DO RESPONDENTS REALLY "MARK ALL THAT APPLY" ON SELF-ADMINISTERED QUESTIONS?

An experiment was conducted to assess the effect of using "markall that apply" question instructions on survey reporting aspart of the field test for the Second Follow-up of the NationalEducation Longitudinal Study of 1988 Eighth Graders (NELS:88).Mark-all-that-apply instructions were compared with instructionsasking respondents to indicate "yes" or "no" to each responseoption on responses to three items dispersed throughout thequestionnaire and consisting of different topics and numbersof response options. For the three items, significantly fewerresponse options were selected with the mark-all-that-applyinstructions than with the yes/no instructions, but becauseexternal validity criteria were not available, overreportingto the yes/no instructions cannot be ruled out. Instructiondependentprimacy effects, predicted under the hypothesis that respondentswould engage in more superficial processing when given the mark-all-that-applyinstructions, were not found.     

PREDICTING INFLATION: DOES THE QUANTITY THEORY HELP?

Various inflation forecasting models are compared for the period 1979–2003 using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. Our findings are (1) M2 has marginal predictive content for inflation; (2) it is necessary to allow for the possibility that money, prices, and output are cointegrated; and (3) cointegration vector parameter estimation error is important when making out-of-sample forecasts. Consistent with previous work, we find a structural break in the early 1990s, but the break was easily detected and would not have affected out-of-sample inflation forecasts. Two Monte Carlo experiments that lend credence to our findings are also reported on.(JEL E31 , C32 )     

New Books

Careers in Computer Programming, by Leo Barnett and Lou Ellen Davis Pupil Personnel Services: Selected Readings, edited by Glenn A. Saltzman and Herman J. Peters Home Economics Related Occupations, by Penelope E. Kupsinel The Professional in the Organization, by Mark Abrahamson Your First Year at College, by Joseph E. McCabe Careers in Hotels and Restaurants, by Gerard W. Lattin Guidance Services, Third Edition, by Anthony Humphreys, Arthur Trazler, and Robert North New Light on Juvenile Delinquency, edited by Ronald Steel     

New Books

Your Career in the Aerospace Industry by Waldo T. Boyd. The School and the Economic System by Charles S. Benson. Your Career in Transportation by Robert A. Liston. Prep School Guide for Jewish Youth, 1966 edition, prepared by Sol Swerdloff and William Mead. Engineer, by S. C. Hollister. Identity (Book II, Being and Becoming Group Guidance Series, Brother Marion F. Belka, editor) by Sister Marion Hosinski, Sister Mary Thomas Murphy, Norbert Riegert, and Reverend Joseph H. Voor. Testing in our Schools by Louis J. Karmel. Guidance: An Orientation for the Undergraduate by Robert E. Glennen. Techniques of Guidance: An Aproach to Pupil Analysis by Robert L. Gibson and Robert E. Higgins.     

New Books

Building for Tomorrow, by B. G. Panley. Boston: Allyn and Bacon, Incorporated, 1966. Individual Differences, by Anne Anastasi. New York: John Wiley & Sons The Disadvantaged and Potential Dropout by John Gowan and George D. Demos. Work and the Nature of Man, by Frederick Herzberg. You and Your Child's Career: A Guidance Handbook for Parents, Teachers, and Counselors, by Daniel Sinick. Counseling and Psychotherapy: Classics on Theories and Issues, edited by Ben N. Opportunities in Travel Careers, by Don Short; Opportunities in Music Careers, by Sigmund Spaeth; Opportunities in Traffic Engineering, by Carlton C. Robinson. Encounter (Book I, Being and Becoming Group Guidance Series, Brother Marion F. Belka, editor), by Sister Marion Hasinski, Sister Mary Thomas Murphy, Norbert Riegert, and Reverend Joseph H. Voor. Revolution in Counseling: Implications of Behavioral Science, edited by John D. Krumboltz.     

New Books

Exciting Careers for Home Economists, by Lila Spencer. Planning and Paying Your Way to College, by Clodus R. Smith. Careers in Psychiatry prepared under the auspices of the National Commission on Mental Health Manpower. Baron's Guide to Law Schools, by Elliott Epstein, Jerome Shostak, and Lawrence Troy. Special Education Programs Within the United States, edited by Morris Val Jones. Emerging Careers by Warren D. Gribbons and Paul R. Lohnes. Edited by Donald E. Super. Applying for a Job: A Self-Study Guide for Students, by Patricia Roth, Ralph E. Mason, and Floyd J. Phipps. Guiding the Future College Student, by Jean Reiss and Mildred G. Fox. Rehabilitation Research, by George N. Wright and Ann B. Trotter. Counseling the Disadvantaged Youth, edited by William E. Amos and Jean D. Grambs. The Vocational Counseling of Adults and Young Adults, by E. C. Thoroman. Opportunities in Advertising Careers, by George T. Clarke, Opportunities in Physical Therapy, by Bernice Krunhansl, Opportunities in Psychology Careers, by Donald E. Super, Opportunities in Sales Careers, by Kenneth B. Haas. Canadian Guidance Series, Toronto, Ontario: Crest Publishing Company, Ltd., distributed by Guidance Centre, The College of Education, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario.     

Weighted Likelihood for Semiparametric Models and Two-phase Stratified Samples, with Application to Cox Regression

Abstract.  We consider semiparametric models for which solution of Horvitz–Thompson or inverse probability weighted (IPW) likelihood equations with two-phase stratified samples leads to consistent and asymptotically Gaussian estimators of both Euclidean and non-parametric parameters. For Bernoulli (independent and identically distributed) sampling, standard theory shows that the Euclidean parameter estimator is asymptotically linear in the IPW influence function. By proving weak convergence of the IPW empirical process, and borrowing results on weighted bootstrap empirical processes, we derive a parallel asymptotic expansion for finite population stratified sampling. Several of our key results have been derived already for Cox regression with stratified case–cohort and more general survey designs. This paper is intended to help interpret this previous work and to pave the way towards a general Horvitz–Thompson approach to semiparametric inference with data from complex probability samples.     

TECHNOLOGY, CAPITAL SPENDING, AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

Capacity utilization is a closely watched macroeconomic indicator because rising utilization may signal rising inflationary pressures. However, recent technological changes have increased the flexibility of relationships between inputs and outputs, potentially eroding the predictive value of the utilization rate. This paper examines relationships between technology, capital spending, and capacity utilization. After establishing conceptually that the effect of recent technological changes on capacity utilization is ambiguous, we investigate the effect empirically using panel data on 111 manufacturing industries. Our results suggest that, for the average industry, the technological change of the 1974–2000 period lowered capacity utilization by 0.2–2.3 percentage points. ( JEL D24, E22, E31)     

Vague Quantifiers

The responses to many survey questions are often made in termsof vague quantifiers such as "very," "pretty," or "not too."We know little about the characteristics of such quantifyingterms. This article reviews several theoretical approaches tothe problem of quantifying meaning based on studies from experimentalpsychology. It also reports data from a pilot study that triesto make more precise quantitative estimates for three commonvague quantifiers.