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Dennis Wagenaar Tiaravanni Hermawan Marc J. C. van den Homberg Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts Heidi Kreibich Hans de Moel Laurens M. Bouwer 《Risk analysis》2021,41(1):37-55
Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer. 相似文献
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In recent years, the Dutch healthcare sector has been confronted with increased competition. Not only are financial resources scarce, Dutch hospitals also need to compete with other hospitals in the same geographic area to attract and retain talented employees due to considerable labour shortages. However, four hospitals operating in the same region are cooperating to cope with these shortages by developing a joint Talent Management Pool. ‘Coopetiton’ is a concept used for simultaneous cooperation and competition. In this paper, a case study is performed in order to enhance our understanding of coopetition. Among other things, the findings suggest that perceptions of organizational actors on competition differ and might hinder cooperative innovation with competitors, while perceived shared problems and resource constraints stimulate coopetition. We reflect on the current coopetition literature in light of the research findings, which have implications for future research on this topic. 相似文献
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de Jong Petra W. Caarls Kim de Valk Helga A. G. 《Population research and policy review》2022,41(2):671-694
Population Research and Policy Review - The welfare state can be perceived as a safety net which helps individuals adjust to situations of risk or transition. Starting from this idea of the welfare... 相似文献
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Statistics and Computing - This article focuses on the challenging problem of efficiently detecting changes in mean within multivariate data sequences. Multivariate changepoints can be detected by... 相似文献
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Sant’Anna Annibal Parracho de Freitas Siqueira Sadok Menna Barreto Márcia 《Social indicators research》2020,148(3):733-746
Social Indicators Research - This paper analyses the Human Development Index (HDI) time series from 2010 to 2017. An alternative index is studied, which combines the same components of the HDI by... 相似文献
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Nairobi ME Network African Evaluation Association Secretariat Rseau Nigrian de Suivi et Evaluation Cape Verde Evaluation Network Rseau Malagache de Suivi et Evaluation Comoros Evaluation Network Eritrean Evaluation Network Malawi ME Network Rseau National de Chercheurs et Evaluateurs de Burundi Rwanda Evaluation Network UNICEF Eastern Southern Africa Region ME Network 《Evaluation and program planning》2002,25(4)
A review of the US ‘program evaluation standards’ (PES), undertaken in a series of workshops and meetings of networks of evaluators in Africa, resulted in modifications to those standards. The result was presented to a plenary session of the Inaugural Conference of the African Evaluation Association in September 1999, attended by over 300 evaluators from 35 countries. The AfrEA Conference decided that a systematic effort should be made to produce a list of African evaluation guidelines, similar to the PES, and that this checklist should be reviewed by national evaluation associations and networks in Africa and field tested in several countries. Ten national and regional networks and associations suggested modifications to the text and endorsed the final version of the guidelines. 相似文献