Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

Beyond ‘bikelash’: engaging with community opposition to cycle lanes

This article explores the phenomenon of ‘bikelash’, or organised community opposition to cycle lanes. Urban residents commonly cite bicycle lanes, a space on the road reserved for cyclists, as the infrastructure most likely to encourage them to cycle. Yet the introduction of cycle lanes is often controversial. This article explores the phenomenon of bikelash, asking: Why does it occur? And what are the best ways to respond to it? A critical review of the literature on ‘contested’ cycle lane projects is undertaken in order to explore how this phenomenon can best be conceptualised within a mobilities framework.     

Use of Professional and Informal Support by Black Men with Mental Disorders

This study utilized data from the National Survey of American Life to investigate the use of professional services and informal support among African American and Caribbean black men with a lifetime mood, anxiety, or substance use disorder. Thirty-three percent used both professional services and informal support, 14% relied on professional services only, 24% used informal support only, and 29% did not seek help. African American men were more likely than to rely on informal support alone. Having co-occurring mental and substance disorders, experiencing an episode in the past 12 months, and having more people in the informal network increased the likelihood of using professional services and informal supports. Marital status, age, and socioeconomic status were also significantly related to help-seeking. The results suggests potential unmet need. However, the reliance on informal support also suggests a strong protective role that informal networks play in the lives of black men.     

New Spatial Concepts Between Innovation and Lock-in: The Case of the Dutch Deltametropolis

It is often proclaimed that planning concepts serve an innovative function in the political process. They are praised as powerful tools that carry new insights and understandings into policy arenas. By examining the emergence and development of a new planning concept in the Dutch national spatial policy-making process, the deltametropolis concept, this paper questions this position. It argues that new spatial concepts tend to lose much of their innovative capacities when they enter the political arena and become encased in the traditional urban–rural planning discourse, thus reaffirming established planning orientations. The Dutch case of the deltametropolis illustrates that new spatial concepts may entail potential for innovation as much as for lock-in.     

Evaluating the Simplified Conjoint Expected Risk Model: Comparing the Use of Objective and Subjective Information

The simplified Conjoint Expected Risk (CER) model by Holtgrave and Weber posits that perceived risk is a linear combination of the subjective judgments of the probabilities of harm, benefit, and status quo, and the expected harm and benefit of an activity. It modifies Luce and Weber's original CER model—that uses objective information to evaluate financial gambles—to accommodate activities such as health/technology activities where values of the model variables are subjective. If the simplified model is a valid modification of the original model, its performance should not be sensitive to the use of subjective information. However, because people may evaluate information differently when objective information is provided to them than when they generate information on their own, the performance of the simplified CER model may not be robust to the source of model-variable information. We compared the use of objective and subjective information, and results indicate that the estimates of the simplified CER model parameters and the proportion of variance in risk judgments accounted for by the model are similar under these two conditions. Thus, the simplified CER model is viable with activities for which harm and benefit information is subjective.     

‘Belonging’ and ‘Otherness’: Sex Equality in Banking in Turkey and Britain

The struggle for sex equality at work has largely been achieved in the developed world, it is claimed. The number of well‐qualified young women entering white‐collar employment and achieving promotion to first‐line and middle management positions now matches or exceeds their male peers. Many young women have high career aspirations and argue that sex discrimination no longer exists. However, this perception is over‐optimistic. Major sex inequalities persist at senior management level in the salaries and benefits offered to female and male staff and in access to certain favoured occupations and sectors of employment. Questionnaires, interviews and documentary evidence from three Turkish and six British banks and high street financial organizations showed that their claimed commitment to equal opportunities by sex was not matched by their practices. Members of managerial elites (who were almost exclusively male) held firm views about the characteristics of ‘the ideal worker’, which informed organizational ideologies, including human resource policies and practices concerning recruitment and promotion. They also permeated organizational cultures, which affected employees’ working practices and experiences. The outcome of these internal negotiation processes was to differentiate between a favoured group of staff seen as fully committed to the companies’ values, who were promoted and rewarded, and an ‘out’ group, whose members were denied these privileges. This distinction between ‘belonging’ and ‘otherness’ is gendered not only along the traditional lines of class, age, sexual orientation, religion and physical ability, but also along the new dimensions of marriage, networking, safety, mobility and space. Despite local and cross‐cultural differences in the significance of these factors, the cumulative disadvantage suffered by women staff seeking career development in the industry was remarkably similar.     

Preschool Boys with Pervasive Hyperactivity: Early Peer Functioning and Mother–Child Relationship Influences

This study compared the peer functioning of a community sample of preschool boys with pervasive hyperactivity (N=33) and comparison boys (N=34), and examined the extent to which any differences in peer functioning between these groups could be explained by comorbid child conduct problems and parenting factors. The quality of boys’ peer relations was assessed on the basis of teacher and observer ratings of peer‐related behavior at preschool. The quality of parenting and boys’ behavior at home were assessed using the Parental Account of Children's Symptoms Interview, the Parenting Scale, and videotaped mother–son interactions. Boys with hyperactive behavior problems showed higher rates of aggressive, noncompliant, and nonsocial behaviors, and lower rates of prosocial behavior and peer acceptance than boys in the comparison group. These between‐group differences in social functioning remained significant following statistical control for the effects of conduct problems, highlighting the wide range of peer difficulties associated with preschool hyperactivity. Results of further analyses suggest that the quality of early mother–child interactions and the behavioral features of hyperactivity may make unique contributions to the 00development of peer relationship difficulties in preschool children with pervasive hyperactivity.     

Analysis of the reliability of a new scale for housing quality

This article reports the results of a variance components investigation of the reliability of a new scale of measurement of the quality of a dwelling unit. A balanced incomplete block design was utilized. A method for selecting among competing unbiased estimators of the variance components is presented. These components furnish a measure of the stability of the new dwelling quality scale. The validity of this new scale was investigated by comparison with experienced housing inspectors' reports.