WOMEN AND TARIFFS: TESTING THE GENDER GAP HYPOTHESIS IN A DOWNS-MAYER POLITICAL-ECONOMY MODEL

This paper tests a variant of the standard endogenous tariff model under direct democracy (the Downs-Mayer model) with a gender gap. Specifically, we argue that, if there is a division of economic activity between men and women, and political preferences are affected by one's relationship to the economy, there will be a gender gap in political activity. We test this hypothesis with respect to the effect of political enfranchisement of women on the level of the U.S. tariff. The empirical results strongly support the hypothesis (JEL F4, D7, N4)     

Classifying Undecided Voters in Pre-Election Polls

The treatment of "don't know", "no opinion," or other nsonsubstantiveresponses is a problem in many consumer research surveys. Thispaper looks at the problem in the context of 1980 presidentialelection opinion polls. During the campaign, a relatively largeproportion of those interviewed said that they were undecidedas to whom they planned to vote for. Discriminant analysis isused to allocate undecided voters to candidates. The methodis validated by a postelection follow-up survey.     

IDEOLOGY AND LEGISLATOR SHIRKING

We argue that legislator shirking (voting on the basis of personal ideology rather than the interests of one's constituents) can exist, but its appearance should conform to the law of demand. We test and confirm this theory using votes on defense expenditure bills in the U.S. Senate in 1982. We assume the cost of shirking is relatively higher on narrowly focused bills on specific weapons systems with well-defined beneficiaries, and relatively lower on general defense expenditure bills with uncertain final distribution of funds. We find greater influence for senators' ideology in general versus specific bills.     

Voting in Winnipeg during the Depression*

Ce texte examine les bases sociales de l'appui à un parti pendant la Grande Crise à Winnipeg. Les résultats du recensement et des élections ont été correlés, et des analyses de régression multiple et de régression ‘ridge’ ont servi à mesurer l'ampleur relative des variables de classe et d'ethnologie. En outre, une analyse corroborative a été faite pour ce qui a trait aux transferts de bulletins de vote, procédure permise sous le règlement de représentation proportionnelle du système électoral à Winnipeg. Nous raccordons les résultats obtenus, tout en la critiquant, à la théorie dominante du comportement électoral canadien, selon laquelle le vote de classe est sans importance. Nous élaborons aussi sur l'importance du lieu de naissance comme élément d'ethnologie. Nous relions nos résultats à des études parallèles sur le comportement éléctoral à Winnipeg au cours des années 40 et 50. En conclusion, nous démontrons que l'élément d'adhésion de longue durée à un parti a plus d'influence sur le vote qu'un changement de situation ou de circonstances dans une élection quelconque. This paper analyzes the social bases of party support in Winnipeg during the Depression. Census data are correlated with poll data and multiple regression and ridge regression analyses are employed to measure the relative weight of class and ethnic variables. In addition, a corroborating analysis is offered of ballot transfers which was permitted by Winnipeg's voting system of proportional representation. We relate our findings to and criticize the dominant theory of Canadian voting behaviour which asserts that class voting is unimportant. We also elaborate on the importance of birthplace as a component of ethnicity. We relate our findings to parallel studies of voting in Winnipeg in the 1940s and 1950s. In conclusion, we argue that voting is more influenced by the long-term bases of party support than by the changing context and circumstances of any given election.     

STRICT PRODUCT LIABILITY AND SAFETY: EVIDENCE FROM THE GENERAL AVIATION MARKET

This paper examines the impact of a strict product liability standard on the accident rate in the general aviation (GA) industry. Liability expenses increased by 775% between 1976 and 1986, reducing the sales of new GA aircraft by 90% and increasing the age of the GA fleet. Using both aggregate and model‐specific data, our results indicate that the increase in the age of the GA fleet increased the accident rate by 25%–35% during 1981–2000. In addition, the higher price of GA aircraft boosted sales of homebuilt planes, which have higher accident and fatality rates than GA aircraft. (JEL K13, L62, L15)