Bayesian analysis of discrete time warranty data

Summary.  The analysis of warranty claim data, and their use for prediction, has been a topic of active research in recent years. Field data comprising numbers of units returned under guarantee are examined, covering both situations in which the ages of the failed units are known and in which they are not. The latter case poses particular computational problems for likelihood-based methods because of the large number of feasible failure patterns that must be included as contributions to the likelihood function. For prediction of future warranty exposure, which is of central concern to the manufacturer, the Bayesian approach is adopted. For this, Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is developed.     

Normes,théorie des jeux et pratiques participatives: le poids réel des travailleurs dans les économies libérales

Les auteurs analysent l'effet de la directive européenne relative à l'information et à la consultation des travailleurs sur les pratiques participatives en entreprise au Royaume‐Uni et en Irlande. Dans une analyse conceptuelle et empirique, qui fait appel à la théorie des jeux, ils formulent trois hypothèses explicatives, qu'ils cherchent à vérifier avec des données qualitatives recueillies auprès de seize entreprises. La démonstration permet de comprendre pourquoi la coopération, gage de gains mutuels, n'est pas la solution qui l'emporte dans les pays examinés, et elle nous en dit un peu plus sur l'effet des normes sur la gestion participative dans les économies de marché libérales.     

Comparison style, physical self-perceptions, and fitness among older women

This study examined the relationships between older women's comparison styles, physical self-perceptions, and functional fitness. Participants were community-dwelling women (N = 102, age 65-99) living in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Individuals were categorized as relying primarily on social comparisons, temporal comparisons, or a combination of both styles. Also of interest was whether individuals evaluated themselves positively or negatively when making comparisons. Participants who evaluated themselves positively as compared with others were found to have higher levels of physical self-perception. Analyses revealed that women who relied primarily on temporal comparisons had higher self-perceptions of their functional ability than those who relied on a combination of comparison styles. An avoidance of both temporal and social comparisons was also related to higher levels of physical self-perception.     

Why combatants fight: the Irish Republican Army and the Bosnian Serb Army compared

This article investigates what motivates combatants to fight in non-conventional armed organizations. Drawing on interviews with ex-combatants from the Army of the Serbian Republic in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Provisional Irish Republican Army, the article compares the role of nationalist ideology, coercive organizational structures, and small group solidarity in these two organizations. Our analysis indicates that coercion played a limited role in both armed forces: in the VRS coercion was relevant mostly in the recruitment phase, while in the IRA its direct impact was only discernible during armed operations. We also find that although both organizations are seen as being highly motivated by nationalist ideas, the picture is much more complex and nationalism is less present than expected. The study demonstrates that nationalism played a relatively marginal role in combatants’ motivation to fight. Instead our research indicates that individualist motivations, small group solidarity, and local networks dominate.     

The Politics of Women's Economic Independence

We identify the political conditions that shape the economicposition of married/cohabiting women and of the economicallymost vulnerable group of women—single mothers. Specifically,we examine the determinants of reductions in single mothers'poverty rate due to taxes and transfers, and women's wages relativeto spouses'/ partners' wages. The Luxembourg Income Study archiveyields an unbalanced panel with 71 observations on 15 countries.The principal determinants of poverty reduction due to taxesand transfers are left government, constitutional veto points,and welfare generosity. The relative wage of women in couplesis a function mainly of female labor force participation, parttime work among women, and women's mobilization. In explainingthe causal pathways to these outcomes, we highlight the interrelationshipsof welfare state, care, and labor market policies.     

Family Caregiver Communication in the ICU: Toward a Relational View of Health Literacy

We interviewed 18 family caregivers about their communication experiences in the ICUs at an urban hospital. Analysis of their narratives suggests health literacy is important in family caregiver/healthcare provider communication, especially as complicated illnesses move the caregiver deeper into decision making. Using the domains of Yuen et al.’s conceptual model of caregiver health literacy (2015), we identified three themes within the context of ICU communication: agency, coordinated communication, and caregiver’s evolving role. We saw family caregivers negotiating domains of health literacy as they built upon knowledge of the patient’s needs, their rights as family caregivers, and the hierarchy of the professional staff. We found that these narratives represent co-created, or relational communication, rather than individual health literacy skills. Conceptualized in the transaction of relationship, health literacy is enacted; it is socially constructed and is the scaffolding upon which family caregivers make decisions, care for their loved one, and care for themselves.     

Older adults' narratives about a flood disaster: Resilience, coherence, and personal identity

Older adults are a vulnerable group in a disaster and are more at risk of adverse effects as a result. This paper draws on the use of narrative theory in health and gerontology studies to examine how a disruptive disaster was storied. Narrative interviews were conducted with nine older adults aged over 65 years who had recently experienced a flood disaster. The participants' narratives about the disruptive event were integrated with past personal events that spanned more than seven decades. The disaster became a reference point for previous challenging experiences, which created biographical continuity, coherence and order over time. Furthermore, the disaster stories were about biography and identity, and showed how older adults made sense of the flood from a life-course perspective. The use of narrative approaches provides an insight into how the flood disaster was experienced, and reveals how four older adults storied their experiences of a significant life challenge.     

Cramér‐von Mises statistics for discrete distributions with unknown parameters

Choulakian, Lockhart & Stephens (1994) proposed Cramér‐von Mises statistics for testing fit to a fully specified discrete distribution. The authors give slightly modified definitions for these statistics and determine their asymptotic behaviour in the case when unknown parameters in the distribution must be estimated from the sample data. They also present two examples of applications.