Bayesian updating of atmospheric dispersion after a nuclear accident

Summary.  We consider a Bayesian forecasting system to predict the dispersal of contamination on a large scale grid in the event of an accidental release of radioactivity. The statistical model is built on a physical model for atmospheric dispersion and transport called MATCH. Our spatiotemporal model is a dynamic linear model where the state parameters are the (essentially, deterministic) predictions of MATCH; the distributions of these are updated sequentially in the light of monitoring data. One of the distinguishing features of the model is that the number of these parameters is very large (typically several hundreds of thousands) and we discuss practical issues arising in its implementation as a realtime model. Our procedures have been checked against a variational approach which is used widely in the atmospheric sciences. The results of the model are applied to test data from a tracer experiment.     

Welche Lohnungleichheiten sind gerecht?Which income inequalities are considered just?

This article examines the reasons for inequalities of earnings in Germany and the extent to which these inequalities are considered to be legitimate. We focus on three major inequality-generating factors derived from labour market and inequality research: individual, firm-specific and structural factors. We then investigate empirically the importance of these factors in the emergence of differences of earnings and the extent to which employees consider the rents of each factor to be just or unjust. Analyses based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel reveal that wage differentials are considered as just if they can be attributed to individual factors (level of education, professional experience). In contrast, wage differentials due to firm-specific factors (atypical employment, seniority-based pay) and structural factors (certain occupational groups/industries, differences between regions) are the major reasons for perceived earnings injustice. The results of this study will contribute to the debate concerning increasing wage inequalities and reveal that distinguishing between just and unjust inequalities is essential, especially in discussions regarding the social or political consequences of this trend.     

'Where are the lesbians in Chaucer?' Lack, opportunity and female homoeroticism in Medieval Studies today

This article explores the study of lesbians in the Middle Ages and proposes that the unstable construct of lesbian poses a problem for traditional Medieval Studies that can lead to the development in Medieval Studies of more nuanced and productive theorizing.     

Attitudes and Risk Perceptions of Stakeholders in a Nuclear Waste Siting Issue

Stakeholders are often regarded as a critically important group in such issues as the siting of nuclear facilities. In this article, stakeholders were identified on the basis of self-reported activities with regard to a nuclear waste siting issue under debate in four communities. Data were obtained in an extensive mailed survey from a total of 2,548 respondents, approximately an equal number from each community. The overall response rate was 43.9%. Some of the results and telephone interviews with a sample of the nonrespondents indicated that the data are reasonably representative of the respective populations. Stakeholder activities were measured by 20 questions and combined with an index of stakeholder activity level, dichotomized at the 90th percentile. Stakeholders were found to have a higher level of education than others, but otherwise they did not differ in demographics. They did not tend to see risks in general as high, but were quite interested and involved in the nuclear waste siting issue. The stakeholder activity level correlated with risk perception and attitudes in the waste siting issue, but with different signs for those who were for and those who were opposed: stakeholders of both types had more extreme views than others, but in different directions. In addition, stakeholder opponents were much more likely to strongly espouse extreme statements regarding the project than were supporters who also were stakeholders. Implications for risk management and communication are discussed.