Economic Influences on Presidential Popularity

Gallup data indicating presidential popularity from 1950 to1974 are analyzed in a distributed lag model which tests theimportance of key economic influences. Results indicate thatinflation and military expenditures are statistically significantand politically important influences on presidential popularity.The success of this model in revealing hitherto undetected economicinfluence calls into question the nonfindings of previous simplelinear analyses and suggests the need for more sophisticatedmodels which provide, through the use of time lags and cumulativeimpacts, a more complex pattern of economic influence on presidentialpopularity.