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We developed a stochastic model for quantitative risk assessment for the Schistosoma mansoni (SM) parasite, which causes an endemic disease of public concern. The model provides answers in a useful format for public health decisions, uses data and expert opinion, and can be applied to any landscape where the snail Biomphalaria glabrata is the main intermediate host (South and Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa). It incorporates several realistic and case‐specific features: stage‐structured parasite populations, periodic praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment for humans, density dependence, extreme events (prolonged rainfall), site‐specific sanitation quality, environmental stochasticity, monthly rainfall variation, uncertainty in parameters, and spatial dynamics. We parameterize the model through a real‐world application in the district of Porto de Galinhas (PG), one of the main touristic destinations in Brazil, where previous studies identified four parasite populations within the metapopulation. The results provide a good approximation of the dynamics of the system and are in agreement with our field observations, i.e., the lack of basic infrastructure (sanitation level and health programs) makes PG a suitable habitat for the persistence and growth of a parasite metapopulation. We quantify the risk of SM metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction and the time to metapopulation explosion and quasi‐extinction. We evaluate the sensitivity of the results under varying scenarios of future periodic PZQ treatment (based on the Brazilian Ministry of Health's plan) and sanitation quality. We conclude that the plan might be useful to slow SM metapopulation growth but not to control it. Additional investments in better sanitation are necessary.  相似文献   
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ABSTRACT

The Washington State Legislature created the Parenting Sentencing Alternative in 2010, authorizing a substitute to total confinement for parents of minor children. The Alternative is designed to strengthen family bonds and improve parenting skills to encourage successful reintegration. An overview of the Alternative’s history, design, and implementation is presented, followed by preliminary results from an impact evaluation. A case study of a successful participant is presented, and implications for the findings are discussed.  相似文献   
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Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) is considered the last preferred solution to an Occupational Safety Health (OSH) system. Brazilian OSH legislation assumes and requires PPE usage to neutralize the possibility of pesticide contamination. This study examines the inadequacy of the PPE used in a tomato crop, particularly from the standpoint of thermal comfort. This study made observations regarding heart rate and body temperature in a controlled environment using a treadmill (with and without PPE) of 12 volunteers; and during the process of rural labor (at rest and in normal work routine) of 2 actual rural workers. Comparing the results of the treadmill test (with and without PPE) which tried to reproduce the same level of effort and environmental conditions of the actual rural work, this study demonstrated that PPE makes thermoregulation harder and tympanic temperature reaches higher values with the same level of effort. Moreover, body temperature increases quickly: with PPE it took 15 minutes to raise 1°C in body temperature, compared to 40 minutes without PPE. The results of this study indicated that the use inadequate PPE might pose thermoregulation risk to rural workers.  相似文献   
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Those involved in sustainability debates on developmental pathways concur in the synergistic potential of integrating traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and Western scientific approaches. Transhumant pastoralism is a livelihood strategy adapted to spatiotemporal environmental variability in many mountainous and arid regions worldwide. This form of livelihood is based on a mobile logic that is increasingly threatened by novel lifestyles promoted from a Western mind-set and by climate change. The aim of this article is to identify and characterize the different perspectives of environmental and social issues in a pastoral region and their association with labor collaboration among extension agents, framed in an institutional action. We tackled the inquiry about viewpoints with Q methodology and related it to regional problems, alternative solutions, and future development pathways for transhumant pastoralism and landscape management in northwest Patagonia. We identified six perspectives and characterized them with their topological position in the social network. Mediating positions registered the highest network centrality of labor collaborations among agents, whereas more dominant perspectives emphasizing TEK or scientific knowledge registered intermediate centrality. There was consensus on the need for sustainable developmental options, but the emphasis on combining knowledge still needs convergent solutions.  相似文献   
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VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - We examine whether third-party endorsement and institutional trust can mitigate the potential negative effects of higher...  相似文献   
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Amazonia is undergoing rapid urbanisation, but nothing has been published on the structure and function of urban Amazonian avifaunas. Here we present the results of a year-long survey of the avifauna of an Amazonian city, exploring temporal variation in its taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity. We found urban bird communities to be taxonomically depauperate and dominated by a small subset of common species typical of second growth and river-edge habitats. Broad patterns of phylogenetic community similarity typically resembled those found in other studies on urban Neotropical bird assemblages, with insectivores the dominant guild. There was significant temporal variation in taxonomic and phylogenetic structure owing to the seasonal arrival and departure of a regionally over-represented minority of migratory species. Although the urban avian assemblage is of limited regional conservation value, it may still offer significant biodiversity services and represent one of few points of contact for local people with biodiversity.  相似文献   
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A new optimization algorithm is presented to solve the stratification problem. Assuming the number L of strata and the total sample size n are fixed, we obtain strata boundaries by using an objective function associated with the variance. In this problem, strata boundaries must be determined so that the elements in each stratum are more homogeneous among themselves. To produce more homogeneous strata, this paper proposes a new algorithm that uses the Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure (GRASP) methodology. Computational results are presented for a set of problems, with the application of the new algorithm and some algorithms from literature.  相似文献   
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