al. is one of the most advanced approaches to attribute sporadic cases; it namely allows taking into account the level of exposure to the sources and the differences between bacterial types and between sources. This step forward requires introducing type and source‐dependent parameters, and generates overparameterization, which was addressed in Hald's paper by setting some parameters to constant values. We question the impact of the choices made for the parameterization (parameters set and values used) on model robustness and propose an alternative parameterization for the Hald model. We illustrate this analysis with the 2005 French data set of non‐typhi Salmonella. Mullner's modified Hald model and a simple deterministic model were used to compare the results and assess the accuracy of the estimates. Setting the parameters for bacterial types specific to a unique source instead of the most frequent one and using data‐based values instead of arbitrary values enhanced the convergence and adequacy of the estimates and led to attribution estimates consistent with the other models’ results. The type and source parameters estimates were also coherent with Mullner's model estimates. The model appeared to be highly sensitive to parameterization. The proposed solution based on specific types and data‐based values improved the robustness of estimates and enabled the use of this highly valuable tool successfully with the French data set.     

A comparative cost analysis of alternative models of adult day care

An analysis of the component costs of adult day care (ADC) programs in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania indicates widely varying experiences in terms of fiscal and contractual administrative arrangements. Medical model ADC, program-funded services, and those agencies performing their own client assessments reported higher client per diems than the social model, slot-funded, and non-ADC assessed programs. For-profits displayed cost characteristics similar to their not-for-profit counterparts. Medical and slot-funded programs more frequently turned to multiple sources for budget supplementation. All program types tended to depend on voluntary client contribution methods as compared to means-tested approaches when determining fee-for-service.