System Stress and the Persistence* of Emergent Organizations

A model facilitating the prediction of organizational persistence or dissolution is presented through a series of propositions. Environmental change, community demands for service, organizational capacity, formalization, and task orientations are identified as important dimensions in determining the probability of organizational emergence, maintenance, or demise. The emergence and development of Neighbors in Need (NIN); a Seattle, Washington based welfare organization, is described to illustrate the viability of the model. NIN's career pattern shows a persistence beyond the period of environmental disruption because of the long-term progressive nature of the system's stress, NIN's formalization, and its task specificity. But a reduction in system stress, the adoption of a more diffuse goal, and the organization's failure to promote interorganizational relations with the local agencies indicates the probable demise of the NIN.     

Certain Problems in Election Survey Methodology

This article describes some solutions to common problems inpre-election surveys drawing upon Gallup Poll experience. Ittouches upon problems in sampling, estimation, response validity,the undecided, measuring likelihood to vote, and measuring latetrends in voter preference. In conclusion it cites demonstrablegains in accuracy that have followed application of the solutionsdescribed.Paul Perry is Vice Chairman, The Gallup Organization,Inc.