Pointing to Visible and Invisible Targets

We investigated how the visibility of targets influenced the type of point used to provide directions. In Study 1, we asked 605 passersby in three localities for directions to well-known local landmarks. When that landmark was in plain view behind the requester, most respondents pointed with their index fingers, and few respondents pointed more than once. In contrast, when the landmark was not in view, respondents pointed initially with their index fingers, but often elaborated with a whole-hand point. In Study 2, we covertly filmed the responses from 157 passersby we approached for directions, capturing both verbal and gestural responses. As in Study 1, few respondents produced more than one gesture when the target was in plain view and initial points were most likely to be index finger points. Thus, in a Western geographical context in which pointing with the index finger is the dominant form of pointing, a slight change in circumstances elicited a preference for pointing with the whole hand when it was the second or third manual gesture in a sequence.     

Special Children,Integration and Moral Education

SUMMARY: This paper explores issues concerning the integration of children with disabilities into mainstream schools and draws out the implications of the discussions for moral education. Social and personal theories of disability are reconciled to provide a basis for a moral education which bridges ‘alternative’ moral traditions. I argue that successful integration requires a moral education for teachers and pupils which encourages the development of both a ‘caring justice’ and a ‘judicious care’.     

Frequency of Selecting Noise Variables in Subset Regression Analysis: A Simulation Study

This article presents the results of a simulation study of variable selection in a multiple regression context that evaluates the frequency of selecting noise variables and the bias of the adjusted R ² of the selected variables when some of the candidate variables are authentic. It is demonstrated that for most samples a large percentage of the selected variables is noise, particularly when the number of candidate variables is large relative to the number of observations. The adjusted R ² of the selected variables is highly inflated.     

Predictability measures for ridge regression models

Methods for flagging new points that are not similar to the original data used for developing a ridge regression equation are discussed. Using the regression equation for predictions should be avoided for these dissimilar points. An example quantifies the sample space limitations for using biased prediction when multicollinearity is present.     

Considerations for Effective Simulation Study Analysis

This article discusses estimation of several percentiles simultaneously, develops a simple test to compare the sizes of two test statistics, and considers the use of logit models to adjust power curves to have the same null hypothesis level.     

Statistical models for disaggregation and reaggregation of natural gas consumption data

In this paper, we present a unified framework for natural gas consumption modeling and forecasting. This consists of models of GAM class and their nonlinear extension, tailored for easy estimation, aggregation and treatment of the delayed relationship between temperature and consumption. Since the consumption data for households and small commercial customers are routinely available in many countries only as long-term sum meter readings, their disaggregation and possibly reaggregation to different time intervals is necessary for a variety of purposes. We show some examples of specific models based on the presented framework and then we demonstrate their use in practice, especially for the disaggregation and reaggregation tasks.     

The Temporal Stability and Predictive Ability of the Gambling Outcome Expectancies Scale (GOES): A Prospective Study

Previous research using the Gambling Outcome Expectancies Scale (GOES; Flack and Morris in J Gambl Stud, 2015. doi: 10.1007/s10899-014-9484-z) revealed the instrument has excellent psychometric properties and differentially predicts gambling frequency and problem gambling scores. However, like the existing gambling motivation scales, the GOES psychometric properties and predictive utility have not been tested outside of cross sectional studies. The current study used a prospective survey design to redress this issue. Eight hundred and ninety-three participants, drawn from the general community, completed the second wave of the gambling survey. Temporal invariance testing revealed the GOES was reliable. Furthermore, the ability of the GOES to predict gambling behaviour using baseline and concurrent measures of gambling outcome expectancies was demonstrated. Specifically, consistent with the Wave 1 results, the gambling outcome expectancies that reflect diverse reasons for gambling (e.g., social, escape, and money) preferentially predicted gambling frequency whereas the narrower range of emotion focused reasons (e.g., excitement, escape, and ego enhancement) predicted gambling problems. Considered in light of the Wave 1 findings, these results underscore the need for gambling harm minimisation initiatives to take into account the emotion-oriented reasons for gambling.     

Testing hypotheses when there could be an initial effect

In many treatment-versus-control experiments, the observed random variables can be written as the product of a Bernoulli and a continuous random variable. The treatment can affect the distribution of the observations in two ways.

1. the probability that the observation is 0 could be altered.

2. the distribution of the nonzero observations could be changed.

We may also want to measure the combined effect of the treatment.

3. the expected value of control and treated units may differ.

A method is presented for testing for the presence of the combined effect when the general form of the distribution function of the continuous observations is known. For the case when this distribution function is from the family of gamma distributions, a previously proposed test criterion for the combined effect has poor power properties. In this paper, we discuss a test criterion that has improved power properties.     

Confidence intervals for the interrater agreement measure kappa

The asympotic normal approximation to the distribution of the estimated measure [kcirc] for evaluating agreement between two raters has been shown to perform poorly for small sample sizes when the true kappa is nonzero. This paper examines the use of skewness corrections and transformations of [kcirc] on the attained confidence levels. Small sample simulations demonstrate the improvement in the agreement between the desired and actual levels of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests that incorporate these corrections.