Bayesian analysis of discrete time warranty data

Summary.  The analysis of warranty claim data, and their use for prediction, has been a topic of active research in recent years. Field data comprising numbers of units returned under guarantee are examined, covering both situations in which the ages of the failed units are known and in which they are not. The latter case poses particular computational problems for likelihood-based methods because of the large number of feasible failure patterns that must be included as contributions to the likelihood function. For prediction of future warranty exposure, which is of central concern to the manufacturer, the Bayesian approach is adopted. For this, Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is developed.     

The behavior of the listener,generic extensions,and the communicative adequacy of verbal behavior

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior - Except for a few words, children first become listeners of a word before becoming speakers of the word. The analysis of listener behavior is therefore of...     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.     

Joint Attention,Self‐Recognition,and Neurocognitive Function in Toddlers

Recent studies have attempted to understand the processes involved in joint attention because of its relevance to both atypical and normal development. Data from a recent study of young children with autism suggests that performance on a delay nonmatch to sample (DNMS) task associated with ventromedial prefrontal functions, but not an A‐not‐B/delayed response task associated with dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, was related to joint attention skills (Dawson et al., 2002). Recent research also suggests that joint attention is associated with dorsalmedial brain systems linked to self‐monitoring (Mundy, 2003). This study investigated the relations among joint attention, DNMS, and self‐recognition performance in a longitudinal study of 39 normally developing toddlers from 14 to 18 months. The results indicated that development on the DNMS and self‐recognition tasks, but not a means end task, predicted joint attention at 18 months. Further analysis showed that the model was only significant for initiating joint attention (IJA). The implications of these results for the neuro‐development of IJA are discussed.     

Seven ways of causing the less developed countries' population problem to disappear—in theory

The ways to minimize the difficulties due to population and its growth to be found in current literature have been grouped under seven heads in a far from exhaustive listing:

1. Apply the perspective of rates rather than absolute numbers.
2. Annul the direct negative effects of population with surprising positive indirect effects.
3. Show that neither land nor physical capital is important for development; only labour and human capital count.
4. Exhibit past record of zero correlation between income increase and population increase.
5. Calculate net externality of population increase, but underestimate the externalities falling on women and especially on later generations.
6. Make models of the economy omitting the environment, i.e. implicitly assume the environment is infinite.
7. When all else fails declare that population growth is not bad in itself, but that all evils are due to bad policies—economic, ecological, or urban. Marx thought population growth damaging only under capitalism; now population growth is said to be made innocuous by capitalism.

     

Disruption in Parental Co-habitation and its Effects on Short-Term,Medium-Term,and Long-Term Outcomes of Adolescents

In this paper the relationships between a disruption in parental co-habitation and various categories of adolescent outcomes over multiple time horizons are explored. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), we estimated the effects of a change from living with both parents to just one, on academic and employment outcomes, the likelihood to indulge in risky behaviors, mental health outcomes and body mass index measures, from less than 1 year to over 14 years after the change. Propensity score matching methods were used to control for individual characteristics and pre-existing differences in the family environment that may increase the chances of separation, and the results are compared to those obtained using ordinary least squares or probit methods. Results showed evidence of adverse effects of living with one parent in the short term, medium term and long term. Adolescents living with one parent had lower academic achievement in all term lengths, poor mental health in the short to medium term, and were more likely to engage in risky behaviors in the medium to long term.