SHOULD OIL PRICES RECEIVE SO MUCH ATTENTION? AN EVALUATION OF THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF OIL PRICES FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY

This paper evaluates the potential gains from using oil prices to forecast a variety of measures of inflation, economic activity, and monetary policy–related variables. With a few exceptions, oil prices do not have any predictive content for these variables. This finding is robust to the use of rolling forecast windows, the use of industry‐level data, changes in the forecast horizon, and allowing for nonlinearities. (JEL Q43, E37, C32)     

PREDICTING INFLATION: DOES THE QUANTITY THEORY HELP?

Various inflation forecasting models are compared for the period 1979–2003 using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. Our findings are (1) M2 has marginal predictive content for inflation; (2) it is necessary to allow for the possibility that money, prices, and output are cointegrated; and (3) cointegration vector parameter estimation error is important when making out-of-sample forecasts. Consistent with previous work, we find a structural break in the early 1990s, but the break was easily detected and would not have affected out-of-sample inflation forecasts. Two Monte Carlo experiments that lend credence to our findings are also reported on.(JEL E31 , C32 )     

Ideology and the Tax Revolt: Florida's Amendment 1

A number of researchers have concluded that the tax revolt ismotivated by an antigovernment ideology which is distributeddiffusely in the mass public. However, public opinion on Florida'sAmendment 1 was fragmented into a number of separate issue publics,with different sets of voters expressing different concerns.The implication of this finding is that prevailing interpretationsof the tax revolt have overestimated the role of ideology.     

EFFECTS OF INTERVIEWER GENDER, INTERVIEWER CHOICE, AND ITEM WORDING ON RESPONSES TO QUESTIONS CONCERNING SEXUAL BEHAVIOR

We examined factors influencing responses to questions on sexualbehavior among adult respondents 18–49 years old (unweightedN = 2,030) obtained through a random-digit dialing survey. Basedon self-disclosure and perceived control the ory, we hypothesizedthat giving people a choice in selecting the gender of theirinterviewer rather than being assigned an inter viewer, andusing questions that are "supportive" of what may be perceivedof as nonnormative behavior (enhanced items), would increasedata quality relative to, respectively, matched-or opposite-genderinterviewer conditions and standard worded items. The enhanceditems facilitated responding to a number of sensitive topics.However, the effects of item wording on item response are oftenmediated by interviewer conditions. The "choice" results suggestthat giving respondents greater control decreases question threat.However, the overall findings argue for matching respondentsand interviewers on gender over opposite-gender interviewersor allowing respondents to select their interviewer's gender.Wording and interviewer manipulations reduced the discrepanciesbetween men's and women's self-reports of sexual behavior, butthey did not eliminate them, and in some cases they had no effect.The present findings suggest that males tend to be influencedby variations in item wording, interviewer gender, and respondentcontrol across a somewhat wider range of sexual topics. In general,the findings recommend matching respondents and interviewerson gender and the use of more supportive wording in sexual behaviorquestions. However, for assessment of some topics (e.g., sexualviolence) in particular segments of the population (e.g., men),other procedures, such as increasing respondent control, maybe a better choice. Overall, the data support the view thatin terms of preferred procedures, not all sexual topics arecreated equal.     

ESTIMATING COMMUNITY STANDARDS: THE USE OF SOCIAL SCIENCE EVIDENCE IN AN OBSCENITY PROSECUTION

Elements of the legal test for obscenity of sexually explicitmaterial indicted in a criminal case are examined. A cross-sectionof residents of Mecklenburg County (Charlotte, NC) were randomlyassigned to view either one of the sexually explicit films andthe sexually explicit magazine charged in the criminal case,or a control film. Before and after the viewing, residents judgedthe materials' appeal to a prurient interest (a shameful, morbid,unhealthy interest in sex) and patent offen siveness (communitytolerance for such material). The results indicated that therespondents felt that the films and magazine did not appealto a shameful, morbid, or unhealthy interest in sex, nor didthey perceive these materials as going beyond the level of toleranceregarding depictions of sexual conduct for the average adultin that community. A lower percentage of subjects thought thecommunity tolerated the materials they had just viewed thanwhen they were asked to report on what they personally tolerated.Fewer people felt the films appealed to a shameful, morbid,or unhealthy interest in sex after they had an opportunity tosee them than before viewing. The advantages of providing jurorsin obscenity cases with information about community standardsbased on summations of personal tolerance for materials actuallycharged in these cases, rather than hypothetical judgments aboutthe community and obscenity, is discussed.     

ANALYZING RENT CONTROL: THE CASE OF LOS ANGELES

An accurate assessment of the economic effects of a rent control law requires that both the specific provisions of the ordinance and the characteristics of the local housing market be considered. Examining the case of Los Angeles we conclude: First, most of the transfers from landlords to tenants were realized early in the law's life, while most of the economic cost of rent control was incurred later. Second, ordinance provisions aimed at increasing landlords' incentives to maintain rent-controlled dwellings also markedly reduce the size of the transfers to tenants. These results, we think, will apply to other jurisdictions.     

Straightening the Seam Effect in Panel Surveys

Panel surveys, such as the Survey of Income and Program Participationand the Consumer Expenditure Survey, interview respondents every3 or 4 months, but ask the respondents for monthly data. A typicalfinding in such surveys is that changes in responses to a questionare relatively small for adjacent months within a referenceperiod but much more abrupt for adjacent months across referenceperiods. Previous studies have attributed this "seam effect"either to underreporting of changes within the periods or tooverreporting of changes across them. In the present studies,we attempt to distinguish these possibilities, using an experimentalmethod that allows us to gauge respondents' accuracy as wellas the number of times they change their answers. The studiesproduced seam effects and accompanying evidence for forgettingof queried information and bias toward constant responses withinthe reference period. In general, seam effects appear to increaseas a function of the demands on memory. We also find that separatingquestions with the same content in the survey instrument decreasesthe seam effect. To account for these data, we propose a modelin which respondents' answers are initially based on attemptedmemory retrieval. Inability to recall leads to (possibly biased)guessing or subsequent repetition of an earlier answer.     

Achieving quality in day care for young children

SUMMARY. In a service such as day care, different beliefs about appropriate child care and family patterns make quality a relative concept. However, service providers should work towards overall aims and specific goals established on values and beliefs about day care. It is argued that the day care service needs to tackle the definition of quality, for the job satisfaction of the service providers, for the well being of the children involved and for the satisfaction and peace of mind of the parents. The day care service needs to take heed of the customers of the service—the children and the parents—and to move from a position of apology and defence to a positive evaluation of what quality can mean The article expands a presentation by one of the authors (JL) to the Values and Quality in Day Care Seminar, organised by the National Children's Bureau Under Fives Unit on 16 February 1988