INSTITUTIONS,HOUSEHOLD CREDIT COMPOSITION,AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

We show that the negative effect of household credit growth on subsequent economic growth documented in the recent literature is not the same across countries. The effect is stronger in countries with weak institutions where the fraction of consumer credit in total household credit is greater. That is an important nuance as consumer credit is a sizable part of household credit in many emerging markets and its rapid buildup should be observed with the same caution as a rapid buildup in housing credit. (JEL G21, E32, E44)     

Finance and the Sources of Growth at Various Stages of Economic Development

This article studies the effects of financial development on the sources of growth in different groups of countries. Recent theoretical work shows that financial development may affect productivity and capital accumulation in different ways in industrial versus developing countries. This hypothesis is tested with panel data from 74 countries using GMM dynamic panel techniques. Results are consistent with the hypothesis: finance has a strong positive influence on productivity growth primarily in more developed economies. In less developed economies, the effect of finance on output growth occurs primarily through capital accumulation.     

The effects of siblings on the migration of women in two rural areas of Belgium and the Netherlands, 1829-1940

This study explores the extent to which the presence and activities of siblings shaped the chances of women migrating to rural and urban areas in two rural areas of Belgium and the Netherlands during the second half of the nineteenth and first decades of the twentieth century. Shared-frailty Cox proportional hazard analyses of longitudinal data from historical population registers show that siblings exerted an additive impact on women's migration, independently of temporal and household characteristics. Just how siblings influenced women's migration depended on regional modes of production and on employment opportunities. In the Zeeland region, sisters channelled each other into service positions. In the Pays de Herve, where men and women found industrial work in the Walloon cities, women were as much influenced by their brothers' activities. Evidence is found for two mechanisms explaining the effects of siblings: micro-economic notions of joint-household decision-making and social capital theory.     

A Disinflation Trade-Off: Speed Versus Final Destination

When introducing a new monetary regime designed to reduce inflation, does a central bank prefer more or fewer economic agents who form informed forecasts of inflation? The relevance of the question arises because the central bank can make a decision about how much information to disseminate about the nature of the new regime. We find that the central bank will prefer a higher proportion of agents who form rational expectations if it disinflates from a high level of inflation, but not so if it disinflates from a moderate or low inflation level.     

Who Really Wins? Efficacy of a Croatian Youth Gambling Prevention Program

This paper reports on the development and pilot evaluation of a Croatian school-based youth gambling prevention program “Who really wins?”. The program is aimed at minimizing risk and enhancing protective factors related to youth gambling. A short-term evaluation of the program was conducted with a sample of 190 first and second year high-school students (67.6% boys, aged 14–17 years; average age 15.61). An experimental design with two groups (Training vs. No Training) and two measurement sessions (pre-test and post-test sessions) was used to evaluate change in problem gambling awareness, cognitive distortions, knowledge of the nature of random events as well as in social skills. Results showed significant changes in the post-test sessions, which can be attributed to changes in the Training group. We observed a decrease in risk factors, namely better knowledge about gambling and less gambling related cognitive distortions. Immediate effects on protective factors such as problem solving skills, refusal skills, and general self-efficacy were not observed. Findings also show program effects to be the same for both boys and girls, students from different types of schools, for those with different learning aptitudes, as well as for those at different risk levels with regard to their gambling, which speaks in favour of the program’s universality. The program had no iatrogenic effects on behaviour change and shows promise as an effective tool for youth gambling prevention. Future research and a long-term evaluation are needed to determine whether the observed changes are also linked to behavioural change.     

Giving Voice to the Search for Meaning: An Interview With Ruth Schmidt Neven

Ruth Schmidt Neven is a child and adult psychotherapist who trained at the Tavistock Institute in England. She worked in the UK for over 20 years in child and family mental health services of the NHS. During this time, she was responsible for setting up Exploring Parenthood, an organisation which focused on parenting issues. Since migrating to Australia in 1989, Ruth has remained committed to promoting knowledge and understanding about child and family development in the broader community through her clinical practice, training courses and writing. She is currently the director of the Centre for Child and Family Development in Melbourne.     

The Rise of Kenyan Supermarkets and the Evolution of their Horticulture Product Procurement Systems

Supermarkets are rapidly penetrating urban food retail in Kenya and spreading well beyond their initially tiny market niche among the urban middle class into the food markets of lower‐income groups. Having penetrated processed and staple food markets much earlier and faster than fresh foods, they have recently begun to make inroads into the fresh fruits and vegetables category. Supermarkets in Kenya already buy about half the volume of produce exported, and thus represent a significant new ‘dynamic market’ opportunity for farmers. The important changes in their procurement systems bring significant opportunities and challenges for small farmers, and have implications for agricultural diversification and rural development programmes and policies.     

Intercultural education and Roma in Croatia

Since the beginning of their settlement in the 14th century, the Roma have formed an indigenous minority in Croatia, and also in the region as a whole. A specific tribal system (family, vitcha-extended family, big vitcha-family association, tribal group) and economic organization have caused dispersion, specialization and the partial loss of their national identity. The research project Genealogy and the Transfer Model of Interculturalism, through its empirical research on a stratified sample of secondary school students, focused on existing stereotypes towards the Roma. The results indicate a limited acceptance of the Roma culture (language, art, history, customs), as well as a considerable need to distance oneself from the Roma themselves (using a modified Bogardus scale). This points to the need for intercultural education for all pupils in Croatia. The implementation of an experimental Summer School for Roma children in Croatia and the Romany Educational Community represent innovative forms of education for Roma children. Together with the publication of the Roma newsletter Romano Akharipe, The Roma Voice and Nevo Drom (The New Way), these constitute the first steps towards the development of a Croatian educational model for the Roma. The creation of a specific educational system for the Roma plays an important role in the formation and structuralization of the Roma national community within the intercultural environment that exists in Croatia.