Special Children,Integration and Moral Education

SUMMARY: This paper explores issues concerning the integration of children with disabilities into mainstream schools and draws out the implications of the discussions for moral education. Social and personal theories of disability are reconciled to provide a basis for a moral education which bridges ‘alternative’ moral traditions. I argue that successful integration requires a moral education for teachers and pupils which encourages the development of both a ‘caring justice’ and a ‘judicious care’.     

DO HOUSE PRICES DRIVE CONSUMPTION GROWTH? THE COINCIDENT CYCLES OF HOUSE PRICES AND CONSUMPTION IN THE UK

This paper uses a realistic structural lifecycle model of consumption and housing decisions to understand how data might distinguish different mechanisms that explain the correlation between house prices and consumption. The model includes price and earnings shocks estimated from data (the latter including aggregate and idiosyncratic components), and incorporates realistic features of the UK mortgage market. We simulate the model using more than 30 years of realized shocks and under counterfactual scenarios. Our results confirm the intuition of earlier studies: house price shocks should have a larger effect on the consumption of older households and earnings shocks on young households.     

Statistical models for disaggregation and reaggregation of natural gas consumption data

In this paper, we present a unified framework for natural gas consumption modeling and forecasting. This consists of models of GAM class and their nonlinear extension, tailored for easy estimation, aggregation and treatment of the delayed relationship between temperature and consumption. Since the consumption data for households and small commercial customers are routinely available in many countries only as long-term sum meter readings, their disaggregation and possibly reaggregation to different time intervals is necessary for a variety of purposes. We show some examples of specific models based on the presented framework and then we demonstrate their use in practice, especially for the disaggregation and reaggregation tasks.     

The Temporal Stability and Predictive Ability of the Gambling Outcome Expectancies Scale (GOES): A Prospective Study

Previous research using the Gambling Outcome Expectancies Scale (GOES; Flack and Morris in J Gambl Stud, 2015. doi: 10.1007/s10899-014-9484-z) revealed the instrument has excellent psychometric properties and differentially predicts gambling frequency and problem gambling scores. However, like the existing gambling motivation scales, the GOES psychometric properties and predictive utility have not been tested outside of cross sectional studies. The current study used a prospective survey design to redress this issue. Eight hundred and ninety-three participants, drawn from the general community, completed the second wave of the gambling survey. Temporal invariance testing revealed the GOES was reliable. Furthermore, the ability of the GOES to predict gambling behaviour using baseline and concurrent measures of gambling outcome expectancies was demonstrated. Specifically, consistent with the Wave 1 results, the gambling outcome expectancies that reflect diverse reasons for gambling (e.g., social, escape, and money) preferentially predicted gambling frequency whereas the narrower range of emotion focused reasons (e.g., excitement, escape, and ego enhancement) predicted gambling problems. Considered in light of the Wave 1 findings, these results underscore the need for gambling harm minimisation initiatives to take into account the emotion-oriented reasons for gambling.     

Knowledge-Based Risk Assessment Under Uncertainty for Species Invasion

Management of invasive species depends on developing prevention and control strategies through comprehensive risk assessment frameworks that need a thorough analysis of exposure to invasive species. However, accurate exposure analysis of invasive species can be a daunting task because of the inherent uncertainty in invasion processes. Risk assessment of invasive species under uncertainty requires potential integration of expert judgment with empirical information, which often can be incomplete, imprecise, and fragmentary. The representation of knowledge in classical risk models depends on the formulation of a precise probabilistic value or well-defined joint distribution of unknown parameters. However, expert knowledge and judgments are often represented in value-laden terms or preference-ordered criteria. We offer a novel approach to risk assessment by using a dominance-based rough set approach to account for preference order in the domains of attributes in the set of risk classes. The model is illustrated with an example showing how a knowledge-centric risk model can be integrated with the dominance-based principle of rough set to derive minimal covering "if ... , then...," decision rules to reason over a set of possible invasion scenarios. The inconsistency and ambiguity in the data set is modeled using the rough set concept of boundary region adjoining lower and upper approximation of risk classes. Finally, we present an extension of rough set to evidence a theoretic interpretation of risk measures of invasive species in a spatial context. In this approach, the multispecies interactions in an invasion risk are approximated with imprecise probability measures through a combination of spatial neighborhood information of risk estimation in terms of belief and plausibility.     

Gambling motivation: comparisons across gender and preferred activity

People gamble for emotional, social and monetary reasons. However, it remains unclear whether the relationships between these distinct aspects of gambling motivation and gambling behaviour hold across gender and types of gambling. Thus, the current study compared gambling motivation across different subgroups while taking into account problem gambling severity. A total of 4945 adults were recruited as part of the Northern Territory (Australia) population gambling survey. Of the full sample, 1207 participants (52% female) completed the Gambling Outcomes Expectancies Scale to assess gambling motivation. This subsample comprised those who scored one or more on the PGSI (n = 407) and a random sample of those who gambled at least once a year with a PGSI of zero (n = 800). The findings revealed excitement, escape and monetary expectancies increased in concert with gambling risk for both men and women, although only escape differentiated the low-risk and at-risk gamblers when other expectancies were controlled. In relation to differences across types of gambling, horse races/sports bettors rated excitement but not escape more favourably than lottery players. These findings suggest problem gambling severity should be considered when examining motivation difference by gender and that gambling motivation depends, in part, on preferred activity.     

The temporal relationship between gambling related beliefs and gambling behaviour: a prospective study using the theory of planned behaviour

The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) has been successfully employed to investigate the role of gambling-related beliefs in the maintenance of gambling behaviour. However, there is a lack of research that examines the temporal relationships between the TPB predictor variables and gambling behaviour. Thus, the current study examines the utility of expectancies, normative beliefs, perceived behaviour control and gambling intentions in predicting gambling frequency, as assessed 12 months later. In addition, these gambling-related beliefs were reassessed at the 12-month follow-up survey to examine their stability and relationships with gambling behaviour. A total of 805 Australian adults, recruited via an online research panel, completed the baseline and follow-up online survey. Consistent with expectations, gambling-related beliefs explained gambling intentions and intentions predicted Wave 2 gambling frequency, after controlling Wave 1 gambling frequency. In relation to the stability of gambling-related beliefs, the Wave 2 measures explained additional variance in the Wave 2 gambling behaviour, although the type of beliefs associated with Wave 2 gambling frequency and problem gambling severity differed. These findings provide support for the notion that the perceived benefits of gambling and beliefs in skill are important areas to target in preventative and problem gambling initiatives.