Ever since gompertz

In 1825 British actuary Benjamin Gompertz made a simple but important observation that a law of geometrical progression pervades large portions of different tables of mortality for humans. The simple formula he derived describing the exponential rise in death rates between sexual maturity and old age is commonly referred to as the Gompertz equation—a formula that remains a valuable tool in demography and in other scientific disciplines. Gompertz’s observation of a mathematical regularity in the life table led him to believe in the presence of a law of mortality that explained why common age patterns of death exist. This law of mortality has captured the attention of scientists for the past 170 years because it was the first among what are now several reliable empirical tools for describing the dying-out process of many living organisms during a significant portion of their life spans. In this paper we review the literature on Gompertz’slaw of mortality and discuss the importance of his observations and insights in light of research on aging that has taken place since then.     

Misdirection on the road to Shangri-La

Will life expectancy in the United States rise or fall in this century? The implications of either scenario are far reaching. We contend that the rise of childhood obesity in the United States in the past three decades has been so dramatic that it will soon lead to higher than expected death rates at middle ages and a possible decline in life expectancy by midcentury. The most detrimental health and longevity effects will not be seen for decades--a phenomenon that cannot be detected by current methods used to forecast life expectancy or estimate the number of deaths currently attributable to obesity. This scenario contrasts sharply with the views of mathematical demographers who generate forecasts by relying on the assumption that the U.S. pattern of longevity will follow that of other longer lived nations and on the extrapolation of historical trends in life expectancy into the future.     

A Biodemographic Interpretation of Life Span

The life span of individuals and the life expectancy of the populations they comprise have always been topics of interest to scientists and the lay population. In modern times, forecasts of life span and life expectancy have become particularly important public policy issues because of their influence on the future solvency of age‐entitlement programs. The authors present a brief discussion of the origin of the notion of life span, discuss its relevance and importance in light of recent developments in the emerging field of the biodemography of aging, and explore the theoretical and biological forces that influence the duration of life of sexually reproducing species.     

A Realist View of Aging,Mortality, and Future Longevity

Differences in methodology and philosophy have led scientists analyzing the same mortality data to arrive at very different conclusions about the behavior of mortality trajectories, the nature of aging, and the future of human longevity. This note describes the authors’views on these issues, which taken together can be termed a “realist” position. In this view, life expectancy is unlikely to exceed an average of 85 years absent significant advances in the control of aging. We identify a number of myths that have been attached to our work: 1) Reaching an average life expectancy of 85 years is a pessimistic outlook for human longevity, 2) Species possess an intrinsic mortality schedule that cannot be modified by human intervention, 3) Realist scenarios of the future course of human longevity are based on notions of biological determinism, 4) Realists assert that there is an age beyond which there can be no survivors, 5) Hypothesized biological barriers to longer life spans have been scientifically studied and refuted, and 6) Realists claim that life expectancy at birth cannot exceed 85 years. In dispelling these myths, we hope to provide a more accurate representation of our school of biodemographic thought.     

Infectious diseases -- new and ancient threats to world health

Infectious and parasitic diseases remain a leading cause of death and disability in developing countries and are re-emerging as a serious health problem in developed countries. Outbreaks of Ebola, dengue hemorrhagic fever, cholera, and bubonic plague have occurred in low-income countries and multidrug-resistant organisms have surfaced throughout the world. Since 1973, over 28 new disease-causing microbes have been identified. This issue of "Population Bulletin" analyzes the impact of factors such as population growth, urbanization, migration, poverty, travel, agricultural practices, climate changes, natural disasters, and medical technology on the resurgence of infectious and parasitic diseases as well as the influence of diseases such as AIDS on population dynamics and socioeconomic development. Most of these diseases could be prevented, cured, or eradicated with known public health measures. National governments can help reduce poverty, step up immunization programs, and lessen the chances of introducing new diseases. Nongovernmental organizations can disseminate preventive knowledge and monitor disease outbreaks. The medical profession can strengthen infection control precautions and institute surveillance of the use of antibiotics and other antimicrobial agents. Since the geographic isolation that used to contain disease outbreaks has been replaced by permeable international borders, the campaign against infectious and parasitic diseases must be global.     

Forensic psychiatric nursing. Discursive practices and the emergence of a specialty

1. While some authors argue that specialization is a threat to holistic nursing practice, others suggest that specialization is not only desirable and inevitable but should follow a rigorous process, including specific educational curriculum and examination procedures. 2. Two opposing views regarding forensic nursing are found in contemporary nursing literature. Some authors resist the discourse of specialization in nursing, while the discursive practices of others (e.g., leaders in forensic psychiatric nursing) could reflect a desire for power. 3. Using a poststructuralist approach, the controversy that has accompanied the development of forensic nursing through discursive practices is analyzed.     

Misdirection on the road to Shangri-La

Will life expectancy in the United States rise or fall in this century? The implications of either scenario are far reaching. We contend that the rise of childhood obesity in the United States in the past three decades has been so dramatic that it will soon lead to higher than expected death rates at middle ages and a possible decline in life expectancy by midcentury. The most detrimental health and longevity effects will not be seen for decades--a phenomenon that cannot be detected by current methods used to forecast life expectancy or estimate the number of deaths currently attributable to obesity. This scenario contrasts sharply with the views of mathematical demographers who generate forecasts by relying on the assumption that the U.S. pattern of longevity will follow that of other longer lived nations and on the extrapolation of historical trends in life expectancy into the future.     

Aging down under

A new International Research Centre for Healthy Ageing and Longevity (IRCHAL) has been created in Australia with initial funding from a philanthropic family--that of John and Noah Weller. This center will be akin to the Center for Advanced Study at Stanford University where scientists and clinicians/geriatricians can spend extended time periods interacting and doing their research. The development of IRCHAL is an explicit effort to blend traditional scientific approaches to the study of aging with evidence-based natural and complementary medicine. At the heart of this new organization are annual international scientific conferences. The next meeting (third in the series) will be held in Melbourne, Australia, on 28 to 30 April 2006.