Using a Reconviction Predictor to Make Sense of Reconviction Rates in the Probation Service

Correspondence to John Wilkinson, Research Officer, Inner London Probation Service, Lansdale House, 57 Buckingham Gate, London SW1E 6AJ. Summary Reducing offending is a main aim of the probation service, butfew mechanisms exist to monitor how this is achieved. This paperdescribes how information about reconvictions can provide routinefeedback about effectiveness in combating offending. Using areconviction predictor, outcome, in terms of reconviction rate,can be evaluated against predicted outcome. A predictor wasvalidated for use in Inner London using case records. Informationwas obtained retrospectively about offenders at the start oftheir probation orders, and about subsequent reconvictions overthirteen months of probation. The predictor was found to haveconsiderable predictive power. The predictor was piloted forroutine use by probation officers, and a customized versionof the predictor was developed. The research is now moving intoa third stage, of developing an end of probation order returnwhich will supply information about reconvictions. Issues relatingto the use of reconvictions as a performance indicator, aondquestions of implementation, are discussed.     

Individual and Community Factors Affecting Psychological Sense of Community,Attraction, and Neighboring in Rural Communities*

L'échelle de Buckner, qui comporte trois dimensions—sentiment communautaire (SC), attractivité et voisinage—, fut appliquée à 1,995 personnes de 20 villages canadiens afin d'y mesurer le sentiment de cohésion sociale. Le nombre d'enfants, un revenu dépassant 20,000 $, l'âge, le lieu de naissance et le nombre d'années dans la collectivité exercent une influence positive sur le SC et l'attractivité. Le nombre d'enfants, un revenu dépassant 40,000 $, le lieu de naissance et le nombre d'années dans la collectivité influent de manière significative sur le voisinage. L'interaction accroît généralement la cohésion sociale individuelle. La localisation sur une île étant la seule variable communautaire significative, les politiques individuelles sont à privilégier pour accroître la cohésion. One thousand nine hundred ninety‐five individuals in 20 rural Canadian communities were measured on perceived social cohesion by the three Buckner scale subdimensions: psychological sense of community (PSOC), attraction, and neighboring. Number of household children, income over $20,000, age, birthplace in, and years lived in the community significantly positively influenced PSOC and Attraction. Number of household children (positive for income over $20,000; otherwise negative), income over $40,000, birthplace, and years in the community significantly influenced neighboring. Increased interaction generally increases individuals' social cohesion. As the only significant community variable was being on an island province, individual‐oriented policies are recommended to increase cohesion.     

Labor Market Transitions of Immigrant-Born, Refugee-Born, and Canadian-Born Youth

Cet article a pour but d'analyser les expériences du marché du travail des jeunes nés de parents immigrants, réfugiés et canadiens en utilisant deux ensembles de données de 1998, l'Enquête sur la dynamique du travail et du revenu, et L'enquête sur le rétablissement des réfugiés en Alberta. Son ambition première est de comprendre leurs expériences de travail, étant donné qu'elles sont essentielles à leur intégration et à leur passage à l'âge adulte. D'un point de vue pratique, les résultats aident les fournisseurs de services de première ligne en procurant de l'information supplémentaire sur les besoins liés à l'emploi des jeunes nouveaux arrivants. Théoriquement, cette étude a pour objectif de mieux comprendre un des aspects de l'intégration — l'emploi —, étant donné que l'information actuelle ne décrit pas adéquatement les expériences de ces jeunes. Dans l'ensemble, cette recherche augmente les connaissances sur l'intégration des jeunes nés de parents immigrants et réfugiés sur le marché canadien du travail. This paper examines the labor market experiences of immigrant‐born, refugee‐born, and Canadian‐born youth using two data sets, the 1998 Survey on Labour and Income Dynamics and the 1998 Refugee Resettlement to Alberta Survey. Its main objective is to understand their job experiences as they are crucial to their integration and transition to adulthood. On a practical level, the findings help front‐line service providers by providing additional information about the employment‐related needs of newcomer youth. Theoretically, this research aims to develop a better understanding of one aspect of the integration, employment, as current information does not adequately describe the experiences of newcomer youth. Taken together, this research increases knowledge about the integration of immigrant‐born and refugee‐born youth in the Canadian labor market.     

COMPETITION AND TEACHER PAY

Competition‐based school reform could have a significant impact on teacher earnings. If school districts behave as typical oligopsonists, then increased competition could lead to higher salaries. However, if teachers receive a share of the economic rents generated by the monopoly power of school districts, then increased competition could lower teacher salaries. This study uses panel data from 670 Texas school districts and more than 335,000 teachers to examine the relationship between school competition and teacher pay. The analysis suggests that an increase in competition results in higher wages for most teachers but lower wages for teachers in relatively concentrated markets. (JEL I2, J3)