Applicability of a Neuroprobabilistic Integral Risk Index for the Environmental Management of Polluted Areas: A Case Study

Recently, we developed a GIS-Integrated Integral Risk Index (IRI) to assess human health risks in areas with presence of environmental pollutants. Contaminants were previously ranked by applying a self-organizing map (SOM) to their characteristics of persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity in order to obtain the Hazard Index (HI). In the present study, the original IRI was substantially improved by allowing the entrance of probabilistic data. A neuroprobabilistic HI was developed by combining SOM and Monte Carlo analysis. In general terms, the deterministic and probabilistic HIs followed a similar pattern: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and light polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were the pollutants showing the highest and lowest values of HI, respectively. However, the bioaccumulation value of heavy metals notably increased after considering a probability density function to explain the bioaccumulation factor. To check its applicability, a case study was investigated. The probabilistic integral risk was calculated in the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain), where an environmental program has been carried out since 2002. The risk change between 2002 and 2005 was evaluated on the basis of probabilistic data of the levels of various pollutants in soils. The results indicated that the risk of the chemicals under study did not follow a homogeneous tendency. However, the current levels of pollution do not mean a relevant source of health risks for the local population. Moreover, the neuroprobabilistic HI seems to be an adequate tool to be taken into account in risk assessment processes.     

Age difference asymmetry and a two-sex perspective

The paper shows that (a) the age difference between spouses can be and has been different for men and women; (b) male and female age differences can exhibit different trends; (c) the discrepancy is due to remarriage; (d) the age difference fluctuates substantially through time; (e) trends in the age difference are not readily interpretable as reflecting change in the relative status of the sexes; and (f) that trends in the age difference may be linked to marriage market conditions. The paper argues that marriage and fertility data for both men and women are increasingly necessary because of rises in marital breakdown and the associated divergence of the experience of men and women.Cet article montre que (a) les différences d'âge entre époux peuvent être et ont été dissemblables pour les hommes et les femmes; (b) les différences d'âge masculines et féminines peuvent présenter des tendances différentes; (c) la divergence est due aux remariages; (d) les différences d'âge varient de façon importante au cours du temps; (e) les tendances dans les différences d'âge ne sont pas simplement interprétables en termes de changements dans le statut relatif des sexes; et (f) les tendances dans les différences d'âge peuvent être reliées aux conditions du marché matrimonial. L'article montre que les données sur le mariage et la fécondité à la fois des hommes et des femmes, sont de plus en plus nécessaires du fait de l'accroissement des ruptures d'unions et de la divergence des expériences masculines et féminines, qui lui est associée.

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An earlier version of this paper, His and her age gap: asymmetry in the age difference between partners, was a contributed paper to Session F27 of the General Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, New Delhi, 20–27 September 1989. A longer version appeared as LS Working Paper 70, issued by City University Social Statistics Research Unit, September 1990.     

Period Parity Progression Ratios and Birth Intervals in England and Wales, 1941–1971: A Synthetic Life Table Analysis

A method is presented for analysing maternity history data to provide period estimates of parity progression ratios, birth intervals and related indices. This is applied to a sample of the marriage and maternity histories from the Census of England and Wales of 1971 and shows: (a) a general increase through the 1950s and into the 1960s in period estimates of marriage and parity progression ratios, especially in the progression from first to second birth; (b) a general acceleration of fertility with, again, the second birth interval becoming particularly short and compact; and (c) very steep declines in third and fourth birth progression ratios from the mid-1960s. Birth interval distributions altered during the period examined. Decomposition of a progression-based total fertility index shows change in the ratios for lower birth orders to have dominated the fertility upswing and declines in ratios for higher birth orders to have initiated the subsequent decline.     

Expected fair allocation in farsighted network formation

I consider situations in which a group of players extracts a value if they organise themselves in different network structures, and I define a solution concept to describe the decentralised decision that determines the network formation process and the allocation of the value. I demonstrate that there is a solution concept satisfying discounted expected versions of pairwise stability (Jackson and Wolinsky J Econ Theory 71:44–74, 1996) and fairness (Myerson Math Oper Res 2:225–229, 1977a) jointly with the requirement that the allocation rule be component efficient if the players’ discount factor is sufficiently low.     

A hierarchy of lorenz curves based on the generalized tukey's lambda distribution

A hierarchy of Lorenz curves based on the generalized Tukey's Lambda distribution is proposed. Representations of the corresponding distribution and density function are also provided, together with popular inequality measures. Estimation methods are suggested. Finally, a comparison with other parametric families of Lorenz curves is established.     

Bernoulli Processes with Non-Positive Correlations

We deal with sequences of dependent Bernoulli variables with non positive correlations. Some special models for 1-dependent and 2-dependent 0–1 valued variables are analyzed, namely Bernoulli variables obtained by clipping a linear combination of iid variables. Formulas describing dependence of their correlation function on the clipping parameters are derived. The lower bound for the sum of autocorrelations of Bernoulli variables obtained by clipping a Gaussian process is provided.     

Attributions of Blame among Victims of Child Sexual Abuse: Findings from a Community Sample

ABSTRACT

According to the attribution theory, negative outcomes of child sexual abuse (CSA) are thought to vary depending on whether CSA victims attribute the abuse to internal or external factors, respectively, self-blame and perpetrator-blame. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify abuse characteristics and attitudes that influence blame attributions among CSA victims from a community sample. Data from respondents with a history of CSA (N = 1,496) have been used in predicting blame attributions; perpetrator-blame, self-blame, or both. Results from a multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that attitudes toward gender roles had a significant effect on blame: victims were more likely to blame themselves when they endorsed more conservative gender attitudes than victims with more liberal attitudes. Implications for this finding are discussed.     

Women's paid work and the timing of births

It has been suggested that work-motivated women may shorten their birth intervals to allow a faster return to the workforce. This paper: (i) considers the circumstances under which such contraction would be expected; (ii) argues that British conditions in the 1940s to 1970s were favourable to the adoption of this strategy, among others; (iii) discusses some methodological issues arising in the empirical treatment of the question; and (iv) presents the results of analyses of work and maternity history information, which suggest that during the post-war period, labour-force participation was associated with both a contraction and a lengthening of birth intervals.     

The social care needs of unaccompanied minors: the Irish experience

This article examines forms of care which can be used by social workers to best respond to unaccompanied minors (UAMs) given their complex needs and particular vulnerability combined with their agency and resilience. The vulnerabilities and agency/resilience of UAMs are examined in the context of multiple borders (cultural, political and physical) being negotiated by these young people. While it focuses on Ireland as an example of a country where care provision for UAMs has improved considerably in recent years, it draws on both the Irish and international literatures. This article critically analyses the shift from hostel to foster care provision for UAMs in Ireland and explores benefits and difficulties associated with using foster care, while also discussing the use of alternative forms of care, such as residential care. We argue that social workers must always give consideration to a range of care options, to the needs of the individual child and to both their vulnerability and their resilience/agency. This is especially true given the diversity within the population of UAMs. Given the increasing numbers of refugees entering Europe and the mix of provision for UAMs across the continent, the Irish situation may represent a useful site for examination of their care.