Out-migration and ethnic communities

"Comparative analysis of out-migration [in the United States]...reveals substantial ethnic differentials. Part of the variation results from group compositional differences in social class and other characteristics normally related to migration, particularly age, education and local birth. Equally important, however, are indicators of social and economic bonds." The data concern 3,345 adults who were first interviewed between 1967 and 1969 in Rhode Island and were reinterviewed in 1970, 1971, and 1979. "The results suggest that ethnic groups characterized by a dense network of social and economic ties do not sponsor out-migration, which has been the emphasis of many past studies of chain migration and migrant assimilation. Rather, they deter out-migration by providing alternative opportunities within the ethnic community."     

Political assessment by international firms: Models or methodologies?

Political risk is defined in terms of managerial contingencies arising from political events and processes. A number of “first-generation” assessment methodologies are reviewed and compared in terms of their degree of structure (explicit model of process) and systemization (formalization of methodology). The paper concludes that, at this point, effective political assessment is more likely to result from explicit specification of causal relationships and implementation of systematic analytical procedures than from development of increased methodological sophistication or elegance.     

Changing families and changing mobility: Their impact on the central city

Urban scholars and planners look to evidence of recent gains in the number of nontraditional households as a potential source of increase to the population sizes and tax bases of declining central cities. While it is now well established that substantial gains in the numbers of small, nontraditional households have occurred since the 1950s, it has not been demonstrated that: (a) these households are more likely to relocate in the city than traditional family households (husband-wife with children under 18); or (b) their cityward relocation patterns will significantly alter trends toward smaller city household populations. This paper addresses these questions by examining changes in city-suburb migration stream rates by household type over periods 1955–60, 1965–70 and 1970–75 for large metropolitan areas, and assesses their implications for potential changes in the aggregate sizes of city household populations.     

Living arrangements and the transition to adulthood

The sharp decline with age in the percent of young adults who live with their parents is usually attributed to other concurrent life-cycle changes in the "transition to adulthood." We investigate this presumption using data tracking high school seniors seven years after graduation. Although marriage and military service strongly reduce residential dependence on parents, other life-cycle changes such as employment and parenthood are only weakly associated with living arrangements and often affect returning home more than leaving. "Leaving home" is often independent of other transition events and should be studied directly to understand recent patterns of family change.     

Some effects of spouse separation on fertility

Simple probability models incorporating an approximation first demonstrated by Menken (1979) are used to study births averted by two classes of temporary spouse separation, single and cyclic, under conditions of natural fertility. For either class of spouse separation, births averted increases disproportionately with longer separation. For a given length of separation, births prevented are more sensitive to change in length of anovulation than to change in level ofnatural fecundability or risk of spontaneous abortion. In addition, by means of the macrosimulation model REPMOD (Bongaarts, 1977), it is shown that the fertility impact of temporary spouse separation tends to decrease as couples age.     

试论邓小平两篇宣言书的时代力量

邓小平的《解放思想，实事求是，团结一致向前看》与１９９２年南方谈话体现了强大的时代力量。这两篇宣言书以其解放思想、实事求是的力量，推动全党与全国人民冲破了思想牢笼从清了“什么是社会主义、怎样建设社会主义”，懂得了可以学习借鉴资本主义，并坚定了党的基本路线一百年不动摇的信念。     

The fall in household size and the rise of the primary individual in the United States

The long-term fall in household size in the United States is discussed within the framework of the aging of the population, continuing as the effects of fertility and mortality decline accumulate. Using distributions of households by size from U.S. census data 1790–1970 and a components of change analysis on primary individuals for 1950–1974, household changes are related to demographic change for the periods 1790–1900, 1900–1950, and 1950–1974. Fertility and mortality declines have unambiguous impact on household size until the increases in primary individuals begin. But these, too, have a theoretically interesting, if indirect relationship to population structure.