Comparison of the Polar Decision Rules for Various Types of Distributions

We focus on the dichotomous choice model, which goes back as far as Condorcet (1785; Essai sur l'application de l'analyse a la probabilité des décisions rendues a la pluralité des voix, Paris). A group of experts is required to select one of two alternatives, of which exactly one is regarded as correct. The alternatives may be related to a wide variety of areas. A decision rule translates the individual opinions of the members into a group decision. A decision rule is optimal if it maximizes the probability of the group to make a correct choice. In this paper we assume the correctness probabilities of the experts to be independent random variables, selected from some given distribution. Moreover, the ranking of the members in the team is (at least partly) known. Thus, one can follow rules based on this ranking. The polar different rules are the expert and the majority rules. The probabilities of the two polar rules being optimal were compared in a series of papers. The main purpose of this paper is to outline the results, providing exact formulas or estimates for these probabilities. We consider a variety of distributions and show that for all of these distributions the asymptotic behaviour of the probabilities of the two polar rules follows the same patterns.     

Monotonicity in Condorcet’s Jury Theorem with dependent voters

Condorcet’s Jury Theorem (CJT) provides a theoretical basis of public choice theory and political science. This paper provides an extension of CJT for random subcommittees consisting of dependent heterogeneous experts. Necessary and sufficient conditions for beneficial augmentation (reduction) of the size of a random subcommittee are provided. These results are applied in several dependency models.     

Social Class and Adolescents' Beliefs about Justice in Different Social Orders

We report on the justice beliefs of 4508 adolescents from 4 security societies in transition to market economies (i.e., Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Russia) and from 2 opportunity societies (Australia and the United States). Using a multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), justice beliefs were examined as a function of type of society, social class, and gender. In the security societies, working-class teens wanted the state and schools to provide a safety net, while middle-class teens preferred that schools promote student autonomy and competition but also reported the most negative school climates of any group. In the opportunity societies, working-class youth believed success was based on individual merit, while middle class youth expressed more doubt about this connection .     

The Optimality of the Expert and Majority Rules Under Exponentially Distributed Competence

We study the uncertain dichotomous choice model. In this model a set of decision makers is required to select one of two alternatives, say support or reject a certain proposal. Applications of this model are relevant to many areas, such as political science, economics, business and management. The purpose of this paper is to estimate and compare the probabilities that different decision rules may be optimal. We consider the expert rule, the majority rule and a few in-between rules. The information on the decisional skills is incomplete, and these skills arise from an exponential distribution. It turns out that the probability that the expert rule is optimal far exceeds the probability that the majority rule is optimal, especially as the number of the decision makers becomes large.     

The Endowment Effect on Academic Chores Trade-Off (ACTO)

The present study aimed to investigate three questions concerning Kahneman’s Endowment Effect. (a) Does the Endowment Effect apply to negotiations on intangible items such as intellectual resources and time invested in academic chores? (b) Does the sequence in which proposals are presented to the negotiators influence the Endowment Effect and, if so, how? (c) Does the Endowment Effect have the same impact in on-going negotiations as in one-shot negotiations? The investigation focused on the trade-off made by students between advanced courses and seminars, which we term as Academic Chores Trade-Off (ACTO). The results indicated the existence of the Endowment Effect in negotiations on the above intangible items (ACTO) but could also be partially interpreted as reflecting the negotiators attempts to improve their positions. The results also supported the existence of a Sequence Effect combined with an intensification of the Endowment Effect. The Endowment Effect in on-going negotiations was not found to be significantly different from that in the one-shot format.     

The Role of the Nonprofit Sector Amid Political Change: Contrasting Approaches to Slovakian Civil Society

This paper focuses on the role, functions, and activities of the nonprofit sector in Slovakia from 1993 to 1998 during a critical time in the country's development, using Salamon's classification of the sector's relationships with government as opposition, partner, or agent. Relying on personal interviews with participants and observers, the paper examines two key political events to illustrate these issues—the debate about the proposed Law on Foundations, and the 1998 Parliamentary elections.     

Monotonicity in Condorcet Jury Theorem

Consider a committee of experts dealing with dichotomous choice problem, where the correctness probabilities are all greater than We prove that, if a random subcommittee of odd size m is selected randomly, and entrusted to make a decision by majority vote, its probability of deciding correctly increases with m. This includes a result of Ben-Yashar and Paroush (2000), who proved that a random subcommittee of size m3 is preferable to a random single expert.Research supported in part by the Israel Science Foundation (Grant\#186/01)     

“I Swear I Will Never Betray You”: Factors Reported by Spouses as Helping Them Resist Extramarital Sex in Relation to Gender,Marriage Length,and Religiosity

Studies suggest that married people frequently engage in intimate relationships with people other than their spouses, and the literature has extensively examined motives for doing so. However, less is known about what factors prevent spouses from engaging in extramarital sex. While investment theory, interdependence theory, and moral theories offer insights into this question, they have not been subject to much empirical research. We examine these theories in relation to several characteristics of individuals and couples: gender, length of the marriage, and religiosity. In two studies, 423 participants completed a questionnaire on the perceived importance of 29 reasons to resist the temptation for extramarital sex. Participants also reported the likelihood that they would engage in extramarital sex if the opportunity presented itself. Results show that being female, more religious, and married for less time were associated with greater expectations of refraining from extramarital sex when presented with a hypothetical scenario. Multiple hierarchical regression showed that among factors relevant to conscious decision making, moral standards and fundamental anxieties (fear of remaining alone) predict expectations of refraining from extramarital sex better than concerns about effects on the children or the other participant.     

Postcommunist Societies in Times of Transition: Perceptions of Change Among Adolescents in Central and Eastern Europe

This article examines adolescents' perceptions of the economic changes and the justice of the new "social contract" in Eastern/Central Europe. Focusing on three countries, Hungary, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic, it explores the social, political, and economic environments in which adolescents came of age in 1990. Surveys conducted among high school students in each country during 1995 tapped their perceptions of the economy, the local community, and their personal beliefs about the efficacy of individual initiative and hard work. Responses differed significantly based on age, gender, social class, value orientation, and country. Older adolescents and girls were more likely to observe that economic disparities were growing in their country and to be cynical about the value of hard work. Those with socialist values also discounted the value of recent changes. Adolescents in the Czech Republic were the least cynical about economic changes, whereas those in Bulgaria were the most cynical, with Hungarian youth the least optimistic about the future.