Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

Internal Migration in Spain: Dealing with Multilateral Resistance and Nonlinearites

This article investigates the determinants of internal mobility of both foreigners and natives across Spanish provinces over the decade 2004‐14. Building on an extended gravity model, our econometric strategy controls for multilateral resistance to migration by including different fixed effects structures. Additionally, the article allows for some nonlinearities in the key economic determinants of migration, wages and unemployment. The main finding is that the impact of economic factors on internal migration is higher for foreigners than for natives; furthermore, the effect of these factors on internal migration is clearly nonlinear for the group of natives, while this only happens for foreigners when dyadic fixed effects of origin‐destination are considered. Finally, the article shows that the nature of the amenities with the greatest impact on internal movements differs between the two groups: foreigners look for social services and cultural amenities, whereas natives are more attracted by good climate conditions.     

Non parametric estimation of the structural expectation of a stochastic increasing function

This article introduces a non parametric warping model for functional data. When the outcome of an experiment is a sample of curves, data can be seen as realizations of a stochastic process, which takes into account the variations between the different observed curves. The aim of this work is to define a mean pattern which represents the main behaviour of the set of all the realizations. So, we define the structural expectation of the underlying stochastic function. Then, we provide empirical estimators of this structural expectation and of each individual warping function. Consistency and asymptotic normality for such estimators are proved.     

Baghdadi Jews in Hong Kong: converting cultural,social and economic capital among three transregional networks

This article is an analysis of the attempts of Baghdadi Jewish traders in Hong Kong in the second half of the nineteenth century to construct and convert cultural, social and economic capital within and between the transregional networks of the Baghdadi diaspora, the Jewish diaspora and the British colonial elite. The analysis of the multiple and multi‐directional intersections between the cultural, social and economic characteristics of the three networks shows that Baghdadi social capital accounted for significant ruptures and disjunctures between the increasing cosmopolitanization, deterritorialization and hybridization of the Baghdadi traders' cultural identities and the definition of Baghdadi cultural capital. An understanding of the role of Baghdadi social capital in accounting for the construction and convertibility of cultural, social and economic capital among these three transregional networks helps to explain the reproduction of social inequalities under increasing conditions of globalization, that is, under conditions that potentially augmented the number of sources defining cultural capital.     

EU regional convergence and policy: Does the concept of region matter?

Regional convergence has become a heated topic in the last decades. To address it, most papers define regions on the base of normative/administrative criteria, although some consider that it could lead to misleading conclusions. In view of that, this article explores, over the period 1995–2006, the per capita income distribution of two sets of European regions: administrative (NUTS2) and functional (Metropolitan) regions. From a methodological point of view, a distribution dynamics approach – examining the external shape and movements within these distributions – is applied to analyse the issue of convergence. The study does reveal the presence of a process of convergence across both types of regions; however, this seems to be more rapid with Metropolitan than NUTS2 regions, which prompt us to proposing some relative major changes in the EU regional policy.     

Using administrative data to reward agency performance: the case of the federal adoption incentive program

This article explores the history of the federal Adoption Incentive Program, the first federal child welfare outcome-based incentive program to rely solely on administrative data, and discusses it within the context of other prior and ongoing federal child welfare incentive programs. Various data-related issues are also examined, including the use of data to project program utilization and costs, set baselines for the number of adoptions, and award funds. Challenges in the legislatively required use of AFCARS data for determining the amount of incentive funds awarded and the impact of the program on AFCARS reporting are also discussed. The article concludes with a look at the impact of the Adoption Incentive Program on adoption and predictions for the future.     

Road trafficking description and short term travel time forecasting,with a classification method

The purpose of this work is, on the one hand, to study how to forecast road trafficking on highway networks and, on the other hand, to describe future traffic events. Here, road trafficking is measured by vehicle velocities. The authors propose two methodologies. The first is based on an empirical classification method, and the second on a probability mixture model. They use an SAEM‐type algorithm (a stochastic approximation of the EM algorithm) to select the densities of the mixture model. Then, they test the validity of their methodologies by forecasting short term travel times.