Tests for time series of counts based on the probability-generating function

We propose testing procedures for the hypothesis that a given set of discrete observations may be formulated as a particular time series of counts with a specific conditional law. The new test statistics incorporate the empirical probability-generating function computed from the observations. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is included as well as real-data examples.     

困境中的执著与前行——转型时期俄罗斯哲学研究现状综述

解体之后的哲学在俄罗斯遭到了前所未有的冷落,它既面临着俄罗斯是否还需要哲学的问题,又面临着被终结的可能,但是俄罗斯哲学以自己一贯的优秀品质在低靡的社会现实中艰难地跋涉,关注着一些积极而有意义的同社会生活密切相关的问题。暂时摆脱意识形态束缚的俄罗斯哲学,更加清醒理智地期待哲学的美好未来。     

Demographic Shifts in the Czech Republic after 1989: A Second Demographic Transition View

A dramatic change in fertility,family formation and living arrangements tookplace in the Czech Republic over the 1990s. Theestablishment of democracy, profound socialtransformation and transition to the marketeconomy affected the values and demographicbehaviour of the young Czech generation. Thispaper examines whether these demographic shiftscan be interpreted within the framework of thesecond demographic transition. The theoreticalpart discusses the idea of the transition,outlining three distinctive conceptualisations.Two of them – the view of the transition as aprogression of characteristic interrelateddemographic changes and a broader viewstressing the importance of underlyingideational factors – fit the Czech situationvery well. A comparison with the Netherlandsreveals that the onset of the transition in theCzech Republic may be clearly located in thefirst half of the 1990s, lagging two decadesbehind the Netherlands.     

俄罗斯证券市场:发展特点与发展战略

随着俄罗斯金融体制改革的深入,俄证券市场得到了较为迅速的发展。特别是20世纪90年代中期以来,加速发展的世界有价证券市场的全球化进程,对俄罗斯产生了较大的影响。俄罗斯为迎接经济全球化挑战并融入该进程,正在着手制定全面而综合的证券市场发展战略。本文对俄罗斯证券市场的发展特点与发展战略进行了分析和评价。     

学校本位教学视导模式的实证研究——以兰州市E中学为例

本研究目的在于通过对兰州市E中学施行的学校本位教学视导模式的深入观察,全方位了解学校本位教学视导模式的具体运作方式。以兰州市一所薄弱学校为研究场域,通过课堂观察的方式,全面了解学校为提高办学质量所开展的“学案分组教学法”,及进行学校本位化视导模式的具体运作状态。在兰州市E中学开展学校本位教学视导模式的过程中,学校校长与某大学教育学院课程与教学领域的教授专家参与视导过程。主要采取校长主导,专家参与的合作视导方式,对兰州市E中学初中二年级屈老师数学课进行为期一周的教学观察与记录。实施以学校为本位的合作视导方式,目的在于发现兰州市E中学进行“学案分组教学法”中的具体教学问题,通过大学与中学的合作,开展学校本位视导模式,有效促进教师的专业发展与增强教学有效性,提高学校办学质量。     

Multilevel maximum likelihood estimation with application to covariance matrices

The asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimate is proved to decrease when the maximization is restricted to a subspace that contains the true parameter value. Maximum likelihood estimation allows a systematic fitting of covariance models to the sample, which is important in data assimilation. The hierarchical maximum likelihood approach is applied to the spectral diagonal covariance model with different parameterizations of eigenvalue decay, and to the sparse inverse covariance model with specified parameter values on different sets of nonzero entries. It is shown computationally that using smaller sets of parameters can decrease the sampling noise in high dimension substantially.     

The empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior under Stein's loss function

For the hierarchical Poisson and gamma model, we calculate the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter of the Poisson distribution under Stein's loss function which penalizes gross overestimation and gross underestimation equally and the corresponding Posterior Expected Stein's Loss (PESL). We also obtain the Bayes posterior estimator of the parameter under the squared error loss and the corresponding PESL. Moreover, we obtain the empirical Bayes estimators of the parameter of the Poisson distribution with a conjugate gamma prior by two methods. In numerical simulations, we have illustrated: The two inequalities of the Bayes posterior estimators and the PESLs; the moment estimators and the Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLEs) are consistent estimators of the hyperparameters; the goodness-of-fit of the model to the simulated data. The numerical results indicate that the MLEs are better than the moment estimators when estimating the hyperparameters. Finally, we exploit the attendance data on 314 high school juniors from two urban high schools to illustrate our theoretical studies.     

中国台湾中小学教师培训制度演进的特点及其启示

业发展权；努力促进教师培训的法制化建设；关注教师培训的科学化建设；加强教师培训的检测与评估；建立全员、常教师专业发展对教师培训越来越依存，教师培训制度的科学化与法制化已成为教师专业发展的根本保障。本文以中国台湾地区所谓《师范教育法》、《师资培育法》以及《师资培育白皮书》等规定为基准，从推动教师培训制度演进的核心价值理念、法制化保障机制、财政支持机制、运行机制等因素出发，归纳总结台湾中小学教师培训制度演进的社会背景及发展特征，探讨台湾中小学教师培训制度演进过程的基本特点，并对当前大陆教师培训制度建设有如下启示：教师培训应基于教师专态、长效培训体制。