Trend estimation of multivariate time series with controlled smoothness

This paper extends the univariate time series smoothing approach provided by penalized least squares to a multivariate setting, thus allowing for joint estimation of several time series trends. The theoretical results are valid for the general multivariate case, but particular emphasis is placed on the bivariate situation from an applied point of view. The proposal is based on a vector signal-plus-noise representation of the observed data that requires the first two sample moments and specifying only one smoothing constant. A measure of the amount of smoothness of an estimated trend is introduced so that an analyst can set in advance a desired percentage of smoothness to be achieved by the trend estimate. The required smoothing constant is determined by the chosen percentage of smoothness. Closed form expressions for the smoothed estimated vector and its variance-covariance matrix are derived from a straightforward application of generalized least squares, thus providing best linear unbiased estimates for the trends. A detailed algorithm applicable for estimating bivariate time series trends is also presented and justified. The theoretical results are supported by a simulation study and two real applications. One corresponds to Mexican and US macroeconomic data within the context of business cycle analysis, and the other one to environmental data pertaining to a monitored site in Scotland.     

Maternal Household Decision-Making Autonomy and Adolescent Education in Honduras

Maternal decision-making autonomy has been linked to positive outcomes for children’s health and well-being early in life in low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. However, there is a dearth of research examining if and how maternal autonomy continues to influence children’s outcomes into adolescence and whether it impacts other domains of children’s lives beyond health, such as their education. The goal of this study was to determine whether high maternal decision-making was associated with school enrollment for secondary school-aged youth in Honduras. Further, we aimed to assess whether the relationships between maternal autonomy and school enrollment varied by adolescents’ environmental contexts and individual characteristics such as gender. Our analytical sample included 6579 adolescents ages 12–16 living with their mothers from the Honduran Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2011–2012. We used stepwise logistic regression models to investigate the association between maternal household decision-making autonomy and adolescents’ school enrollment. Our findings suggest that adolescents, especially girls, benefit from their mothers’ high decision-making autonomy. Findings suggest that maternal decision-making autonomy promotes adolescents’ school enrollment above and beyond other maternal, household, and regional influences.     

Developing a Low‐Cost Technique for Parallel Cross‐Cultural Instrument Development: The Question Appraisal System (QAS‐04)

Many approaches are used to prepare instruments for multicultural administration, depending on the scope, schedule and budget of the study. Sequential questionnaire development, the most common approach to developing cross‐cultural instruments, is also the most affordable. Designers formulate and pretest an instrument in the source language, then translate it into the target language(s) using culture‐specific tailoring. In contrast, parallel development incorporates target cultures throughout the design and pretesting process. The disadvantages to parallel development are that it is expensive, time‐consuming and subject to version control problems. Question Appraisal System (QAS) is a coding tool for pretesting instruments. The QAS is supported by an item taxonomy of the cognitive demands of a question and documents the features that may lead to response error. Results of the appraisal are used to revise question wording, response wording, questionnaire format and question ordering. This article describes research conducted to update the QAS to identify problems due to cross‐cultural and cross‐linguistic application of questions.     

Good Effects of Bad Feelings: Negative Affectivity and Group Decision‐making

Extending the growing interest in the relationship between affect and workgroup processes, we propose that groups make better use of their distributed information and therefore make better decisions when group members are higher in negative affectivity. In an experiment, we studied the influence of negative affectivity when information was distributed among group members and when group members had fully shared information. Results indicated that negative affectivity indeed stimulates group information processing and decision quality when information is distributed among group members.     

An Alternative Theoretical Explanation and Empirical Insights into Overordering Behavior in Supply Chains*

The beer game and the supply line underweighting theory are central to our knowledge of decision making in dynamic environments such as supply chains. The core of these theories is that people are incapable of recognizing the pipeline inventory and this is the main cause of overordering and dysfunctional behavior. This article identifies lacunae in the theoretical and empirical foundations of extant literature and proposes an alternate explanation, a “correction model,” explaining why overreactions occur. We adopt a multi‐method research design, comprising a field case study and laboratory experiments, to ground our findings. [Submitted: July 19, 2010. Revisions received: December 8, 2010; March 14, 2011. Accepted: March 28, 2011.]     

Orientierungsprozesse im Vertrauensdilemma. Beziehungskonstruktionen in Beratungen zur privaten Altersvorsorge

Financial advice given by consultants is crucial for retirement saving decisions. We argue that those willing to save are facing a dilemma since there is a widespread mistrust towards the financial industry while financial advice is indispensable for coping with complexity in the decision process. Exploring the case of the state-subsidized Riester-pension in Germany, we show that savers construct personal relationships with the advisor to deal with this complex dilemma in terms of theories on trust. Using a mixed-method design embracing both quantitative techniques—cross-sectional as well as longitudinal (fixed-effects) approaches—and qualitative evidence, we shed new light on old age saving decisions. In detail, the exploitation of longitudinal surveys (of GSOEP and the German SAVE Panel 2004–2010) and of 18 problem-centred interviews provides the following findings: (1) Retirement saving decisions often rely on pre-existing relationships to financial advisors. (2) The less alternative resources available, the more savers rely on these relationships. (3) Financial advisors use their existing relationships to sell pensions. (4) The qualitative material unveils different patterns concerning the decision-making process which are trusteeship, strategic alliance, and acceptable ad-hoc collaboration. Altogether, the widespread idea of private retirement saving resulting from an atomistic and rational planning of the future is an illusion.